Also talk about the future market trend of mobile devices and the selection of operating systems
I believe that many third-party dependent companies will be keen to pay attention to the trend of the next-generation mobile market. For companies that do not have the ability and funds to build their own operating systems, reasonable and correct selection of operating system suppliers is the cornerstone of the survival of small third-party companies. The reason why I choose the operating system of the mobile phone platform to discuss is because the mobile phone platform can strongly support and guide the development of the vehicle infotainment system. First look at the international report of CNET Technology Information Network on March 7: the market share data of major operating systems from November 2010 to January 2011:
figure 1
Among them, the share of Android smartphones in the US surpassed that of Apple's iPhone and RIM's BlackBerry for the first time. During the period, Android's market share in the US was 29%, and iPhone and Blackberry's market share in the US were both 27%. The operating systems of the three top smartphone manufacturers are relatively stable. During the period, Microsoft's Windows Mobile and Windows Phone 7 smartphones accounted for 10 percent of the US market, HP's WebOS smartphones accounted for 4 percent, and Nokia's Symbian smartphones accounted for 2 percent. The following are the data changes until May 2011:
figure 2
It can be clearly seen from the above figure that the market share of Android mobile phones is rising rapidly and is rising rapidly, while Apple's IOS is relatively stable. RIM's BlackBerry dropped significantly, Microsoft's Widnows mobile also dropped significantly, and Microsoft had to abandon windows mobile and turn to Windows phone7. Other smartphones such as Nokia's SymBian are also gradually declining. This is also the testimony of Nokia's first loss of 469 million euros in the financial statement in October this year in the mobile market in the past 10 years. Behind the above market changes:
one. Let’s talk about the backside of BlackBerry first (the following are 2 pieces of information from the Internet):
1. Wall Street ruthlessly dumps BlackBerry
After consulting the Toronto Stock Exchange, a reporter from New Express found that the share price of RIM, a Canadian company, dropped from 53.83 Canadian dollars on April 28 to 43.28 Canadian dollars on May 10. In less than two weeks, about 20% of the company’s market value was wiped out. If measured from the recent stock price high of 70.5 Canadian dollars in February this year, RIM’s share price has fallen by 40%. One wonders: Is this just RIM's problem, or is the entire mobile phone industry in trouble?
In contrast, Apple’s stock price has climbed from $326 to the current $350 this year after the crisis of the CEO’s sick leave, reaching a peak of $364.9; since Motorola’s switch to the Android system, its hematopoietic capabilities have continued to improve, and its stock price has risen from $23 to $25.54 a while ago; although the alliance between Nokia and Microsoft was looked down upon by Wall Street, its stock price also rose from $7.89 to $8.74, and on May 4, it also paid a dividend of 0.5 $5/share.
"Consumers are fickle and they won't buy products that are just trying to catch up to a smartphone that's been around for a while," National Bank financial analyst Kris Thompson said in a report. He also expressed doubts that BlackBerry's latest smartphone will arrive in time.
2. Will Microsoft buy BlackBerry after eating Skype?
In the just-held "BlackBerry World Conference", in addition to releasing the old BlackBerry Tablet PC PlayBook and some new mobile phones, the most unexpected bright spot is: Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer (Steve Ballmer) appeared on the stage and became the star of the press conference.
It is reported that Microsoft has reached an agreement with RIM that BlackBerry mobile phones and tablet computers will use Microsoft's Bing search engine as the default search engine and map service provider in the future. In fact, Microsoft has realized that today's trend is no longer computers, but smartphones; if Microsoft wants to survive and maintain its dominance, it must do something in the mobile field, and now they are laggards.
In order to achieve this goal, Microsoft has launched Windows Phone 7 and established a strategic alliance with Nokia, the world's largest mobile phone manufacturer; but this is not enough, so analysts believe that the acquisition of BlackBerry is a reasonable option.
Harry Wang, an analyst at market consulting firm Parks Associates, believes that Microsoft currently has $48 billion in cash and needs to invest in value-added; if RIM's market value drops to $15 billion, it will become a very attractive acquisition target for Microsoft. Currently, RIM's market capitalization is only $23.7 billion, up from $29.3 billion two weeks ago. If there are no unexpected factors, at the current rate of decline, it is not surprising that RIM's market value has dropped to 15 billion US dollars.
In addition, analysts also believe that Microsoft likes to cooperate with former competitors, which is also an important prerequisite. Historically, Microsoft has partnered with AOL, an Internet access rival that used only the Netscape browser; it also shook hands with Real-Networks, which competed with Microsoft in the emerging digital media market. Microsoft also pursued Yahoo hard, and finally reached an agreement with Yahoo to use Microsoft's search engine on its own website.
