The latest strategic views of the top ten brokerages are freshly released, as follows:
CITIC Securities: More than expected RRR cuts help the expected turning point is approaching
The low point of domestic economic and policy expectations has passed. The domestic economic forecast has been revised up under the verification of the data, and the lower-than-expected RRR cut has helped policy expectations rebound; the peak of global liquidity tightening expectations has passed, and the recent risk of European and American banks has no substantial impact on my country. , On the contrary, it is conducive to improving the allocation value of A shares in the world; after the most critical interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week, the turning point of market expectations will be clear; increasingly clear.
On the one hand, the domestic macro data from January to February verified the economic recovery trend at the beginning of the year. It is expected that the economic growth rate will further recover in the next two months, and the market’s expectations for the economic growth rate in 2023 are also revised up; the policy public opinion after the two sessions has been clear The policy benchmark and focus for the whole year, the lower-than-expected RRR cuts protect the economy and market confidence, and help restore policy expectations from the bottom. On the other hand, financial risks in Europe and the United States have suppressed the pace of the Fed’s interest rate hikes. The peak of global liquidity tightening expectations has passed, and the global allocation value of A shares is expected to further increase. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to stick to the growth depression, strategically allocate the "four major security" areas, and maintain a high allocation priority for the semiconductor and Xinchuang sectors. At the same time, in the financial report season, pay attention to varieties with a large room for year-on-year improvement in performance in 2023.
Huaan Securities: Exceeding expectations, RRR cuts will not change the turbulent market pattern
This week, the market fluctuated greatly, and the overall cyclical style fell sharply. TMT led the rise due to the commercial application of AI. Looking forward to the market outlook, although the RRR cut exceeds expectations, it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate, and the structural rapid rotation at the industry level will also continue. External risk appetite, although the Fed's interest rate hike expectations have been greatly weakened, the turmoil caused by the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank has not yet ended; the results of the meeting between the heads of state of China and Russia have also attracted market attention. Internal macro data verify the domestic weak recovery trend, and the expected failure of the policy "strong stimulus" will basically not occur. The unexpected RRR cut will increase the loosening of liquidity, but it is not the core contradiction in the current market and will not cause a flood of liquidity.
In terms of industry configuration, from the perspective of economic improvement and growth security, focus on three main lines: the first is "Digital China" and AI commercial applications to drive economic verification of computers and communications, and semiconductors and optical optoelectronics in upstream electronics will also benefit; The second line is real estate and downstream household appliances, light industrial manufacturing, decoration, etc., which are expected to usher in a double-click of policy and prosperity under the continuous restoration of real estate transactions; the third main line is public utilities whose demand improves with the slow recovery of the economy.
Guohai Securities: A-shares are currently or have ushered in a watershed in the market, maintaining the judgment of the main line of TMT for the whole year
Since 2000, if the interest rate of 2-year U.S. bonds has dropped rapidly and continuously, it often means the advent of economic recession, corresponding to the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and financial crisis from 2007 to 2008, and the 2020 new crown crisis. The outbreak occurred these three times. Under the impact of risk events, the decline in short-term interest rates can better reflect changes in economic expectations. The decline in U.S. bond interest rates and the rise in gold prices are trend features. In March 2019, due to the rise of systemic liquidity risk, the US dollar index rose sharply, and the price of gold would also fall.
In the early stage of the crisis, when the U.S. economy was not in recession, overseas equity and commodity markets were mostly resilient in the short term, supported by loose expectations. Nasdaq in the U.S. stock market outperformed the S&P 500, and copper in international pricing commodities was relatively resilient. However, the mid-term performance will mostly return to economic fundamentals. In the case of the US economic recession, overseas equity and commodity markets are facing downside risks. The risk exposure of European and American banks in this round of high interest rate environment is the direct factor that triggered the crisis warning. The recent global risk asset resonance adjustment is mainly due to the increase in overseas economic recession expectations. and grow.
For A-shares, the current market may have ushered in a watershed. Against the background of the domestic economy’s stabilization and recovery, there is no need to worry about deep adjustments in the general trend, but short-term market styles may switch from high to low, and valuations are relatively low and profitable. Core assets with strong stability are expected to obtain periodic excess returns. In the mid-term dimension, the pattern of "upper top and lower bottom" of the economy throughout the year is also conducive to the interpretation of the growth market, maintaining the judgment of the main line of TMT throughout the year.
