118 pages / 80,000 words (download attached) | In-depth report on the global intelligent connected car industry: the future has come to the era of intelligent connected cars [Huaxi Automobile Cui Yan Team]

In the era of intelligent connected vehicles, car companies will shift from manufacturing to creation, waiting for the great changes brought about by the integration of intelligent connected vehicles and electrification. The future has come, so grasp the wave.

Author: Cui Yan team of Huaxi Automobile

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introduction

Core point of view:

New energy vehicles are the best carrier for intelligent networking, and electrification is accelerating:

The electrification level of new energy vehicles is higher, laying a better foundation for the development of intelligent network technology. Tesla, Volkswagen, BYD and other car companies have launched benchmark models on the market, leading the trend of electric vehicle technology.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the world has seen a scale from the beginning of 2010 to 2.3% in 2019, showing a trend of accelerating penetration, but it is still at a low level and has a large room for growth;
In 2020, China's new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be extended for two years as scheduled, and the intensity and pace of subsidies will slow down. Overseas, take Europe as an example. In 2020, carbon emission regulations will enter the fourth stage, and the superimposed new energy vehicle subsidies will increase. accelerate.

Policy promotion + the industry chain is becoming more and more mature, driving the accelerated development of intelligent networked vehicles:

Coordination between intelligent policy setting and networking: the ADAS industry chain is maturing, the penetration rate is accelerating, and the market size is nearly 100 billion yuan; 5G commercial and technology giants drive the Internet of Vehicles to speed up, and the market size reaches one trillion yuan;
Unmanned driving commercialization is first implemented, and multiple scenarios such as freight, logistics, ports, and mines are blossoming, and the market scale exceeds one trillion yuan. Cost reduction + safety requirements + environmental protection advantages promote the commercialization of RoboTaxi, Waymo, Baidu, Tesla, etc. have entered the game;
The evolution of the underlying technology represented by the upgrade of software and hardware architecture and the iteration of automotive chips has become the endogenous driving force for the development of smart cars.

The two routes of global competition are parallel

From a global perspective, major countries such as Europe, America, Japan, and China have issued regulations to accelerate the development of smart cars. Among them, Europe, America, and Japan focus on the intelligentization of bicycles, while China emphasizes the coordination of intelligence and networking. Tesla is a leader in the commercialization of autonomous driving, and has developed a unique approach to promote the development of intelligence. In October 2014, it launched Autopilot 1.0 to realize the commercialization of the automatic driving system for the first time, and is moving towards L3. The alliance of traditional car companies has become a trend, including Volkswagen-Ford, Daimler-BMW, GM-Honda, etc., sharing technology and promoting commercialization. The loading rate of L2 has increased significantly, and L3 is beginning to penetrate. However, technology companies represented by Waymo and Baidu are in place in one step, taking the lead in RoboTaxi and unmanned logistics to promote the commercialization of L4 and above unmanned driving.

1.1 Policies promote two routes in parallel

1.1.1 Classification: Intelligence is based on the US SAE standard, and the network connection has not yet been planned and agreed

The intelligent classification of automobiles is mainly based on the American SAE standard. At present, the global classification of self-driving cars is mainly based on the classification standards established by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE International, Society of Automotive Engineers). According to the classification standard of SAE, automatic driving technology is divided into six levels: L0-L5:

Level 0 (no automation): The human driver is required to fully operate the car, and can be assisted by warning and protection systems during driving;
Level 1 (driving support): Provides driving support for one of the steering wheel and acceleration and deceleration operations, and the other is operated by a human driver;
Level 2 (partial automation): provide driving support for multiple operations in the steering wheel and acceleration and deceleration, and others are operated by human drivers;
Level 3 (conditional automation): All driving operations are completed by the unmanned driving system, and the human driver provides appropriate operations according to the system request;
Level 4 (highly automated): All driving operations can be completed by the driverless system in limited roads and environments;
Level 5 (full automation): No human driver is required to operate, and it is completely operated by the unmanned driving system, which can be switched to manual operation mode when necessary.

On March 9, 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also released the "Recommended National Standard for Automobile Driving Automation Classification" on its official website. In the "Automotive Driving Automation Classification (Draft for Approval)", China's automobile driving automation is divided into 6 levels. : (There is an attachment to the draft for approval in the different announcements)

Level 0 (Emergency Assistance): Not without driving automation, including emergency assistance functions such as LDW (Lane Departure Warning), FCW (Forward Collision Warning), AEB (Automatic Emergency Braking), cruise control, electronic stability control, etc. included;
Level 1 (partial driving assistance): with ACC (adaptive cruise control) or LKA (lane keeping assist function);
Level 2 (combined driving assistance): with both ACC and LKA functions;
Level 3 (conditional autonomous driving): the driver needs to take over the faulty car when the system fails or exceeds the working conditions;
Level 4 (highly automated driving): still belongs to automatic driving with restrictions, but the takeover task does not require human participation when the car fails, and unmanned taxis belong to level 4 automatic driving;
Level 5 (fully autonomous driving): The same basic functions as Level 4 can be achieved, but there are no restrictions on operating conditions, and the system can independently complete all operations and decisions.

Comparing the two versions of the standards in China and the United States, the difference is mainly reflected in the partial definition of L0-L2. In the Chinese version of the standard, the "object and event detection and response" of level 0 to level 2 autonomous driving is jointly completed by the driver and the system, while in the US SAE standard, the OEDR (object and event detection and response) of L0 to L2 autonomous driving and decision-making tasks) are all done by the driver.

According to the content announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, if the "Vehicle Driving Automation Classification" is approved, it will be implemented on January 1, 2021. At that time, China will officially have a national standard for autonomous driving. We believe that the promulgation of national standards is conducive to the implementation of autonomous driving technology, and various companies can make targeted deployments, which will promote the accelerated mass production of smart cars of different levels.

Networking grading has not been planned consistently. In March 2019, the European Road Transport Research Advisory Council (ERTRAT) updated and released the "Connected Automated Driving Roadmap" (Networked Automated Driving Technology Roadmap), which added a new version of the Connected Automated Driving Roadmap. The content of autonomous driving, and clearly put forward the networked automatic driving based on the support of digital infrastructure, emphasizing collaborative interconnection, and combining the network technology of infrastructure with the intelligence level of vehicles.

In 2016, the Society of Automotive Engineers of China released the "Technology Roadmap for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles". There are three levels of information interaction, network-connected collaborative perception, and network-connected collaborative decision-making and control. Among them, network-connected collaborative sensing and network-connected collaborative decision-making and control describe the real-time and reliable acquisition of surrounding traffic environment information, and form vehicle-vehicle, vehicle-road And the collaborative perception, collaborative decision-making and control among more traffic participants embodies the concept of collaborative and intelligent control technology between vehicles and roads.

1.1.2 Policies: The world is accelerating the promotion of autonomous driving. China emphasizes the coordination of intelligence and networking

The global acceleration of autonomous driving. In 2019, the United States officially released the guidance document "Ensuring America's Leading Position in Autonomous Driving: Autonomous Vehicle 4.0" (AV4.0). During the iterative upgrade process from AV1.0 to AV4.0, the United States' attitude towards autonomous driving has gradually changed from conservative With the transition to openness, the regulatory power of government departments has gradually weakened, and more relying on market forces to promote its development. In 2020, the European Union will release the "Guidelines for the Exemption Process of the EU Automated Driving Vehicle License Exemption" to prepare for the mass production and access of L3/L4 autonomous driving vehicles.

China develops intelligent connected vehicles, emphasizing the synergy between intelligence and networking. In June 2017, the National Standards Committee and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guidelines for the Construction of the National Internet of Vehicles Industry Standard System (Intelligent Networked Vehicles)", establishing that China's development of intelligent networked vehicles will "focus on automobiles and focus on intelligence, Taking into account the overall idea of "connection", establish a standard system for intelligent networked vehicles, and gradually form a unified and coordinated system architecture. On February 24, 2020, 11 ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly released the "Smart Vehicle Innovation and Development Strategy", emphasizing the synergy between intelligence and networking, and the Internet of Vehicles deserves attention.

1.1.3 Bicycle Intelligence Two Roads Parallel, Internet of Vehicles Facilitates Large-Scale Application

Bicycle intelligence has 2 different technical routes:

Gradually improve the automation level of automobile driving mainly by car companies: the degree of automobile automation continues to increase, and it is developing towards the intelligent direction of assisted driving, semi-automatic driving, highly automated driving and fully automatic driving. Among them, Tesla and traditional car companies have slightly different paths, and Tesla is faster than traditional car companies to iterate technology.
The development route of unmanned driving technology based on technology companies: the main feature of unmanned driving is to skip the idea of gradual development of automobile automation and directly realize the unmanned driving of vehicles. The application field can be expanded to closed/semi-closed mines, Special scenarios such as docks and large logistics fields are represented by Google’s Waymo, GM’s Cruise, and Ford’s Argo.ai.

The Internet of Vehicles facilitates the large-scale application of autonomous driving. Automobile networking refers to enabling automobiles to have the ability to sense the environment, make decisions, and control movement based on communication and interconnection. One of the core technologies is vehicle-road coordination, that is, through vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V), vehicle-to-road (V2I), and vehicle-to-road Human (V2P) and other information interaction and sharing, so that the car and the surrounding environment can cooperate and cooperate. When the real-time interaction between the vehicle and the road information is helpful to solve the problem of inaccurate recognition of the radar and camera in the case of severe weather in the autonomous driving, it will increase the difficulty and reduce the implementation cost of the automatic driving.