In recent years, BlackBerry has lost market share to Apple's iPhone and Google's Android smartphones. Undoubtedly, RIM also hopes to stop losses by reaching a new deal with Microsoft. Microsoft's goal is nothing more than to make Bing the leader in mobile search. But history shows that such deals do not offer much hope for either side.
For BlackBerry, Apple’s current market capitalization exceeds 320 billion US dollars. Analysts believe that this economic scale makes RIM unable to compete with it in terms of R&D expenditure. In addition, according to the latest data from IDC, although BlackBerry mobile phones temporarily rank third in smartphone shipments, Samsung and HTC have high annual growth rates. In terms of growth capabilities, it will not take long for them to surpass RIM.
Faced with a severe situation, the Canadian terminal manufacturer is trying to prove itself, announcing that it will transfer to the development of the next-generation mobile operating system bbx, and has also teamed up with QNX to keep warm. Trying to reorganize and unite with the QNX kernel to build its own next-generation operating system to restore the current situation. But so far has not released the first QNX-based mobile phone operating system is expected to be released in 2012. As for the prospects, I personally think that these two perfect marriages complement each other's deficiencies, and they have a lot in common in terms of security demands. The prospects are bright, but we will wait and see whether there is such an opportunity and ultimate achievement.
I don't know much about the QNX operating system. What I heard a little bit is that the microkernel runs extremely fast, has high real-time performance, and has very small memory requirements: another thing is the same as linux (in fact, many libraries were originally from linux and modified linux), and it does a good job in user management and support for time-sharing, multi-tasking and multi-users. The reason is that QNX has been promoting Adobe Flash lite as the embedded human-computer interaction interface, including the in-vehicle infotainment system that has been working on, which is also the main human-computer interaction interface of Adobe Flash. In 2007, he said such a sentence: "QNX uses Adobe Flash Lite to bring revolutionary changes to the design of embedded user interfaces." Now it is acquired by BlackBerry and focuses on integrating into BlackBerry's mobile phone operating system to try its