Haitong Securities: TMT, represented by the rainbow digital economy, is still the main line after the short-term market ushers in the rain
The recent Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse risk incidents have triggered fluctuations in global stock markets. After the shower, there may be a rainbow in the short term, and the fall in U.S. bond interest rates is good for risky assets. It will take time to digest the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike. The rainy season is not over yet, and debt risks in some emerging market countries are still worthy of vigilance.
For the whole year, A-shares will eventually go up after the shock, and TMT represented by the digital economy is still the first main line. The "China Special Valuation System" needs attention, and new energy and consumption have structural opportunities. Pay attention to the phased investment opportunities of gold.
Minsheng Securities: Digital China and artificial intelligence are the future that still needs to be conceived
There are currently two forces in the market, one comes from the correction of past extreme market conditions in the ultra-stable market system, and the other is driven by new macro scenarios. After the period dominated by system correction forces has passed, the main line will really surface: the global inflation center will move upward. In order to maintain the stability of the financial system, the central banks of Europe and the United States are still trying to balance the two ends of the scale by expanding their balance sheets to "stabilize finance" and raising interest rates to "tighten credit". The "stagflation pattern" may eventually take shape, and the most favorable commodity is still dollar-denominated. Before a new global consensus is formed, "resources" are an underlying commodity that does not require any consensus, and its systemic importance is on the rise.
It is important to remind that the energy chain (oil, oil transportation, coal) has fully priced the recession expectation, and it is recommended to actively deploy. The precious metals (gold, silver) we reminded performed well on the commodity side, and the stock pricing was not sufficient; the revaluation of state-owned enterprises with heavy assets will Resonate with the "Belt and Road": Construction, refineries, and electricity continue to be recommended; real estate is the direction that can be deployed in the old economy; surrounding "artificial intelligence" and "digital China" is still the direction of market opportunities, but it may become the main line in 2023 "There is a long way to go."
Zheshang Securities: A new round of rising windows opens, and new energy and pharmaceuticals that have been adjusted in the previous period will begin to stabilize
After the current adjustment since the Spring Festival, driven by the four major marginal factors, a new round of rising windows will open. Standing at present, one is that sentiment has rebounded from a low level, and the other is that economic data continues to improve. This RRR cut is expected to benefit A shares. Looking back at the Fed's policy turn cycle since 1980, it can be found that the stock market and gold benefited the most from the time the Fed stopped raising interest rates to when it began to cut interest rates.
A new round of rising windows has opened. Currently, it is still in the early stage of a bull market, and new energy and pharmaceuticals that have been adjusted in the previous period will also begin to stabilize. As far as configuration clues are concerned, first, semiconductors have poor expectations, combining location, prosperity and policies, and attach importance to semiconductor equipment; second, computers are trending towards differentiation, and the March-April financial report season is a watershed, focusing on AIGC and data; third, the epidemic Post-recovery, policy cycle and corporate business cycle resonate, pay attention to the new logic in the new cycle of medicine; Fourth, combined with the changing rules of the track, new changes should be sought after new energy stabilizes, such as new technologies; Fifth, the valuation system with Chinese characteristics It is the core line of the traditional sector, focusing on profit improvement and in-depth interpretation opportunities under policy catalysis; sixth, as the inflection point of the Federal Reserve stopping raising interest rates is approaching, focus on opportunities in the gold sector.
Western Securities: The return of value investment will be the main line of market style in 2023
The market performance and style characteristics before and after the two sessions often determine the overall market trend throughout the year. In 13 of the 17 years since 2005, the market performance of the Shanghai Composite Index before and after the two sessions has played a forward-looking role in the market situation throughout the year, and in 9 of the 11 years when the ChiNext has data. The strength of the main line of the market is determined by industry trends and policy drivers. The return of value investing will be the main line of market style in 2023.
Consumption recovery and state-owned enterprise reform are the main lines of the market this year. On the one hand, after the epidemic is released, domestic policy goals will return to growth, the economic gap between old and new industries will gradually be bridged, and the profitability of traditional industries is expected to usher in a rapid recovery. On the other hand, with the rapid implementation of financial market reform policies, state-owned enterprises will The vitality is expected to be further stimulated, and the market's misunderstanding of the valuation of traditional industries in the past few years will also be repaired.