1.2 Tesla leads the competition

Tesla leads autonomous driving, and car companies continue to increase investment:

Tesla launched Autopilot 1.0 in October 2014, the first commercialization of the automatic driving system, and is currently moving towards L3. Different from the traditional distributed electronic and electrical architecture, Tesla adopts a centralized electronic and electrical architecture, which reduces the length of the wiring harness and can improve the processing capacity of big data; in addition, Tesla is the first in the world to apply the OTA upgrade system, and its autopilot function is transmitted through the wireless network. Carry out OTA continuous update and continuous performance optimization.

The traditional alliance of car companies has become a trend, including Volkswagen-Ford, Daimler-BMW, GM-Honda, etc., sharing technology and promoting commercialization. At present, the deployment rate of L2 autonomous driving systems has increased significantly, and L3 is beginning to penetrate. We believe that as car companies continue to increase investment and continue to make efforts, it is expected to accelerate the penetration of L3 and above automatic driving systems.

1.2.1 The commercial use of technology giants is one step ahead

Technology company 1: Waymo launched an unmanned taxi service, impacting commercial operations.

Waymo is the world's leading company in autonomous driving technology. Waymo is a subsidiary of Google. It develops the self-driving platform "Waymo Driver", which has been upgraded to the fifth generation. Sensors, electronic components, antennas, housings and firmware are all independently developed by Waymo, and the cost has been reduced by half. In terms of sensor technology, Waymo is mainly composed of lidar systems, vision systems, radar systems, and additional sensors.

Waymo's self-driving commercialization progress continues to break through. In July 2018, Waymo announced that its self-driving fleet had reached 8 million miles in road tests on public roads, realizing commercial operation and leading the industry. In October 2019, it even surpassed 10 million miles in road tests . In addition, before Volvo, Waymo has successively carried out in-depth cooperation with Fiat Chrysler, Jaguar Land Rover, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi and other car companies to gradually promote the deployment of Waymo Driver on various vehicle platforms. Waymo launched Waymo one, an unmanned taxi service, in December 2018, and launched an unmanned taxi without security guards in October 2019, gradually building a commercial territory for autonomous driving.

The field of autonomous driving has been repeatedly recognized by funds, and it will raise US$3 billion in 2020. On May 13, 2020, Waymo CEO John Krafcik announced that Waymo’s first round of financing of $2.25 billion officially announced on March 2 has received additional investment from new investors, bringing the cumulative financing amount of this round to $3 billion. Under the influence of the new crown epidemic, the financial support of the U.S. autonomous driving field fell into a trough in 2020. Waymo’s external financing is one of the few financing records for U.S. autonomous driving in 2020, which proves Waymo’s technical strength and inexhaustibility in the field of autonomous driving. The direction of humanized practice has been widely recognized by investors. The funds obtained from the financing will continue to seek business development and breakthroughs in Waymo's three main commercialization directions: Robo Taxi, Robo Truck, and Honeycomb.

Technology company 2: Baidu's Apollo open platform has joined 177 auto-related companies.

The versions of the Apollo open platform have changed, and the application scenarios and technologies have both improved. In 2019, Baidu Apollo announced that it would expand the open platform to three: the autonomous driving platform, the vehicle-road collaboration platform, and the intelligent vehicle-connected platform; Minibus 2.0 solution for BRT bus rapid transit, autonomous parking solution for the last mile, low-cost and low-speed mini-car solution, and key technologies such as autonomous driving cloud; the applicable scenarios of the Apollo vehicle-road collaboration open platform include intelligent networked automatic driving, Intelligent networked assisted driving, traffic guidance and signal control, operating vehicle supervision, travel services, smart parking, etc.

Gather automobile-related enterprises, reduce costs and increase scale. The Apollo open platform has gathered 36,000 autonomous driving developers from 97 countries around the world. The total amount of open source code exceeds 560,000 lines, which is 2.4 times that of 2018. It has been the world's largest autonomous driving developer community for two consecutive years. Up to now, Baidu Apollo's self-driving vehicles have been tested in more than 24 cities in China, with a total of more than 400 vehicles, and a total of 100,000 safe passenger trips have been achieved, with a cumulative road test mileage of more than 3 million kilometers. We believe that cooperating with car companies for pre-installed mass production will help Baidu reduce the cost of autonomous driving technology development, improve the consistency and stability of the system, and lay the foundation for increasing the scale of the intelligent field.

Electrification accelerates new energy vehicles are the best carrier

Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have a higher level of electrification, and the accelerated penetration of new energy vehicles has laid a better foundation for promoting the development of intelligent network technology. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the world has reached 2.3% from the beginning of 2010 to 2.3% in 2019, showing a trend of accelerating penetration, but it is still at a relatively low level and has a large room for growth. In 2020, China's new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be extended for two years as scheduled, and the intensity and pace of subsidies will slow down. Overseas, take Europe as an example. In 2020, carbon emission regulations will enter the fourth stage, and the superimposed new energy vehicle subsidies will increase. accelerate. Tesla, Volkswagen, BYD and other leading car companies have launched benchmark models on the market, leading the trend of electric vehicle technology.

Since 2014, China's new energy vehicle sales have maintained rapid growth, and the subsidy decline in 2019 has caused short-term pressure. From the perspective of annual data, China's new energy vehicle sales have opened a high-speed growth channel since 2014, and reached 1.206 million in 2019, a slight decline in sales for the first time, but the CAGR from 2014 to 2019 is still as high as 74.4%. Cumulative sales of energy vehicles were 486,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32.8%. Judging from the monthly data, the sales of new energy vehicles during the transitional period in 2019 still maintained a relatively rapid growth. After the transitional period, the subsidy retreat was relatively large, and the sales of new energy vehicles experienced a year-on-year decline for 12 consecutive months. In July 2020, the sales volume of China's new energy vehicles was 98,000, a year-on-year increase of +19.3%, which was the first time to resume positive year-on-year growth under a relatively low base in the same period.

2.1 Benchmark models and electric platforms lead market technology trends

2.1.1 Tesla: Model 3, a star model, leads technology trends

From high-end to mid-range, the technical level has always led the industry. From the high-end model Model S/X that defines the brand, to the mid-range model Model 3/Y that realizes sales and performance, Tesla has always insisted on the ultimate pursuit of electric vehicle product performance. The parameters are at the highest level of the same level, and the technical level leads the industry.

2.1.2 Volkswagen MEB: Comprehensive Transformation to Electrification Demonstrates the Determination of Overseas Leaders

Formulate the 2025 strategy and clarify the timetable for electrification. In June 2016, Volkswagen released the "TOGETHER Strategy 2025", proposing to launch 30 electric vehicles before 2025. By 2025, the sales of electric vehicles will reach 2-3 million, accounting for 20-25% of the total sales. It is planned to invest 30 billion euros in vehicle electrification before 2023, and by 2030, electric vehicles will account for more than 40% of the vehicles produced in Europe and China.

Create three new dedicated pure electric platforms to demonstrate the determination of electrification transformation. In terms of vehicle manufacturing, Volkswagen has created three new dedicated pure electric platforms, namely MEB, PPE and SPE. in:

1) MEB is a compact pure electric platform (shared by Volkswagen, Skoda, SEAT and Audi);

2) PPE is a medium and large pure electric platform (contributed by Porsche and Audi);

3) SPE is a high-performance pure electric platform (Porsche shares it with Audi and Lamborghini, and produces Audi e-tron GT/Porsche Taycan and other models).

The German factory started production, SAIC Volkswagen's first ID. rolled off the production line, and the era of electrification of the Volkswagen Group began. In November 2019, Volkswagen held a production launch ceremony for ID.3, the first model on the MEB platform, at the Zwickau plant. Due to the impact of the overseas epidemic, the delivery of the first batch of ID.3 orders was delayed until Q3 2020. In November 2019, SAIC Volkswagen's new energy plant, the world's first factory specially built for the MEB platform, was completed, and the first ID. rolled off the production line. The new plant will be officially put into operation in October 2020, with a planned annual production capacity of 300,000 units. The official delivery of ID.3 and the official commissioning of the Shanghai New Energy Plant marked the official start of the era of the Volkswagen Group's comprehensive electrification.

The vehicle production capacity layout is centered on the MEB platform, and 8 MEB factories will be built in 2022. The MEB platform is the core of Volkswagen's transformation to new energy vehicles. By 2029, Volkswagen plans to sell a total of 26 million pure electric vehicles, of which about 20 million pure electric vehicles will be produced on the MEB platform. In 2022, Volkswagen will build 8 MEB factories:

1) Americas: Volkswagen will invest 800 million US dollars (690 million euros) to build a factory in Chattanooga, USA, and the first electric car will be put into production in 2022;

2) Europe: The factory in Zwickau, Germany will start trial production at the end of 2019. The factories in Emden, Hanover, Dresden and Mlada Boleslav will also produce electric vehicles, and together with Zwickau will form the largest electric vehicle production alliance in Europe.

3) Asia-Pacific: SAIC Volkswagen's Anting plant and FAW-Volkswagen's Foshan plant will start producing MEB platform models from 2020.

The combination of outsourcing, equity investment and joint venture guarantees the supply of power batteries in multiple dimensions. At this stage, power batteries for the MEB platform are mainly purchased from outside, and Volkswagen has selected the main suppliers of power batteries for the MEB platform in Europe, the United States and China. In order to ensure a stable supply of power batteries, Volkswagen has also participated in and joint ventured a number of power battery companies, including Northvolt and Guoxuan.

2.1.3 BYD: e-platform + intelligence begins to show differentiated competitive advantages

The market share remains the first, and the leading position of new energy passenger vehicles is stable. BYD's leading position in the new energy passenger vehicle industry is stable. According to the output of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the past four years, BYD was briefly surpassed by BAIC New Energy in 2017 (affected by policy factors, BAIC New Energy's EC series A00 models were hot in 2017 ); the market share recovered to over 20% in 2018; the demand for new energy passenger vehicles used for operation after the transition period in 2019 shrank, and BYD's market share declined in the short term, but it still reached 18.4% in 2019, and the market share remained unchanged. Industry first.