best to save BlackBerry from crisis. From the moment Apple announced that it would not support Flash, BlackBerry and many other manufacturers sold their mobile phones supporting Flash as a bright spot. Jobs rejected the application of Flash in Apple from a technical point of view. The conclusion is that Flash technology has fallen behind in today's era, and it consumes too much hardware resources in mobile devices, and there is a phenomenon of frame loss. Not long ago, Adobe announced that Flash's follow-up products no longer support mobile devices. This undoubtedly limits QNX to an embarrassing and dilemma situation. The Flash human-computer interaction interface that QNX has always promoted is naturally self-defeating.
two. Behind Windows Phone 7:
在智能手机发展的初期阶段，在Symbian操作系统盛行的时期，微软的windowsmobile 在市场上也持鼎力之势，当苹果和谷歌专为智能手机设计的操作系统IOS和Android出现之后，Symbian 的地位却一直摇摇欲坠，直到目前走向没落。Windows mobile 暴露出自身的缺点（死机，耗电量大，操作复杂等），加上苹果和谷歌的冲抵给windows mobile 当头一棒。这两家的智能手机的地位迅速在市场蔓延扩张，瓜分了相当一部分Windows mobile和Symbian的市场。诺基亚把重心转向MeeGo操作系统的研究，希望能在市场上的激烈场面上得一竞争。但直到2011年4月20日，诺基亚不得不正式宣布放弃开发Meego，这也证实了正在开发的Meego操作系统不得一而流产。而在此期间，微软作为全球最有钱的软件公司不甘心落后于移动平台的市场，对Windows CE6 的内核做了全面的优化和代码的突破，重新发布了操作系统内核windows CE7，后来又改名为Windowsembedded compact 7，并彻底放弃了之前的MFC 在嵌入式设备中的应用。并把SilverLight引进嵌入式系统，为了效率的考虑，只支持C/C++ 的native code，不支持manage code，并去掉了模拟器使用Virtual PC来取代之。等等很多改进。 然后致力于研究并发布了基于windows embedded compact 7 内核的Windows phone 7 操作系统。微软不得以的快速在移动市场上滋生出赖以生存的水生环境，而诺基亚恰好就是一只即将渴死的鱼，不得以而投身微软的怀抱。下一代诺基亚的高端智能机将承载微软的Windows phone 7 操作系统，若不出意外，在2012年初在中国大陆诺基亚的Windows phone 7 将全面上市。至于前景如何，战场之势，环境恶劣变化多端实属难测，但我个人觉得微软是后发治人的。潜力无穷。且基于Windows embedded compact 7，微软也倾心打造了车载信息系统Windows automotive。目前也是唯一一家专为汽车打造的最全的操作系统平台。
三．Android 崛起的背后：
谈及Android目前的发展姿态，其手机已经在中国市场卖成“白菜价”。 更多的原因是Android 选用了linux 的开源方式和上层使用java 开源的一种形式，给市场奠定了一个彻底开源的平台，使得硬件厂商的成本大大降低，同时借助于全球Java的热潮，拥有了一个广阔的群众基础，但在Android风风火火之时也引来不少麻烦。如下是网络的一篇文章：
来自：www.williamlong.info/archives/2773.html
你是不是也拥有一台使用iOS或是Android操作系统的智能手机？据这周的新闻报道显示，Android占据了全球智能手机市场的半壁江山；而作为世界上零售领域最庞大的智能手机卖家苹果公司，也以其iOS操作系统控制了五分之一的市场。也就是说，Android和iOS加起来在全球智能手机市 场上占据了三分之二的绝大多数市场份额。
当然，我们不难解释Android在智能手机操作系统上的主导地位。毕竟这样一个完全免费并开 放源代码的平台对于许多制造商来说都极具吸引力。它吸引了包括HTC、Samsung、Acer、Sony Ericsson、LG、Motorola等等一系列厂商的关注和合作。
正是因为如此，我们对6月Google宣称其每天激活50万 Android设备的这一消息并不会感到十分吃惊。这一数据也包括平板电脑在内，不过即便是这样，它也仍然非常可观。它不仅仅显示了Android在制造 商和消费者间的普及度，同时还标志着智能手机正在成为如今社会不可缺少的一部分。
然而，Android常常在头版新闻中出现还有许多其 他的原因。这个操作系统正面临着多角度的专利争端，而这些争端给Android系统的长远发展带来了许多问题——如果制造商们需要为使用Android支 付一定的费用，那么Android如今的吸引力将可能降低大半。