The market has entered the gestation period of the main line throughout the year, and the differentiation between large and small caps is just the beginning. In the short term, with the announcement of US inflation data and domestic economic data, market expectations for global liquidity and domestic growth are gradually reflected in asset pricing. With the implementation of the superimposed RRR cut policy, the promotion of ETF products related to central enterprises has been accelerated, and the restoration of traditional industries that are strongly related to the macro economy will continue. In the medium term, the domestic economic recovery industry diverges and converges, the market's long-term expectations for the global interest rate center are gradually revised, and the promotion of financial reforms boosts the valuation of traditional industries. The return of value style is still the general trend. In the medium term, we will look at subdivided fields such as consumer medicine, traditional Chinese medicine, pharmacy, and medical equipment with strong consumption attributes in medicine; household appliances, building materials, light industry and other industries in the post-real estate cycle; subdivided industries such as storage and panels in consumer electronics.
Bank of China Securities: Loose domestic and foreign liquidity expectations are good for the trend of A-shares, and technology growth will benefit more
Overseas markets are pricing in recession, and easing has moved from expectations to reality. RRR cuts are boosted, and technology takes advantage of the momentum. The timing of this reduction is rare in history. At present, the short cycle of China's economy is in the early stage of expansion, and the stage of passive destocking. We have counted the four same cycle stages since 2009, and there was only one RRR cut in May 2020, which shows that the easing signal released by the RRR cut in the context of this early cycle exceeded expectations. Judging by the scenario that the domestic economy is likely to recover weakly, domestic and foreign liquidity expectations are undoubtedly positive for the trend of A shares. The current overall valuation level of A shares is at the 40% level in the past 10 years, and there is still room for valuation restoration driven by loose liquidity. In terms of market style, technological growth will benefit more. Under the judgment of weak economic recovery, high-growth sectors are scarce, and the market is more concerned about growth space under the expectation of loose liquidity. In the industry, TMT technology is forming a closed loop of soft and hard technology. In the second half of the hardware, the path of the first half of the software is gradually clear.
GF Securities: "Dawn" market waiting for "April decision", the main line gradually becomes clear
The "Dawn" market is waiting for "April's decision", and the main line is gradually becoming clear-the Δ trio of "Thinking·Change". Policy reversal (digital economy + central state-owned enterprise revaluation is a new starting point for widening credit), dilemma reversal (real estate and epidemic turning point, the strength of recovery is determined in April), U.S. debt reversal (U.S. long-term interest rate peaks and falls) .
The 23-year configuration continues to focus on the Δ trio of "Thinking·Change". Maintain the judgment since the "Dawn" series on 11.10, "Hong Kong stocks are in a bull market, and A shares are in a repair market." The core logic of the market is still the delta trio of "thinking and changing". Industry configuration: 1. "Policy reversal": "Revaluation of central state-owned enterprises" and "Digital China" are expected to become new starting points for steady growth and "re-leveraging" (operators/construction/semiconductors/Innovation); 2. "dilemma "Reversal": Prefer low valuations and high Δg (consumer building materials/automation equipment/innovative drugs/Chinese medicine); Consumption priority" & "consumption upgrade": health care (medical services/equipment); (2) Overseas liquidity reversal "reconstruction" & "development": platform economy; (3) Expansion of effective demand: real estate completion chain (home appliances/ furniture).
Zhongtai Securities: New energy leaders may usher in a short-term rebound
The market fluctuated and consolidated this week. In the context of the "cooling" of US inflation and the SVB crisis affecting the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, the recovery of domestic economic data, and the central bank's RRR cuts, it is recommended to properly allocate security sectors such as military industry and semiconductors. High dividends and low valuations Central enterprises and pharmaceuticals are defending, and pay attention to the performance of short-term new energy leaders. Specifically:
The growth rate of military expenditures this year has maintained a steady growth, superimposed on the security of the supply chain and the catalysis of the reform of state-owned enterprises of military industrial groups, and there may be greater structural opportunities in the military sector; The sector may have greater policy support, forcing the localization rate to increase;
A new round of state-owned enterprise reform has kicked off. The leading state-owned enterprises with low valuations and high dividends are still in the "depression" of A-share valuations, and the realization of value is expected to reshape the valuation of central enterprises;
The long-term and complex impact of the epidemic on society, the increase in residents' demand for medical treatment and the country's subsequent investment in medical resources are accelerating. The prosperity of the pharmaceutical sector, including traditional Chinese medicine, medical equipment, OTC, and pharmacies, will run through the whole of next year, or even longer The cycle, traditional Chinese medicine, OTC and other pharmaceutical varieties can be gradually deployed when they are adjusted;
This institutional reform and policy formulation put more emphasis on the safety of the development of strategic emerging industries. In the future, the supervision of emerging industries such as new energy may be further strengthened. The problems of overcapacity and price wars that are most worrying about the new energy sector may be partially resolved. show. For more stock information, follow Caijing365!