The e-platform defines new standards for future automotive hardware, and technology leads intelligent development . The e-platform is the high-end incubator of BYD's pure electric vehicles. Based on the e-platform, a variety of Dynasty series EV models and e-series models have been introduced to the market, marking BYD's full stride towards a complete set of integrated solutions for pure electric vehicle components. . The flagship model "Han" is equipped with new intelligent technology. The car and machine adopts DiLink 3.0 intelligent network connection system, leading the human-computer interaction experience in the industry. Chair heating and ventilation etc.

The new product cycle is fully launched, the product layout is expanding to two poles, and the market share is expected to bottom out. In July 2020, BYD's flagship sedan "Han" was launched, and all performance indicators have reached the benchmark level of the same level. At present, orders in hand continue to rise, driving the sales of new energy vehicles and brand value. BYD entered the field of new energy passenger vehicles with the A-class sedan F3DM dual-mode electric vehicle. Since 2018, in order to meet the needs of more individual consumers, the company has strengthened the development of high-end models and cost-effective models, and the product layout is closer to personal consumption. market share is expected to bottom out. At present, three product sequences from high to low have been formed:

1) Tenshi brand: Integrate BYD Power Technology and Daimler's vehicle manufacturing experience to create high-end electric vehicle products with more texture and style;

2) Dynasty series: focusing on the experience of technology and extreme performance, aiming at the market of 100,000-400,000 yuan;

3) e-series: It is more youthful, intelligent and cost-effective, targeting the pure electric vehicle market of RMB 50,000 to RMB 150,000.

2.2 The best vehicle for intelligent vehicles is new energy vehicles

The development of intelligent network technology promotes the power increase of automotive electronic products. With the development of intelligent network technology, the use of various sensors such as laser radar, millimeter wave radar, and camera related to automatic driving/assisted driving functions in vehicles has increased. As the number of usage increases, the computing power of on-board chips (taking Nvidia’s self-driving chip system Xavier as an example, equipped with a custom 8-core CPU, 512-core Volta GPU, 2 deep learning accelerators, and the entire system includes 9 billion transistors) and communications equipment The complexity has increased significantly, and the power of automotive electronic products has also increased with the advancement of vehicle intelligence and informatization. Taking autonomous driving technology as an example, according to the statistics of the International Society of Automated Engineering, the power of the automatic driving system of the current high-level autonomous driving test vehicle is about 2.5kW; according to the research of BorgWarner, the power of the fully automatic driving system is 2-4kW Between, the energy consumption is comparable to 50-100 laptops.

Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have a higher level of electrification, and the development of intelligent network technology has a better foundation. The inherent characteristics of new energy vehicles driven by electricity determine that their electrification level is higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles. The power battery can directly supply power, the wiring harness and connectors can carry more power, and more automotive electronic devices can be arranged on the vehicle. Better adapt to the development trend of vehicle intelligence and information network. From the comparison of the interiors of the Porsche Taycan and Panamera, we can intuitively feel the advantages of electric vehicles in the layout of automotive electronic equipment. Large LCD screen, almost all physical buttons are canceled, and the control functions are integrated in the 8.4-inch touch screen below.

Control-by-wire technology is a necessary technology to realize high-level automatic driving, and electric vehicles are the best platform for the implementation of control-by-wire technology. In traditional chassis technology, when the driver depresses the brake pedal/accelerator pedal, turns the steering wheel or depresses the clutch pedal and toggles the gear shifter, the force is transmitted to the actuator through the mechanical connection device, (in With the assistance of hydraulic/pneumatic devices), the vehicle completes relevant actions; the difference of the wire-controlled chassis system is that when the driver makes the above related actions, each displacement sensor converts the force signal into an electrical signal, and then transmits it to the ECU to calculate the required force. Force, and then the actuator is driven by the motor to complete the relevant actions.

The control-by-wire chassis system cancels a large number of mechanical connection devices and hydraulic/pneumatic auxiliary devices. First, it helps to reduce the weight of the vehicle. Second, it reduces the energy loss during force transmission. Third, wearable parts reduce maintenance costs. reduce. In addition, the control-by-wire chassis system also has the characteristics of fast response and high control precision , which can meet the requirements of high-level automatic driving technology and improve safety. The new energy vehicle chassis designed and produced based on the new energy special platform has been redesigned to better adapt to the layout of the control-by-wire devices. At the same time, the higher electrification level can effectively support the normal operation of the control-by-wire chassis system.

The integrated development of electrification, informatization and intelligence will jointly promote the subversive progress of automotive technology . The trends of electrification, informatization and intelligence in automobile technology have their own unique connotations and are closely related to each other. Electric vehicles are the best carrier of intelligent network technology. At the same time, highly intelligent network-connected automobile products will achieve a greater degree of energy saving and emission reduction, so that the low-carbon technology of automobiles will play a greater role. The long-term development trend of new energy vehicles is to integrate with informatization and intelligence, and the three will jointly promote the subversive progress of automotive technology.

ADAS: Compulsory Standard Configuration + Cost Decrease Penetration Rate Accelerates Increase

ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance System), which is an advanced driver assistance system, uses sensors such as cameras, radars, lasers, and ultrasonics to instantly sense and collect surrounding environmental data during driving, identify, detect and track obstacles, and Combined with the map data of the navigator for systematic calculation and analysis, it is a safety technology that judges possible dangers for the driver in advance and performs braking control on the vehicle. ADAS is the fusion of various technologies including front collision avoidance warning FCW, adaptive cruise control ACC, automatic emergency braking AEB and so on.

At present, the industry is in the stage of moving from L2 assisted driving to L3 and above. As the cost of core components such as superimposed sensors and chips is mandated by the policy, the penetration rate of ADAS is expected to accelerate. It is expected that the market size will exceed 150 billion yuan in 2025. Among them, the new energy vehicle ADAS market is growing faster, and it is expected to reach 35 billion yuan in 2020 and exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025.

Ultrasonic radar has application scenarios in the field of L1 to L5 autonomous driving, has a high cost performance, and is easier to land in the Chinese market. It is estimated that the market size of China's vehicle-mounted ultrasonic radar will exceed 6 billion yuan in 2020.

The technical requirements of vehicle cameras are higher than those of mobile phones, and most of the upstream devices are monopolized by foreign leaders, and China is in its infancy. Different from the camera and interaction of mobile phones, the car camera is mainly to ensure driving safety, and it needs to keep working during the whole process of driving. This requires it to be able to adapt to harsh working environments such as vibration and high temperature for a long time, and has high durability and stability. . The core device CMOS of the car camera is mainly monopolized by American, Japanese and Korean companies, and On-Semi has a market share of more than 40% in the car image sensor market.

Chinese companies are gradually entering the relevant market from the field of camera module packaging. With the improvement of the maturity of the industrial chain, the price of vehicle cameras continues to decline. Sunny Optical, O-Film and other manufacturers with high market shares in the field of mobile phone camera packaging are entering the automotive market by virtue of their technology accumulation in the consumer electronics field. From 2010 to 2018, the average price of a car camera has dropped from more than 300 yuan to about 150 yuan, while the price of a general blind spot camera has been reduced to less than 100 yuan.

3.1.1 Judgment layer: car specification chip and computing platform

The car standard chip represented by AI chip and the computing platform built around it are the source of computing power of ADAS/AD. All judgments and decisions depend on the fusion of excellent algorithms and first-class hardware. Since 2015, AI chips have gradually become a trend that people pay attention to. Industry participants all hope to be able to make highly competitive chips.

Different from general consumer-grade applications, it is very difficult and long for the certification process of automotive-grade chips to be installed on the vehicle. When chips enter the vehicle field, they must have strong anti-interference ability and adapt to various complex working environments such as high temperature, humidity, vibration and electromagnetic radiation. Chips entering major car companies or Tier1 supply chains must go through a rigorous certification process, such as AEC-Q100 and ISO/TS16949 standards promoted by the North American auto industry.

3.1.2 Execution layer: brake-by-wire, steering, etc.

Executive control is the basis for the real implementation of autonomous driving. Perceptual positioning is like the driver's eyes, planning and decision-making is like the driver's brain, and executive control is like the driver's hands and feet. Moreover, planning decisions cannot be separated from execution control, and without understanding of execution control, decision-making will be impossible.

The core technology of the executive control mechanism is wire-controlled execution, which mainly includes wire-controlled brakes, steering and throttle:

Brake-by-wire is an important part of the automatic driving execution system. The functional modules of ADAS and braking system are highly related, including ESP/AP/ACC/AEB, etc. Since automatic driving requires a shorter braking response speed (300ms→120ms) at the execution level, and new energy vehicles have no engine to generate vacuum boost, improving energy recovery efficiency requires pedal decoupling. The ESC-based braking system can no longer meet the needs of new energy and self-driving cars, and the brake-by-wire system can solve these two problems. -Hydraulic Braking System).

3.2 ADAS Penetration Rate Accelerates, Scale Exceeds 100 Billion

ADAS market size will exceed 100 billion yuan . Driven by policy-mandated standard equipment and accelerated electrification, the ADAS penetration rate is expected to accelerate: 1) The adoption rate of ADAS functions on new energy vehicles is higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles. In 2018, new energy vehicles accounted for nearly 70% of China's ADAS market %, while traditional fuel vehicles only account for about 30%; 2) With the gradual maturity of technology and the continuous decline of cost, ADAS is penetrating from high-end to low-end market. It is estimated that the ADAS market size will reach 70 billion yuan in 2020 and exceed 150 billion yuan in 2025. Among them, the new energy vehicle ADAS market is growing faster, and it is expected to reach 35 billion yuan in 2020 and exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025.