回过头来看看五月的时候，我们曾经报道HTC为其出售的每台 Android设备向Microsoft支付5美元的费用。虽然这是Android首次以货币的形式使制造商们支付专利费用，不过它很显然告诉所有人——Android还是需要制造商们支付一定的费用的。去年十月，Microsoft的总裁Steve Ballmer曾说过：“Android存在专利使用费。从这点上来看，它并不是完全免费的。”
上个月，我们还报道了 Microsoft向Samsung施压，想要向其收取其发布每台Android设备15美元的费用。与此同时，似乎不仅仅是Microsoft正在给 Google带来威胁，包括苹果和Oracle在内的其他公司也开始卷入这场战争，挑战这个搜索巨头。而如今，这场战争已经发展到了非常公开的阶段。
Google在其专利地位事宜上显得非常沉默。不过据近期Google的一篇官方博文指出，Google的高级副总监同时也是首席法律专员David Drummond公开斥责Microsoft、苹果、Oracle和其它公司发起的这场“有组织的，带敌意的，针对Android的专利战争。”他还说：
“一款智能手机可能会涉及超过250000 (很有问题)项专利，而我们的竞争者们试图对所有这些半真半假的专利上附加一个‘税收’，从而抬高Android设备对消费者们的销售价格。他们想增加制造商们售卖Android设备的难度。他们不去创造一些更加新颖的功能来和Android竞争，反而走法律道路竞争。”
如果你现在还不大清楚事情的来龙去脉，那么我们最好一起来看看这件事情的前因后果。Android占据了很大的市场份额，而它的竞争者们很明显想要削弱它的支配地位。如果你想要知道为什么Microsoft和其他公司都想要从Google荷包里掏出些银子，下面的内容可能能给你一些解释。
首先，让我们看看Android的发家史……
Android的尘封历史
Android, Inc.是一家由Andy Rubin ，Rich Milner，Nick Sears和Chris White于2003年联合创办的公司。根据在当时BusinessWeek对其做的一次访问——创建Android公司两个月之前，Rubin指出开发一种更加智能的能够知道其拥有者的位置和喜好的手机设备是拥有巨大潜力的。他说，“如果人们够聪明的话，这个想法会开始涌入消费者产品中”。
除了这个愿景，Android Inc.并没有过多地透露它是如何运作的。我们只知道它在给手机开发软件。就像BusinessWeek 2005年指出的：“Android(www.android.com)将其运营隐藏得非常好，对于它的情况，人们知道得并不多。”
不过当2005年8月Google收购这家公司的时候，事情变得明朗起来。这一收购行动将Android Inc.变成了Google Inc.的全资子公司。在Google，由Rubin领导的团队开发了一个由Linux内核驱动的手机平台。然后2008年9月第一个Android设备 问世——HTCDream 1。而正是这个Android的Linux内核之后造成了Google和Android的极大困境。
Microsoft和Linux
简单说一下Linux内核，它是一个于1991年首次发布的操作系统内核(大部分电脑操作系统的主要组成部分)。同时也是一款典型的免费并开放源代码的软件(FOSS)。
如今，Microsoft认为基于Linux的操作系统(比如Android)侵犯了它的知识产权。据2007年的一篇Fortune(财富杂志)报道，Microsoft的Steve Ballmer指出这些免费软件能够有如此高的质量的主要原因是因为其侵害了Microsoft超过200项专利。
同样在2007年，据估计财富500强中超过半数的公司都在使用Linux作为他们的数据中心。其中包括Wal-Mart，AIG和Goldman Sachs。也就是说，Microsoft因此损失了大笔银子。Steve Ballmer在一次访谈中说：
“我们生活在一个以知识产权为荣的世界”，在那之前，FOSS用户必须要“遵守这个领域其他人都遵守的规则。这样才公平”。
这其中的原委说上三天三夜也许都说不完，不过它是今天Android面临如此境地的基础之一。
那为什么Microsoft不直接在手机战争中指向Google呢？很可能是由于对于Microsoft来说，对付Android设备制造商们比对付 Google来的容易得多。同时，如果目标直指设备的话，它就可以在一个巨大的竞争对手平台上强加一部分价格，否则这个对手就可以算是免费的—— Google对制造商们使用Android不收取任何费用。
Microsoft正努力以Windows Phone 7打入智能手机市场，而它也正在渗入平板电脑市场。如果Microsoft向Android手机制造商收取专利费用的话，就能降低Android在这个市 场上的竞争力。Microsoft是经过深思熟虑才采取这个行动的，他们称他们现在从HTC的Android手机上获得的钱已经比从Windows手机本 身获得的要多了。这确实很令人难以置信。
你可能已经看到苹果和Oracle都加入了这场战争，并且也想知道它们和Google的恩怨纠 缠。当Oracle——一个数据库软件公司——通过买下Sun Microsystems收购Java时，这个公司就有资本向Google提出Android侵害的7项Java专利诉求了。不过这当然不是整个故事。
CPTN Holdings是一个科技公司联合团体，它的成员包括Microsoft，苹果，Oracle和EMC Corporation。它掌控了882项由Novell出售的专利。之后还有Rockstar联合团体，而苹果和Microsoft同为其成员。这个团 体在加拿大电信公司Nortel倒闭时竞拍到了6000项专利/专利应用。
