Recently, on a business trip, I heard some things, saw some things, and shared my personal impressions. Some words may not sound good, and I hope not to be harmonized by the platform.
According to news from a former colleague who is now working at Microsoft, Microsoft’s next-generation operating system, Windows 12, will deeply integrate AI. If coupled with its Office family bucket, Microsoft’s artificial intelligence will fully dominate the desktop computing market. The result is a return to the glory days of the 1990s. Therefore, there should not be many opportunities left for desktop products. If you have no strength, don’t come in. If you come in, let’s see how to make differentiated steering. In this process, the most injured should be Google, its main product: Google search engine will face higher-dimensional competition from AI, and it will be a high probability that it will decline.
In the computing power chip market, Nvidia GPU will continue to be a god-like existence. At least in the next few years, no one can surpass it. There will be more and more application scenarios such as computing power centers and data centers. Manufacturers continue to use Nvidia GPU chips. Coupled with the industrial ecological moat formed by CUDA, manufacturers that can surpass Nvidia in the future, or even close to Nvidia, are currently invisible.
In the CPU market, AMD’s generation already has AI cores, and Intel’s next generation will also add AI. The monopoly of the CPU duopoly will continue.
On the other hand, in the domestic market, because of the emergence of Xinchuang, major domestic manufacturers have all focused on this field, and do not give any opportunities to start-ups that lack funds and connections. All kinds of quick-witted people stirred up the situation and gained the most benefits, but they didn't bring out many high-quality products to the market. If they are still allowed to continue to be stubborn and do not want to make progress, facing foreign competing products, after several rounds of iterations in the future, users will vote with their feet. I just hope that there will be no such thing as a big fund.
With the deep involvement of several foreign technology companies, mainly Yingjiang's technology companies, in AI, the era of domestic brainless general-purpose large-scale models will soon end. As a result, just like the home appliance, PC, and automobile industries in China back then, there may be only two or three companies with real products and strength left to continue to compete with foreign manufacturers.
Driven by GPT for nearly a year, AI open source is the general trend. After open source, the development threshold is rapidly lowering, and the refinement of industry applications is accelerating. In addition to man-machine dialogue and painting, AI applications in the consulting industry, such as law and accounting, will be the first to be enriched.
Whether it is chips, AI models, or operating systems, there is really not much time left for domestic manufacturers, and everyone should have a sense of crisis. If the AI field continues to widen the gap, it will be very difficult to catch up. Especially for AI chips, the existence of most GPU developers is better than none, and the remaining few capable ones are all lingering in FP32, which is not at the same level as Nvidia's FP64 AI chips. Sadly, casings and modifications are emerging one after another, and there are almost no original ones. It can be done from the perspective of products and publicity in the early stage, but it is not an option in the long run. I just hope that they will quickly come up with competitive products and consolidate domestic AI computing power chips. The poor computing power and poor performance caused our LAXCUS distributed operating system to support chips from domestic GPU manufacturers, and users refused to use them. Perhaps it is a good way to merge and reorganize them and concentrate resources to storm a hill, as do other fields in ICT.
I hope that in the future, there will be names of domestic GPU computing power manufacturers in this list.
Recently, it has also noticed that some industrial parks in various places are attracting investment. What's interesting is that after the epidemic, the investment attraction of high-tech industrial parks in various places has become more urgent for projects to be able to generate money and realize quick cash. Last year it was the metaverse, today it is artificial intelligence, if the trend changes next year, I don’t know what it will be replaced with. There is a third- and fourth-tier small town, and the requirement is that Nobel Prize winners are given priority. Considering that there are only two Nobel Prize winners in China, Mr. Tu Youyou is 93 years old, and only Mr. Mo Yan is left. The old man went to the industrial park to create a high-tech "Big Breasts and Wide Buttocks"?
Across the Pacific Ocean, the Yingjiang family's anxiety towards us is beyond words. Various high-tech suppressions are still increasing, and they are becoming more and more unscrupulous and omniscient, with an attitude of going all out. That clearly means that I would rather give up a quarter of the global market than your RMB, or let your high-tech develop. The meaning of floristry is to make money. If you let the masters of Congress decide, the shortest is to give up the RMB you got, and the farthest is that if you wait for the flower growers to achieve domestic substitution, you will be forced to hand over a quarter of the global market. Micron is an example. Seizing money is like killing parents, so recently several major technology companies in Yingjiang's family have been lobbying in turn, among which Nvidia is particularly hardworking. Soon there should be a compromise between them.
Colleagues who are climbing the technology tree in 996 and 007, time is really short, please continue to work hard! ! !