High technical barriers determine high concentration, with Tier 1 giants and chip leaders occupying leading positions. ADAS execution tasks are composed of three links: perception, judgment, and execution. Bicycle intelligence mainly relies on sensor technology (radar and camera), chips, and algorithms. 1) Sensors: mainly monopolized by Aptiv, Bosch, Denso, Continental, Valeo, Veoneer, etc.; 2) Algorithms and chips: mainly monopolized by Mobileye, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Renesas, Infineon, etc.; 3) Brake by wire: Bosch, Continental, and Trina are dominant, while China Bethel and Lianchuang Electronics are catching up.

Internet of Vehicles V2X: Policy + 5G + technology giants enter the Internet of Vehicles to speed up

With the entry of policy + 5G + technology giants, the development of the Internet of Vehicles will be significantly accelerated. With the release of the official draft of the "Intelligent Vehicle Innovation and Development Strategy", the development of China's Internet of Vehicles has received steady and comprehensive policy guidance and support while maintaining high growth. More than 30 demonstration areas are carrying out large-scale experiments. In addition, under the background of full-scale commercial use of 5G, and driven by technology giants such as Huawei, Google, Baidu, and Tencent, who have accelerated their deployment of the Internet of Vehicles, Internet of Vehicles-related products are gradually landing. and other hardware as well as in-vehicle information services, communication services, cloud services and other software requirements form a huge incremental market.

4.1 The entry of technology giants to promote the development of the industry

4.1.1 Huawei: Highlights ICT Technology Advantages and Accelerates Entering Tier1

He has been deeply involved in the ICT field for 30 years, and entered the automotive industry across borders. Since the establishment of the company in 1987, Huawei has been focusing on the ICT (Information and Communication Technology) field, and has accumulated a large amount of technology in communications and cloud computing. Adhering to the scientific and technological development concept of "Internet of Everything", Huawei has long established a layout for the automotive industry. As early as 2013, Huawei launched the vehicle communication module ME909T for automobiles. In 2014, Huawei successively signed cooperation agreements with Dongfeng, Changan, and FAW to jointly develop from the vehicle network field. In 2015, Huawei successively received orders for communication modules from Audi and Mercedes-Benz.

The technology is excellent, and the early products have been recognized by the market. The ME909T in-vehicle communication module launched by Huawei in 2013 supports multiple standards including 4G, and has the ability to resist harsh environments, anti-unstable power supply capabilities, and has a wider operating temperature range and lower standby power consumption. The performance that should be possessed, its high compatibility, high integration, high quality and high stability have reached the car standard level. Huawei's early Internet of Vehicles products have been recognized by the market with its excellent technology, laying a brand foundation for Huawei's entry into the automotive industry in recent years.

A new business unit was established, and smart cars became a key strategy. On May 27, 2019, Ren Zhengfei issued Huawei's organizational change document, approving the establishment of a smart car solution BU, which is affiliated to the ICT Management Committee. On June 11, Huawei issued a document confirming the organizational structure of the smart car solution BU: Huawei's three main product lines are smart driving, smart cockpit and smart car cloud; in terms of department settings, it is divided into strategic business development department, policy and There are three front-end departments, the standard patent department and the marketing department, and three back-office departments, namely human resources, quality operations and financial management.

Cooperate with BU to reserve talents and focus on solution providers. Huawei's 2020 Ph.D. recruiting positions are distributed in: intelligent driving researcher, intelligent cockpit researcher, AI algorithm optimization/system platform researcher, smart car solution design and integration verification researcher, Internet of Vehicles big data researcher, according to the needs of the BU organizational structure Conducted talent pool. Looking at Huawei's smart car solution BU and recruitment positions, Huawei's current focus is on the supply of smart car solutions, and it will not become an independent car manufacturer in the short term.

Provide digital solutions and become an incremental component supplier. In the three major product lines of smart driving, smart cockpit, and smart car cloud, Huawei is committed to providing digital solutions for car companies through the company's technology accumulation in the ICT field. business).

Basic communication module: LTE-V2X or 5G-V2X vehicle communication module, T-Box, etc.
Mobile Data Center MDC: Through the three-layer combination of software layer, platform layer, and chip layer, Huawei provides a mobile computing platform MDC for self-driving cars. This platform has high performance, high security, high reliability, high energy efficiency, and deterministic low latency. The technical advantages of "three highs and one low" can meet the needs of L3~L5 autonomous driving. It has an ASIL D level safety design architecture, and realizes that the internal time duration of ROS is less than 1ms, the kernel scheduling delay is less than 10us, and the end-to-end delay is less than 200ms. .

Octopus, a cloud service for autonomous driving: Octopus is a one-stop development platform for autonomous driving, providing a full-process automation tool chain (data service, training service, and simulation service) for autonomous driving. Relying on the basic capabilities of big data AI and the Ascend 310 and 910 chips, Octopus can support PB-level data storage and billion-level data retrieval in seconds for road test vehicles, accelerating the iteration of autonomous driving algorithms from "months/weeks" to "days", greatly improving development Efficiency and saving a lot of labor costs help car companies and evaluation agencies to quickly develop autonomous driving products.
Automated driving network solution ADN: Huawei's autonomous driving network strategy (ADN) is a strategy for the next ten years following Huawei's all-cloud strategy All-Cloud. It aims to integrate SDN, NFV, cloud, big data, AI, A variety of intelligent technologies such as knowledge graphs, focusing on the impact of artificial intelligence technology on future network architecture, operation and maintenance models, and business models, using architectural innovation to solve TCO structural problems in telecommunications networks, and driving the intelligent upgrade of the telecommunications industry.

People-car-home full-scenario travel interconnection solution HiCar: Comparing with Baidu CarLife and Apple Carplay, and adding deep integration of mobile phones and vehicles, it is committed to making cars a third living space. At present, there are more than 30 ecological partners Automakers, including Audi, FAW, GAC, BAIC, Chery, JAC and other car companies have joined, and the cooperative models exceed 120 models. Related companies include Kingu, DEREN Electronics, Qiming Information, etc.

DC fast charging module HiCharger: Huawei released on April 23, 2020, the Chinese version is 30kW, and the overseas version is 20kW; the overseas version 20kW DC fast charging module has a maximum efficiency of 96.55%, and the Chinese version 30kW has a maximum efficiency of 96.4%; Using full glue filling and full isolation protection technology, combined with the temperature data collected by internal sensors and artificial intelligence algorithms, HiCharger can identify the blockage of the dust-proof net of the charging pile and the stalled state of the module fan, and remotely remind the operator to implement accurate and reliable predictive maintenance.

Multi-level and multi-dimensional cooperation, benchmarking Tier1 such as Bosch. Huawei has jointly established 5GAA with BMW, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Intel, Qualcomm and other companies; it has cooperated with China Mobile and E-Hualu in software; it has carried out ecological cooperation with major Chinese auto companies (GAC, SAIC, FAW, etc.). The multi-level and multi-dimensional layout will help Huawei occupy the commanding heights in intelligent connected vehicles, and it is expected to become a Tier1 supplier such as Bosch in the future.

With multiple efforts, Huawei's Internet of Vehicles layout is progressing rapidly. To sum up, Huawei's layout in the Internet of Vehicles business started early, developed rapidly, and has many categories. After seven years of development, Huawei has now developed mobile communication modules, cloud computing platforms, charging modules, and solutions for the interconnection of people, cars, and homes. Whether it is hardware or software, we have related products, and we have made more efforts The development trend of Huawei will help Huawei to enter the Tier more steadily.

4.1.2 Baidu: Developing Vehicle OS Systems

The Apollo plan continues to advance and has a self-developed roadside computing unit. As early as April 2017, Baidu released the Apollo plan, announcing the opening of the autonomous driving platform. After nearly three years of development, in July 2019, Apollo 5.0 has achieved mass production of self-driving vehicles in limited areas. In addition, Baidu already has a self-developed roadside computing unit to facilitate the development of vehicle-road coordination.

The commercialization of Xiaodu's car OS has achieved remarkable results. As of June 2019, there are more than 60 auto brands equipped with Baidu Vehicle Network functions, and more than 300 models have been launched. The total number of models that have reached cooperation intentions and will be launched in two years next year will reach more than 500. It is estimated that in 2020, the installed capacity of Baidu's in-vehicle operating system is expected to reach 1.2 million vehicles.

4.1.3 Ali: Focus on AI Solutions

Deeply cultivate the intelligent operating system and move towards the Internet of Everything. In November 2019, Alibaba established Banma Zhixing, an intelligent networked vehicle development platform based on AliOS. The Banma Network behind it was jointly established by Alibaba and SAIC. Under the empowerment of AliOS, Banma Zhixing started from intelligent voice assistant and AR navigation, and gradually added new functions such as face recognition, sensorless payment, and in-vehicle entertainment to build a comprehensive operating system ecosystem.

AI solutions have become a new stage of development. In April 2018, Alibaba's artificial intelligence laboratory reached strategic cooperation with Daimler, Audi, and Volvo to launch the Tmall Genie Auto AI+ program, and realize home-car interconnection through Tmall Genie (two-way control of home and car, double-terminal data synchronization) , People-vehicle interconnection (voice-visual interaction, facial expression imitation feedback), cloud-vehicle interconnection (massive audio and video, new retail of local life), enhance user experience.

4.1.4 Tencent: Car entertainment has become a unique advantage

The positioning of its own advantages is clear, and the All in Car system has been implemented. As early as 2017, Tencent and Guangzhou Automobile Group released the iSPACE concept car, which is committed to creating a comprehensive smart life experience for car owners. In 2019, Wutong Autolink, a subsidiary of Tencent, launched an operating system-level intelligent network connection system solution - TINNOVE OS. The system deeply integrates the basic capabilities and core ecological resources of Tencent Autolink, and can provide personalized service recommendations based on scenarios. The forward-looking version of TINNOVE OS has been the first to carry the subversive WeChat car version and Tencent's latest full-duplex voice technology. Tencent has unique advantages in games, music, information, film and television, etc., and its natural entertainment ecosystem will help Tencent quickly occupy the high ground of in-vehicle entertainment systems.