事实上，这正是之前Google的David Drummond发表不满言论的推动力——Google的竞争者们正在联合打击它，并想要以此推高Android的费用：
“他们联合起来收购Novell的旧专利(CPTN集团包括Microsoft和苹果)还有Nortel的旧专利(Rockstar集团也包括 Microsoft和苹果)，以确保Google无法得到它们。而由此他们可以对每台Android设备提出15美元的授权使用费。这样一来，对制造商来 说，使用Android将需要支付一笔授权费用(而我们是免费提供它的)。最后使得Windows Phone 7能够比Android更为便宜……专利的本意是为了激励创新，不过现在它却成为了创新的阻力。”
当Microsoft，苹果，Oracle和其它公司联合起来在手机领域对抗Google和Android时，Google之前也采取了类似的专利收购行动。实际上，它最近还从IBM那里获得了超过1000项专利。
Google和Android的未来
我们其实非常不愿意见到这种情形——这种在它们原有领域创新并依赖获取专利的战略来战胜其竞争对手。事实上，这样的情形显得很荒唐，不过专利诉讼现在确实到处都是。
Google的David Drummond公开的斥责也是个很有效的标志。Google确实在真心的担忧Android的未来，而如果想让Android继续成为手机制造商们的宠儿，它需要强有力的回击。
就像最近我们从IBM的专利收购中看到的，Google现在不得不加入这个游戏直到迎来真正的专利变革——而看起来这也需要很长的时间。就像Drummond说的：
“我们也在通过增强我们自己的专利组合来试图减少竞争者们给Android带来的影响。除非我们有所行动，消费者们可能会面临Android设备的涨价——而导致他们之后在手机设备上的选择更为局限。”
不管你怎么看待这件事情，对于Microsoft在Android上比Google和它本身的手机操作系统要挣得多(至少直接的看来)这点应该都觉得非常奇怪。
然而更奇怪的是，Google为什么没能预测到这些事情。当它在2005年收购Android Inc.，并做出我们如今所看到的手机操作系统时，它有大把机会能够意识到这些专利问题。可能由于它较晚进入智能手机市场，它缺少了一些能够相应制约 Microsoft和苹果的专利。
当然在专利战争中可能还会有更多迂回曲折的故事，Department of Justice (DoJ，司法部)已经开始调查Rockstar收购的Nortel专利是否存在反竞争的动机；同时还强制CPTN Holdings将其专利以公平的条款进行授权。也就是说，事情可能还有转圜的余地。
Android在智能手机市场上的份额正在不断减小，而其后继者和竞争者们正虎视眈眈地盯着这些市场份额。虽然Android还会继续为之奋斗抗争，不过至少从现在看来它的未来并不只是一片光明。
早在很久前，就有很多观点说开源必将统领市场，但这也不是绝对化的，更重要的是能否给客户带来全新的体验，能否满足甚至超于与客户的需求。同时顺利的迎接未来的发展。显然苹果走的是封闭式的生态系统，却也做火全球，而android 的开源一路过来也气势恢弘，暂时性压倒了微软的WM， 吞噬半个黑莓市场。这无疑给更多人，更多企业带来了深刻的思考，而如上文章所述，同时也侵犯了诸多公司的利益，迎来了专利争议，最终却还是要付一定的专利费。所以总上述材料所述，Android其实不是完全免费的，谷歌是否继续开源，或转向收取一定的费用还有待于观望和发展事态。不过最新报道，谷歌收购传统的摩托罗拉，作为扩大自己的竞争力，有人传言说因为专利问题，摩托罗拉手中有更多的专利，这样就可以与大的公司进行抗衡，究竟意义何在，其实说白就是为自己构建一个良好搭载生态环境。摩托罗拉不但有强大的专利，更有广阔的移动市场和硬件支持。
最新的数据显示，微软与诺基亚强强联手，摩托罗拉涌入google的怀抱。QNX 与黑莓成功联姻努力的证明自己，而唯有苹果独善其身还是走自己的路线。 而黑莓明显已经在这四大阵营中被边沿化，至于今后能否证明自己，能否博得市场的再次青睐，还得观望。而目前明显已经形成三足鼎力之格局。全球移动互联网三大体系均为美国企业主导，“成了美国企业的天下”，由此，使得本来就只是全球生产基地的中国企业更加边缘化。在这样一场激烈的“斗争”中，值得痛心的事情是中国目前还没有自己的OS,这无疑给中国这些依附体的企业一个深刻的教育。
怎样选择合理的操作系统已成开发当中的重中之重。一下谈谈自己对选择不同操作系统的观点：
1. QNX操作系统：
鉴于黑莓还在竭力融合其内核和上层构架，前途应该不会很差，但需要时间的等待，等待整个操作系统的生态环境得以完善；目前我们自己开发的方式：应彻底摒弃Flash作为HMI。重新构架shell 层。与其他操作系统相比，相当于“闭门造轮子“；另外需要支付额外的费用，相对安全，效率高；
2． Windows embedded compact 7 操作系统:
微软对其强大的支持，承诺10年的终身免费维护和服务，所用的技术都比较新，目前相对对别的操作系统，对车载信息系统的支持力度比较强。但由于是新技术，平台上的软件太少。潜力无穷。安全性高，相对稳定，效率高。
3. Android 操作系统
目前开源，所用的技术为java +linux ,后续会陆续发布NDK，估计可脱离java这也可摆脱sun 的专利诉讼，同时能提高效率。 开发需要投入一定的人力，但免费可用软件较多，节省好多第三方软件的开发，如导航，后期会发展如何，有待于观望。安全性目前存在一定的问题。 效率较差。
4. IOS 操作系统
完全封闭式。技术掌握有一定的难度。
5. Linux 操作系统
需要大量投入技术人员。要想创新得先站在巨人的肩膀上抄，抄熟悉了后再创新。
最后一句话，苹果做的是创新，微软做的是规范，而Android 抚恤的是穷人。
2011-11-30