4.2 The Internet of Vehicles Speeds Up and the Scale Exceeds Trillions

The entry of 5G+ technology giants drives the development of the Internet of Vehicles to accelerate, and the market size is expected to exceed one trillion yuan under the trend of increasing software proportion. In the short term, the networking of traditional automobiles will directly drive a substantial increase in the demand for in-vehicle communication equipment, driving the expansion of the Internet of Vehicles market; Enrich software categories and create a service ecology. At that time, various in-vehicle content and services will become the main growth point, further promoting the expansion of the Internet of Vehicles. When the development of intelligent networked vehicles matures, the increment will shift from hardware to software. TSP (vehicle information service provider) becomes the core.

OBU/RSU: OBU (On Board Unit, on-board unit) and RSU (Road Side Unit, roadside unit) are the basis of V2V and V2X, and the potential market size is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan. At present, the industry is in a state of complete competition. Datang, Desai, Neusoft, Huawei, ZTE and other large and small companies are all developing their own communication units. Technology and customer quality will become the key to success.
Automotive electronics: foreign manufacturers occupy a dominant position, and domestic manufacturers actively follow up. Automotive chips: Nvidia, Intel, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, Infineon, Huawei, etc.; sensors: Bosch, Continental, Valeo, Denso, Velodyne, Desay SV, Huayu Automobile, etc.
T-BOX: In-vehicle communication module, domestic and foreign manufacturers compete with each other. Internationally, it is dominated by LG, Bosch, Continental, Valeo, etc. In China, it includes Intest, Huawei, and Flairco.
TSP: In-vehicle information service provider, car companies, car terminal manufacturers, and the Internet are all competing. Car manufacturers: GM, Onstar, Toyota G-Book, SAIC InkaNet; Car terminal manufacturers: Soling, NavInfo, 95 Smart Driving, PATEO, etc.; Internet giants: Apple, Google, Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and others.

Unmanned driving: commercial first RoboTaxi is advancing steadily

Unmanned driving commercialization is first implemented, and multiple scenarios such as freight, logistics, ports, and mines are blossoming, and the market scale exceeds one trillion yuan. Cost reduction + safety requirements + environmental protection advantages promote the commercialization of RoboTaxi, and the huge market space attracts domestic and foreign technology companies, car companies, travel service providers, etc. Tesla plans to build a robotaxi fleet of 1 million vehicles, which is expected to disrupt the industry. RoboTaxi planners have entered unmanned logistics one after another, choosing different segments to seize a larger market.

5.1 Trillion scale of unmanned driving commercial use

Unmanned driving business has blossomed in multiple places, with a scale exceeding one trillion yuan. The application of unmanned driving in fixed scenarios is easier to implement. At present, commercial unmanned driving operations mainly include: 1) public roads, mainly highways and other trunk lines for unmanned transportation of heavy trucks. In 2019, the number of heavy trucks in China exceeded 7.5 million. According to the average price of 300,000 yuan/vehicle, the market size exceeds 2 trillion yuan; 2) Restricted areas, including ports, mines, short-distance unmanned distribution, urban and park sanitation, etc., among which the scale of unmanned trucks in Chinese ports is estimated to be nearly 300 billion yuan, and the market size (front-loading + rear-loading) of unmanned trucks in mines exceeds 500 billion yuan.

Commercial Scenario 1 - Unmanned Freight Trucks: The market space is vast, and giants are deploying one after another. The rapid growth of demand for cargo transportation and the shortage of drivers determine the huge market development prospects of unmanned trucks. Daimler, BMW, Volvo, GM, Tesla, Waymo and other giants have accelerated their deployment in recent years. For example, Daimler has acquired Torc Robotics, an American autonomous driving start-up, to develop autonomous driving technology and apply it to trucks. Volvo released a cockpit-free Tesla's electric truck Vera can be used in ports, factory areas and logistics giant centers, etc. Tesla released the first pure electric truck Semi and so on.

Commercial Scenario 2 - Unmanned Mine Vehicle: It is widely used overseas, and it has also been commercially used in China. Unmanned mining vehicles are conducive to improving production efficiency and reducing safety accidents in mining areas. Caterpillar of the United States and Komatsu of Japan were officially put into commercial operation in 2011 and 2008 respectively. Mining giants such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and FMG have successively invested Use unmanned mine vehicles, of which Rio Tinto is operating more than 80 vehicles, and FMG has more than 130 vehicles. Unmanned mining vehicles such as China Xugong Group, NORINCO, Sinotruk, and Shaanxi Tongli Heavy Industry began commercial use in 2019, and technology solution providers such as Huituo Infinity, Tage Zhixing, and Yikong Zhijia have successively obtained financing. It is expected that the Chinese market will Expected to usher in rapid growth.

5.2 RoboTaxi Accelerates the Rivalry

RoboTaxi (self-driving taxi) is a taxi service that uses autonomous driving technology to replace human drivers for driving.

Global: Waymo leads, Tesla wants to enter. In 2009, the Google X laboratory established a self-driving car project. After 7 years of research and development, at the end of 2018, Waymo officially launched the Waymo One application for self-driving online car-hailing. Then BMW, Volkswagen, GM, Ford and other car companies joined forces with Intel, Nvidia, Google, Lyft, etc. have entered the market one after another. In 2019, Tesla stated that it will launch 1 million Robotaxi in 2020.

China: Baidu's layout is the earliest, followed by start-ups. In 2013, Baidu launched the unmanned vehicle project. In 2019, the self-driving taxi team Apollo Robotaxi began to operate in Changsha. Didi, WeRide, Pony.ai, AutoX and others entered the market later.

Gradually expand the scope of operation of RoboTaxi overseas. Arizona was the first state to allow the opening of Robotaxi manned transportation, and Waymo began to open this service to early users for free in 2018. In California, self-driving vehicles will be allowed to carry passengers after obtaining a deployment permit from the California DMV (Department of Motor Vehicle) and a passenger transportation permit issued by the CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission), but they cannot charge fees. Waymo, Cruise, Pony.ai, AutoX and other autonomous driving companies have obtained relevant licenses. At the same time, the scope of operation is expanding. Waymo's RoboTaxi has expanded from Phoenix to South Bay, California, serving more than 100,000 passengers.

Autonomous driving road tests have been opened in many places in China. Since 2019, six domestic cities including Guangzhou, Changsha, Shanghai, Wuhan, Cangzhou, and Beijing have opened road tests for autonomous driving. Baidu, WeRide, Pony.ai, AutoX, and Didi have successively launched RoboTaxi 2020 is expected to be the first year of scale for domestic Robotaxi.

The joint layout of autonomous driving technology companies, travel service platforms, and car companies has become a trend:

Pre-installed model development - autonomous driving technology companies + car companies: Waymo, Baidu, Pony.ai, etc. have begun to cooperate with car companies to develop L4 models. Through forward design, sensors and controllers are assembled in advance. Pipeline calibration. Complete a number of vehicle tests during the production process to improve vehicle safety performance and ensure vehicle production efficiency.
Commercial operation—autonomous driving technology enterprise + travel service platform: Robotaxi has three business operation models, including: 1) Establishing a joint venture company to be responsible for operations, such as WeRide and Guangzhou Baiyun Taxi Group; 2) Cooperating with travel service companies, such as AutoX and Shenzhen Pengcheng Electric Taxi Company, etc.; 3) Self-driving companies operate independently, such as Pony.ai.

Cost reduction is a key driver for Robotaxi to scale. Restricted by policy requirements, Robotaxi still needs to be equipped with safety officers, and they are mainly modified models. According to estimates, the cost per kilometer of Robotaxi equipped with safety officers + modified cars is still significantly higher than that of traditional vehicles. However, with the continuous improvement of technology in the future, With the rapid development, the hardware cost of the automatic driving system is expected to drop rapidly, and the pre-installed mass-produced vehicles will become a trend, and the safety officer will be removed, and the economy of Robotaxi will be particularly obvious at that time.

Waymo leads the intelligent bicycle route:

Join hands with Volvo to start mass production. In 2018, Waymo successively purchased 20,000 high-end electric SUV I-Pace and no more than 62,000 Chrysler Pacifica hybrid models from Jaguar Land Rover and FCA, and modified and integrated them. In June 2020, Waymo and Volvo reached a global strategic cooperation, aiming to carry Waymo Driver technology on a brand-new pure electric vehicle platform dedicated to travel, thereby creating application scenarios and business models including online car-hailing services, and opening up pre-installation The road to mass production.

Huge fleets of self-driving vehicles have amassed vast amounts of data. As of June 2020, Waymo's self-driving system has accumulated 20 million miles of testing in 25 cities across the United States. In addition, it has accumulated more than 15 billion miles of virtual simulation testing.

Baidu leads the route of vehicle-road coordination:

Baidu RoboTaxi is the world's first pre-installation mass production + L4 commercial application. In September 2019, the mass-produced L4 self-driving taxi Robotaxi fleet jointly launched by Baidu and FAW-Hongqi officially opened for trial operation in Changsha. Ordinary citizens can log on to Apollo’s official website to apply for seed users and make an appointment for a trial ride experience. In April 2020, Baidu Apollo Robotaxi service was launched on Baidu Maps and Baidu APP Smart Mini Program, becoming the first self-driving taxi service open to the public through a national-level application in China.

Baidu created a cooperation model of "car company-government-technology company" in Changsha. Changsha led the construction of the intelligent network demonstration zone. FAW Hongqi provided the Robotaxi pre-installed mass production production line, and Baidu Apollo provided the software and hardware systems for autonomous driving and vehicle-road coordination.

Baidu Apollo's self-driving vehicles have been tested in more than 24 cities in China, with a total of more than 400 vehicles, accumulatively achieving 100,000 safe passenger trips, and a cumulative road test mileage of more than 3 million kilometers.

Tesla poised to disrupt the industry:

In 2019, Tesla said it would launch 1 million Robotaxi vehicles in 2020, and the plan is still in progress, pending regulatory approval. Tesla plans to launch Tesla Network, a robotaxi service software. Tesla owners can let idle vehicles join the Tesla Network fleet, and provide online car-hailing services to earn income.

Tesla Robotaxi is expected to generate a gross profit of $30,000 per year. According to Tesla's calculations, if the operating cost is $0.18/mile (compared to Uber and Lyft's $1-2/mile), the service price is $1/mile, assuming that each car travels 90,000 miles per year, corresponding to approximately Generates a gross profit of approximately $30,000. In addition, it is estimated that the manufacturing cost of the next-generation Robotaxi is expected to drop to 25,000 US dollars, and it is possible to provide services in a way of renting and selling.

Underlying technology: software and hardware synergy drives the development of intelligent networking

The evolution of the underlying technology is the endogenous driving force driving the transition of the automobile industry from internal combustion engine drive to electric drive. From traditional fuel vehicles to gasoline-electric hybrids, from plug-in hybrids to pure electric drives, policy orientation and market demand are important as external drivers, but the evolution of the underlying technology is actually profoundly affecting the process of this industrial transformation. The core competence of car companies needs to shift from manufacturing to creation, and the R&D focus needs to shift from machinery plus hardware to software plus hardware. The project management concept should not only meet the needs of safety and robustness, but also adapt to the agile and rapid iterative update of software development.

6.1 Software-defined car layout cooperation becomes mainstream

6.1.1 Competitiveness changes from hard to soft, car companies focus on software layout

Software-defined cars have become a consensus. The automobile group represented by Volkswagen will focus on and tighten the authority of software development, and the proportion of self-developed software code will increase to 60%, and the software development department will become the main research and development team with more than 10,000 people. It is a foreseeable trend that software research and development work will become the primary focus of car companies' attention and energy investment.

Car companies need to adjust and redefine their core competitiveness, objectively evaluate R&D capabilities and resource status, and concentrate limited R&D resources to places that are more relevant to user experience. The surge in car codes and calculations reflects the change in consumer demand for car functions. The core value of cars has transitioned from a single travel tool to the third space of life. It has strong personal attributes, and its sense of value has also begun to be built around this core. .

Software capability is the ability to connect to end customers, the basis for continuously providing iterative application upgrades, and a channel for collecting data resources. In the future, hardware will become more and more standardized, while software will become the breakthrough point of differentiation. Foreign car companies have fully realized the importance of software capabilities, and have made frequent decisions to make actual team building actions in the past two years.

There are three ways to build a software team in a car company: 1) Establish a software-related subsidiary; 2) Joint venture with a software-backed company; 3) Establish a new software-related department internally.

Toyota is a representative company that has established a software-related subsidiary. At the end of July this year, the software company Woven Planet Holdings was formally established. The new company consists of two companies: Woven Core and Woven Alpha, of which Woven Core will focus on autonomous driving. Woven Alpha will create new businesses and incubate innovative projects in the fields of Internet, in-vehicle software and high-definition maps.

SAIC Passenger Vehicle named its software center "Zero Beam" in July this year; Changan established a software technology company by integrating software developers in cockpit, car control, cloud, and driving at the end of 2019; Geely Group Strategic investment and independent operation of Yikatong Technology, focusing on the two major areas of cockpit intelligence and vehicle intelligence.

A joint venture between car companies and professional companies with a software background is also an effective path. BMW is actively transforming into a mobility technology company. In order to take an important step in the expansion of the global innovation network in the field of IT and software development, it chose to form Critical TechWorks with CRITICAL Software.

Companies represented by Volkswagen have chosen to set up a higher-level and larger-scale independent software department internally.

6.1.2 Decoupling of software and hardware development Changes in competition and cooperation strategies among enterprises

The development cycle of traditional automobiles is too long, and the problems of high R&D costs for model changes or iterative upgrades need to be changed urgently. Traditional automobiles adopt a distributed electronic and electrical architecture. The number of ECUs increases with the complexity of vehicle functions. Different ECUs are relatively independent, and they only communicate with each other through CAN or LIN buses. The software and hardware of these controllers are highly coupled. Whenever new hardware needs to be replaced, the ECU software needs to be rewritten and modified on a large scale, and a large number of test certifications are required.

The automotive open system architecture AUTOSAR provides an intermediate layer between the software and hardware of the car, similar to that between the computer operating system and the application program, trying to decouple the software and hardware. In the AUTOSAR architecture, the system software is layered from top to bottom: application layer, runtime environment, basic software layer and microcontroller layer. Each layer only calls the interface of the next layer and provides an interface for the upper layer. .

Take the lead, improve the efficiency of application development, allow continuous iteration and upgrade of the whole vehicle, improve performance and user experience, Tesla's solution may be adopted by more powerful car companies. Tesla uses the CCM central computing module to integrate the 4G module, ADAS domain controller and the computing unit of the smart cockpit on a motherboard to form the "central computing platform" of the car. Tesla has formed a real-time operating system based on Linux on the basis of the central computing platform, which is a step further than AUTOSAR.

The decoupling of software and hardware in the development process will be an inevitable trend in the development of intelligent connected vehicles. Whether it is the evolution iteration of AUTOSAR or Tesla's one-step completion, in the era of intelligent network connection, it is foreseeable that the traditional development model with a new model project cycle of 2 to 3 years will undergo major changes due to the decoupling of software and hardware. .

Under the overall development trend of intelligent network connection, car companies will choose to cooperate more, and achieve complementary advantages based on their own existing resources. Trends such as software-defined cars, hardware standardization, and decoupling of software and hardware development will work together to affect and change the competition and cooperation strategies of auto companies. Car companies will begin to examine their own strengths and weaknesses more strictly, integrate their own advantageous resources, and look for partners in the market that can complement each other.

6.2 Evolution and upgrade of electronic and electrical architecture from distributed to centralized

6.2.1 Electronic and electrical architecture characterized by cross-domain integration

The distributed electronic and electrical architecture can no longer meet the needs of the development of smart cars. At present, a passenger car can have as many as 70-80 ECUs, and the total code volume of all ECUs is estimated to have reached about 100 million lines, which is far more complex than the Android mobile phone system. Different ECUs come from different suppliers and have different embedded software and underlying codes. This distributed architecture has caused considerable redundancy at the vehicle level. The software update of traditional vehicles is almost synchronized with the vehicle life cycle, which greatly affects the user experience.

Evolution towards a cross-domain centralized E&E architecture characterized by centralization and domain convergence. The distributed electronic and electrical architecture scheme characterized by modularization and integration is no longer advantageous, and it needs to develop towards a cross-domain centralized electronic and electrical architecture characterized by centralization and domain integration. The concept of "domain" was born from this .

The cross-domain centralized electronic and electrical architecture better supports the continuous innovation and update of software. The structural limitations of distributed electronic and electrical architecture modularization and closure can be tolerated in autonomous driving applications below L2, but under the requirements of L4 autonomous driving or ASIL-D functional safety, this limitation will be magnified and become a positive Barriers to functional development. The cross-domain centralized electronic and electrical architecture provides the computing power and communication capabilities required by future cars through domain controllers and Ethernet, centralizes vehicle-level software in domain controllers, and standardizes highly embedded controllers to better support deformation Management and cross-domain functionality.

The centralized automotive electronic and electrical architecture will be divided into three layers: 1) The top layer is the cloud computing service platform; 2) The middle layer is the vehicle computing control platform (ie domain controller); 3) The lower layer is the standardized actuator and sensor control of mechatronics device.

Generally, automotive electronic and electrical systems are divided into five functional domains, namely powertrain domain, chassis domain, body domain, infotainment domain (smart cockpit domain), and auxiliary/automatic driving domain. Therefore, the calculation and control of the middle layer include the master control of the five domains, Ethernet communication, and wireless communication, a total of seven elements.

The implementation of the centralized solution is constrained by the cost of implementation. The architectural concept of the "domain" centralized solution is perfect, but it has not been widely used in low-end and mid-range models in recent years, and the cost of solution implementation is the primary contradiction.

In Model 3, Tesla divides domains according to the principle of physical space proximity, which has a cost advantage. Tesla Model 3 redefines the "domain". In the new concept, there are no longer traditional body domains, power domains, etc., but are replaced by "Zones" in physical space, such as the middle domain, left domain and right domain. The new domain may realize the "domain zone" based on the location distribution, and through the interaction and fusion between different domains, the problem of wiring harness cost is perfectly resolved.

6.2.2 Tesla leads the hardware architecture upgrade strategy of car companies

Tesla adopts a vertical integration strategy and directly adopts the centralized electronic and electrical architecture of vehicles from 0 to 1, leading the evolution trend of automotive electronic and electrical architecture. Model 3 is mainly composed of three major control modules, one is the autopilot & infotainment control module similar to the central control module, and the other two are the right body controller BCM RH and the left body controller BCM LH.

The Volkswagen Group has listed the integrated EEA as a strategic focus for future group development, increased investment in software research and development planning, and established Car.Software to develop a unique VW.OS operating system.

Successful cooperation and learning from others' strengths are important driving forces for Audi to successfully realize the mass production of L3 autonomous vehicles. In 2017, Audi's central driver assistance control unit (zFAS) made its debut in its first mass-produced L3 self-driving car, the Audi A8. It is the result of the cooperation and development of many companies in China, integrating the most advanced technologies in various fields.

GM launched the Cadillac cloud electronic and electrical architecture, which has improved computing power and security performance, and can realize vehicle cloud update (FOTA), bringing a new generation of mobile Internet experience. The Cadillac cloud electronic architecture has significantly improved performance and operating efficiency, and has become a powerful technology center for connecting, driving and controlling almost all functions of the vehicle. With unlimited expansion potential, it has laid a solid foundation for highly integrated and large-scale software innovation development and application. technical basis.

BMW's new E/E architecture adopts an integrated architecture, which can realize system-level optimization, and will gradually move closer to the cloud architecture in the future . The new E/E architecture realizes the multi-layer classification of central computing platform, integrated ECU, and commodity ECU, and different types of functions are responsible for different levels of controllers. In the future, the E/E architecture in the car will gradually move closer to the cloud architecture, and massive data will be transmitted to the cloud for analysis and processing.

6.3 Automotive chips and computing platforms drive the development of intelligent networking

6.3.1 Tesla FSD: From outsourcing to self-developed

Tesla's exploration leads the industry, from the initial outsourcing of chips to self-developed FSD, it is self-contained and leads the development of the industry. Its self-developed FSD dedicated chip simplifies unnecessary software and hardware modules, greatly reduces the workload of R&D and design, and shortens the R&D cycle. However, its ecology is relatively closed, and it does not have inherent advantages in establishing a relatively complete ecological system.

Tesla's first-generation Autopilot 1.0 system: Autopilot 1.0 was released in 2014. The vision chip uses Mobileye EyeQ3, and the data fusion chip uses Nvidia Tegra 3. Equipped with 1 front camera, 1 rear reversing camera, 1 front radar and 12 ultrasonic sensors.

Tesla's second-generation Autopilot 2.0 system: camera-based, radar-assisted, hardware solution using NVIDIA's 1 Tegra Parker chip and 1 Pascal architecture chip solution; supports 8 cameras, 12 ultrasonic radars and 1 front equipped with millimeter wave radar. The overall performance is nearly 40 times higher than that of the previous generation solution.

Tesla Autopilot 3.0 system: At the Autonomy Day held in early 2019, Tesla launched the Autopilot 3.0 system solution equipped with a self-developed 14nm process FSD chip. From March, the 3.0 system was officially installed on the mass-produced Model X/S, and in early April, the 3.0 system was officially installed on the mass-produced Model 3. Tesla's self-developed generation 3.0 system uses a redundant design of two FSD chips to meet the system's functional safety requirements, achieving a total computing power of 144TOPS and a power consumption performance of 72W.

Tesla Autopilot 4.0 is expected to arrive around early 2022, when it will compete with Nvidia Drive AGX Orin and Mobileye EyeQ5. Its features include:

1) The chip will be manufactured using TSMC's 7nm process , jointly developed by IC design leader Broadcom and Tesla, and is the first chip product in the industry to adopt the chip leader TSMC's SoW packaging technology, which can integrate HPC chips without the need for substrates and PCBs. Directly integrated with thermal module in a single package.

2) The iterative improvement of the deep learning algorithm is significant, and Tesla will put an absolute priority on the research and development of unsupervised learning technology. The project, code-named Dojo, plans to input a large amount of data to a super-powerful training computer, conduct unsupervised large-scale training, and finally complete efficient algorithm improvement.

6.3.2 Mobileye Prioritizes Development to Support ADAS

Mobileye was founded in 1999 by Professors Amnon Shashua and Ziv Aviram of the Hebrew University in Israel. Mass-produced vehicles equipped with Mobileye products have been on the market since 2007. Listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2014, the market value is 8 billion US dollars. In 2017, the chip giant Intel acquired for US$15.3 billion and transferred its original autonomous driving division to Mobileye. Mobileye is committed to the development of vision-based autonomous driving and ADAS. EyeQ series chips provide support for passive safety functions such as front collision warning, automatic emergency braking and lane departure correction for L0-L2 cars. Currently, they have been deployed in 25 car companies around the world. used in millions of vehicles.

From 2014 to 2019, the annual shipments of EyeQ series chips continued to grow rapidly from 2.7 million to 17.4 million, with a CAGR of 46%. Mobileye's revenue continued to grow rapidly from US$144 million to US$879 million, with a CAGR of 43.7%. In addition, in recent years, Mobileye has accelerated its entry into the Chinese market, and its business in China has doubled every year.

Mobileye's unique EyeQ visual recognition chip is used in many car manufacturers. In response to the requirements of autonomous driving from L1-L5, Mobileye's visual recognition chips have developed from the first-generation EyeQ1 to EyeQ5, and EyeQ3 chips have been sold to almost all car manufacturers. The EyeQ family of chips combines features that support complex and intensive visual processing with low power consumption.

The computing power of EyeQ1 is about 0.0044Tops, the computing power of EyeQ2 is about 0.026Tops, and the power consumption is 2.5w, both of which only provide L1 assisted driving function. The computing power of the EyeQ3 chip is about 0.256Tops/power consumption 2.5w, which can support the computing needs of L2 advanced assisted driving.

The EyeQ4 chip has a computing power of about 2.5Tops/power consumption of 3W, which can realize L3 semi-automatic driving and start to realize partial integration. Using 28nm technology, the ADAS visual recognition chip is based on a multi-core architecture, equipped with 5 core processors (4 MIPSi-class cores and 1 MIPSm-class core), 6 VMP chips, 2 MPC cores and 2 PMAs The core can process the image data generated by 8 cameras at the same time.

The floating-point computing capability of a single EyeQ5 chip is 12Tops/power consumption 5W. In 2016, jointly announced the development of the EyeQ5 chip with STMicroelectronics STM. Equipped with 8 multi-threaded CPU cores and 18 Mobileye next-generation visual processors.

Mobileye focuses on the market below L3, providing an integrated solution of chip + algorithm binding. In the Chinese market, its advantages and disadvantages are more obvious.

Advantages: 1) Rich project experience and achievements, has cooperated with many car manufacturers, excellent performance and rich experience in the industry. 2) Rich customer resources, experience and good reputation in cooperation with major suppliers at home and abroad.

Disadvantages: 1) The increase in computing power is lower than that of competitors in the industry, and its chip computing power is lower than the computing power specified by the industry for autonomous driving. 2) Its closed chip model restricts user innovation. Once a large number of manufacturers join in, the demand for increasingly diversified algorithm customization will surge, and the bundled sales will be cumbersome.

6.3.3 Nvidia Focuses on L3 and Above Advanced Autonomous Driving

With the continuous development of deep learning and big data, GPU deep learning has ignited the next era of modern AI computing, and NVIDIA is increasingly known as the "AI computing company". The computing properties of GPUs serve as the brains of computers, robots and self-driving cars that perceive and understand the world. In the GPU chip market, NVIDIA's AI chips account for as much as 70% of the global market. GPU is gradually extended to visual processing, data center, intelligent driving and other fields, creating a complete AI ecosystem and leading the development of the AI era. NVIDIA is relying on the strength of its own computing platform to vigorously develop the smart car business.

NVIDIA has launched substantive cooperation with many Chinese and foreign car companies. Global car companies such as Toyota, Volkswagen, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, etc. Chinese partners such as FAW Group, Chery, Xiaopeng Motors, etc., their Xavier and Pegasus computing platforms have become the first choice for cooperative customers to realize L3 and L4 autonomous driving respectively.

NVIDIA cooperates with major first-tier suppliers to jointly lower the threshold of the autonomous driving industry. NVIDIA does not manufacture self-driving cars, but based on the underlying AI chip and high openness, it works with global partners to develop an autonomous driving ecosystem. So far, NVIDIA has cooperated with Bosch, Continental, Desay SV, ZF, etc. Strive to create the necessary chip hardware architecture and software support to lead the development of autonomous vehicles and the transportation industry.

NVIDIA provides differentiated platform customization for different OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers. Since NVIDIA released the Tegra K1 mobile processor in 2014 to officially enter intelligent driving, the DRIVE series of end-to-end autonomous driving platforms have been launched successively, and the energy efficiency ratio has been optimized generation by generation. From the first DRIVE PX that can support L2/L3 autonomous driving platform, to the current DRIVE series products can already support L2-L5 autonomous driving.

In 2016, NVIDIA released the DRIVE PX2 end-to-end autonomous driving platform, which was installed on the Tesla Model S/X produced from 2016 to 2019. DRIVE PX2 is an open artificial intelligence vehicle computing platform. For car manufacturers and first-tier suppliers, it is possible to conduct rapid and independent customized self-driving vehicle research and development based on this platform.

In 2020, the first Xiaopeng Motors P7 using Xavier will be mass-produced and launched. Xavier is a terminal computing platform mounted on a car. It is mainly responsible for sensing the surrounding environment through sensor data, using high-precision maps for real-time positioning, and making driving decisions based on algorithm models.

NVIDIA Orin system-on-a-chip powers L5 autonomous driving. In December 2019, NVIDIA released Orin, a new autonomous driving system-on-a-chip with 200TOPS deep learning computing power expected to be mass-produced in 2022. It is 7 times the performance of the previous generation of autonomous driving platform Xavier, and the power consumption is expected to be 65-70W.

NVIDIA focuses on the market above L3. It has powerful GPU graphics processing and AI chip field. It provides chip and algorithm solution services to the outside world. The open source platform provides flexible choices for major partners. Its products have the advantages of high computing power and support for the fusion of multiple types of sensors such as radar and cameras, and have become a powerful basic hardware supplier in the field of autonomous driving.

6.3.4 Horizon: The advantages of domestic independent leaders are gradually emerging

Horizon is a domestic independent emerging company in the field of autonomous driving. It started from visual processing and developed to multi-sensor fusion. In 2017, Horizon launched two embedded artificial intelligence vision chips, respectively for ADAS intelligent driving (Journey1.0 processor) and smart camera (Sunrise1.0 processor), with powerful AI chips and algorithm capabilities, successfully harvested Many Chinese and foreign auto market partners, such as Audi, Bosch, SAIC, GAC, FAW, Changan, BYD and other Chinese and foreign manufacturers.

Changan’s compact crossover SUV model UNI-T will adopt the intelligent cockpit NPU (Neural Processing Unit, Neural Network Processing Unit) computing platform jointly developed by Changan Automobile and Horizon, with a built-in second-generation Journey processor, China’s first car-level horizon journey , with 4TOPS/2W computing power, supports L3 automatic driving.

Compared with Mobileye, Horizon provides an open product solution, which is more attractive to local automakers. The computing power and power consumption of the second generation of Journey has surpassed EyeQ4, and the self-developed architecture and processor have shown excellent computing power and energy consumption performance.

Summary and Investment Advice

From a global perspective, major countries such as Europe, America, Japan, and China are introducing laws and regulations to accelerate the development of smart cars. Among them, China's policy sets the tone for the coordination of intelligence and networking. Traditional car companies such as Tesla and Volkswagen adopt gradual development, while technology companies represented by Waymo and Baidu are in place in one step, taking the lead in RoboTaxi and unmanned logistics, and entering the commercialization of unmanned driving above L4. New energy vehicles are the best carrier for intelligent networking. The global penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased from 2.3% in 2019 to 2.3% in 2019, showing a trend of accelerated penetration, but it is still at a low level and has a large room for growth. Accelerated electrification + policy promotion + increasingly mature industrial chain has driven the accelerated development of intelligent networked vehicles. Among them, the scale of ADAS is nearly 100 billion yuan, and the market scale of Internet of Vehicles and driverless vehicles exceeds one trillion yuan.

Under the background that software-defined automobiles have become a consensus, the vehicle's core competitiveness expression carrier is gradually shifting from hardware + machinery to software + hardware, software development and iteration capabilities, software and hardware architecture definition and forward-looking, and its own customer capabilities The level of infrastructure and resources should become the focus of car companies. In the various subdivisions of the intelligent network industry chain, we believe that the smart cockpit and ADAS will be the first to land in the short and medium term. We are optimistic about high-level autonomous driving, V2X Internet of Vehicles, services and applications around travel, and new business models that may be born based on them.

Vehicles: With the development of intelligent networking, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will rise to a new level, and the participation of more car companies will also significantly intensify competition. Overseas giants, joint venture car companies, China's own brands and new car-making forces compete together, and the leading position of new energy intelligent connected cars will gradually be established. At the current point of time, it is recommended to focus on the car companies that have launched or are expected to launch new energy smart connected explosive models, and the investment opportunities in their industrial chains.

Related targets:

1. Vehicle

a) Overseas: Tesla, Volkswagen, etc.;

b) China: BYD, Changan Automobile, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor, SAIC Motor, Weilai Automobile, Xiaopeng Automobile, Ideal, etc.;

2. Industry chain of explosive cars

a) Tesla industry chain: Xusheng, Tuopu Group, Sanhua Zhikong, etc.;

b) Volkswagen MEB industry chain: Huayu Automobile, Precision Forging Technology, etc.;

Intelligent driving: The field of ADAS system integration products is mainly controlled by the monopoly of international auto parts giants. It uses sensors such as cameras, radars, lasers, and ultrasonics to instantly sense and collect surrounding environmental data during driving to identify and detect obstacles. And tracking, combined with navigator map data for systematic calculation and analysis, pre-judging possible dangers for the driver, and a safety technology for braking control of the vehicle. Its huge market potential has attracted Internet technology companies and start-up companies to enter the market one after another. Local start-up technology companies may rely on the advantages of technological breakthroughs and localized services to have opportunities for domestic substitution in radars, cameras and chips. High-level autonomous driving, that is, unmanned driving, is mainly led by technology giants such as Google Waymo and Baidu Apollo, starting from RoboTaxi or specific scenario logistics, with huge development potential.

Related subject

1. Perceptual layer

a) Vehicle vision: OFILM, Neusoft Group, Helitai, United Optoelectronics, Lianchuang Electronics, Jingfang Technology, Sunny Optical;

b) Millimeter wave radar: Huayu Automobile, Baolong Technology, Desay SV, Asia Pacific;

c) LiDAR: Yestar Technology, Wanji Technology, Hi-Target, Han’s Laser, Yongxin Optics;

2. Decision-making level

a) ADAS algorithm/integration: Baoqianli, OFILM, Zongmu Technology;

3. Execution layer

a) Intelligent drive: Keboda, Dayang Motor, Wolong Electric Drive, Tongda Power, Inbrel;

b) Smart Steering: Huayu Automobile, Dell, Beite Technology;

c) Intelligent braking: Bethel, Tuopu Group, Huayu Automobile, Asia Pacific, Vie Technology;

V2X Internet of Vehicles: The development of Internet of Vehicles will develop in the direction of enriching software categories and creating a service ecosystem. At that time, various in-vehicle content and services will become the main growth point, further promoting the expansion of Internet of Vehicles. At the mature stage of the development of intelligent networked vehicles, the increment will shift from hardware to software, and TSP (vehicle information service provider) will become the core.

Related subject

1. High-precision map: NavInfo;

2. CAN bus in the car: Weidi;

3. V2X chips: Datang Telecom, Quanzhi Technology, Wingtech Technology;

4. TSP platform: Asia Pacific, Qianfang Technology, Joyson Electronics, Soling, Xingmin Zhitong, Hongli Zhihui;

Smart cockpit: The main driving force for the rapid development of the automotive industry has gradually shifted from being driven by products and technologies on the supply side in the past to being driven by increasing customer demand. Consumers' cognition of cars has gradually changed from "single means of transportation" to "third space", and the cockpit is the core carrier to realize space shaping. At the same time, advances in 5G, AI/big data, human-computer interaction, automotive chips and operating system technologies will promote the future development of smart cockpits and even lead to changes. Major car companies, Tier 1 and some players from different industries are all focusing on the field of smart cockpit, and want to advance the layout and occupy the dominant territory in the smart cockpit ecosystem. It is generally believed that the smart cockpit will go through four stages of development: 1) Electronic cockpit. Electronic information systems are gradually integrated to form an "electronic cockpit domain" and form a system hierarchy; 2) Intelligent assistants. The application of biometric technology has given birth to the iteration of the driver monitoring system and enhanced vehicle perception. Consumers' expectations for vehicle intelligent functions are not limited to autonomous driving and human-computer interaction; 3) Human-machine co-driving. Breakthroughs in voice control and gesture control technologies, integration of software and hardware in the car, and refined vehicle perception. The vehicle can actively provide scene-based services for the driver and passengers during the entire vehicle cycle of getting on-driving-off, and realize autonomous/semi-autonomous decision-making by the machine; 4) The third living space. In the future, car use scenarios will be more enriched and life-oriented. Based on vehicle location information, it will integrate functions such as information, entertainment, meal ordering, and interconnection to provide consumers with a more convenient experience.

Related targets:

1. Display panels: BOE, Laibao Hi-Tech, Changxin Technology;

2. Middleware software: Chuangda, Neusoft;

3. Chips: Quanzhi Technology, NavInfo;

4. Vehicle central control: Desay SV, Huayang Group, Joyson Electronics, Soling, Luchang Technology;

risk warning

The risk of policy promotion not being as expected: the current development of intelligent connected vehicles depends on the support and promotion of top-level design, and the related industries of intelligent connected vehicles cover a wide range of fields and involve many ministries and commissions. The introduction and implementation of relevant policy rules require strong And lasting impetus.

The development of intelligent network connection technology is not as expected: the development of intelligent network connection is driven by the underlying technologies represented by chips and computing platforms, and these technologies are not only engineering applications, but also involve mathematical foundations and multidisciplinary integration. Standards need to be improved, and technological breakthroughs need to be led.

The prosperity of the auto industry is not as good as expected: the uncertainty of the global epidemic and deglobalization will affect the macroeconomic trend, and the downward pressure on the macro economy and the decline in fiscal budget expenditures may have an adverse impact on the prosperity of the auto market.

related statement

team member

Cui Yan/Chief Analyst (Mobile/WeChat: 158-0086-5715/cathycuiy)

Master of Economics, 10 years of research experience in the securities industry, served as the chief analyst of the auto industry of Tianfeng Securities, Sinolink Securities, and Minsheng Securities, etc., was shortlisted for the best analyst in the auto industry in 2017, the third place in the crystal ball, and the Golden Wing Award The fourth place, the first place in WIND; the first place in the crystal ball in 2016, and the finalist of New Fortune in 2014. Focus on the research of the four modernizations of automobiles (electrification, intelligence, networking, and sharing), and dig deep into investment opportunities in the industry transformation. He joined West China Securities Research Institute in 2019.

Liu Jingyuan/Contact (Mobile/WeChat: 185-1566-9038)

Master of Economics, 1 year of research experience in securities industry + 4 years of research experience in buy-side securities. He used to be a researcher in the automobile industry and non-ferrous metal industry of the Securities Research Department of Sunshine Insurance Asset Management. He is good at analyzing investment opportunities from the buyer's perspective, focusing on new energy vehicles and heavy trucks. Industrial chain and motorcycle sector, joined West China Securities Research Institute in 2019.

Zheng Qingqing/Contact (Mobile/WeChat: 188-1733-7510)

Master of Economics, 1 year of research experience in the securities industry, 2 years of research experience in primary and secondary large consumer industries, worked in the consumer service division of Sino-Singapore Sunac, focusing on the passenger car and parts sector, and joined Huaxi Securities Research in 2019 Place.

Wu Di /Contact (Mobile/WeChat: 153-0161-7819)

Master of Power Engineering, 7 years of working experience in the automotive industry. He used to be the product manager of the Electric Drive Division of United Automotive Electronics Co., Ltd., focusing on the electric smart car industry chain and the aftermarket sector. He joined the West China Securities Research Institute in 2020.

END

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