In June, compliance and supervision became the main theme of the encryption field this month. Overseas, the SEC successively sued two major trading platforms, Binance and Coinbase, and listed almost all cryptocurrencies except BTC, ETH, USD, etc. as securities. The market was in an uproar, and the market was closely related to it. As market makers slowly exited the market, crypto liquidity was withdrawn again. Even under the background of the Fed’s suspension of interest rate hikes, it has not improved, and the market value of the main stablecoin has shrunk. However, at the end of the month, the entry of traditional institutions led to a roller-coaster turning point in the market. BlackRock’s application for BTC trusts led to a surge in grayscale GBTC. Wall Street’s background exchange EDX once again sparked speculation on national exchanges. Under the positive superposition, BTC once rushed to 31,000 US dollars at the end of the month, and it was still above 30,000 US dollars as of the press date. However, the current surge is more of an emotional game, and the core liquidity problem has not yet been resolved, and the follow-up remains to be seen. Looking back to Hong Kong, Hong Kong’s new encryption regulations came into effect this month and officially opened for licensing applications, but the market reaction was a little flat, and the data performance was not even as good as the Hong Kong concept period in April. In this regard, there is still a long way to go for local development .
Policy direction, on June 1, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission's "Guidelines for Encrypted Asset Trading Platforms" and "Guidelines for Anti-Money Laundering" came into effect, and license applications are open. However, due to the combination of factors such as increased compliance costs, retail restrictions, and blurred channels in the Mainland, the industry did not respond beyond expectations to the new regulations in Hong Kong. From the perspective of market performance alone, funds in the primary market have flowed out, growth in the secondary market has been sluggish, and Hong Kong concept coins have fallen across the board. From the analysis of the reasons, the full implementation of the license has pushed up the compliance cost in Hong Kong. However, due to the restrictions on retail currency and the prohibition of main business such as pledge, the Hong Kong market is obviously restricted, and the business performance is expected to be low. Taking OSL as an example, not only is the daily trading volume far lower than that of global exchanges, but its STO listing cost is also an order of magnitude higher than that of overseas compliant exchanges. On the other hand, the deposit and withdrawal channel has not yet been determined. Due to the risk of money laundering, even though the HKMA has made it clear that it will not establish a higher service threshold for virtual asset service providers, local banks still have concerns, so it is difficult for compliant trading platforms to operate in Hong Kong. The bank obtains account opening services. In this regard, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has already taken action. According to the "Financial Times", the HKMA has held a meeting and urged HSBC and Standard Chartered Bank to accept encrypted trading platforms as customers. At the same time, Laoqian is also interested in moving. Some securities companies and asset management companies have begun to apply for licenses through their subsidiaries to get involved in this business. Only at this stage, there is a time lag in the entry of Laoqian. One is the long-standing platform of Hong Kong’s traditional institutions to collect rent The system hinders the pricing of emerging economies. Second, there are too many target choices, and the uncertainty of Web3 is too strong. It is standard to wait and see rather than participate.
In terms of investment and financing, the market sentiment in June was still relatively sluggish, and market investment continued to decrease. 76 investment and financing events were completed in the whole month, a decrease of 11 from the previous month. Back to the level in January 2023, ranking second to last in the total investment and financing since 2022. The average financing amount decreased accordingly. The average financing amount in June was about 44 million yuan, a decrease of 17.44% from the previous value, and continued to be at a low level since 2022. From the perspective of the field, although the overall data remains strong, the number of blockchain industry applications continued to decrease in June. There were 57 blockchain industry applications in June, a month-on-month decrease of 13.36%, accounting for 75% of all events. The total investment and financing It was 2.415 billion yuan, basically the same as last month. The digital currency has experienced a significant decline this month, with a total amount of 514 million yuan, a sharp drop of 72.15% from the previous value, which led to a 29% drop in the total investment and financing this month. This decline is highly correlated with the strong supervision of the United States. Before the attributes are clarified, any digital currency and DeFi business has a risk of violation. In order to avoid risks, this type of investment and financing is expected to continue to decline. In June, the amount of infrastructure increased by 183 million yuan to 257 million yuan compared with the previous month, but it was still at a low level. The value was 849 million yuan in April. The blockchain application technology has also declined, with a decrease of 134 to 89 million yuan. Most of the application technologies are protocols, which have a certain relationship with digital currency.
Industry direction, on June 12, Bank of China International announced that it had successfully issued 200 million yuan of fully digital structured notes, becoming the first Chinese-funded financial institution to issue blockchain digital securities in Hong Kong. UBS is in charge of this product Initiated and sold to its Asia-Pacific customers. Due to the non-tamperable and divisible ownership of the blockchain, all real assets can be tokenized on the chain. RWA is also considered by practitioners to be the most convenient and promising track for the traditional financial industry to intervene. Security token issuance (STO) is a typical representative of this track. According to the forecast of Bernstein, a market analysis agency, about 2% of the global money supply will be tokenized in the next five years, which is about 3 trillion US dollars. At present, many traditional institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, DBS Bank, UBS, Santander Bank, Société Générale, Hamilton Lane, etc. have begun to explore this track and test and release some products. As the access point between traditional finance and Web3, the tens of billions of financial circles only need to realize an investment of 1% to recreate an encrypted world. The potential of this track is self-evident, but in practice, apart from infrastructure In addition to optimization, issues such as liquidity, supervision, and cost are still insurmountable, and the legal chain involved is particularly complicated. Looking at the world, there is no region with a high degree of STO completion, and even the United States and Singapore are only in the early stages of exploration. Theoretically speaking, this track has potential for development, but in reality, it still needs to be further imagined when the blockchain itself is already very common.
CBDC has received attention again this month. Georgieva, president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that the IMF is working on developing a global CBDC platform to enable cross-country CBDC transactions, thereby avoiding the impact of cryptocurrencies on inter-country transactions. Penetration of currency exchanges. Coincidentally, Chen Maobo, Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, also mentioned that the digital Hong Kong dollar is in the research stage, the multilateral central bank’s digital currency bridge project has entered the trial phase, and the cooperation with the People’s Bank of China on digital renminbi cross-border retail payments has also entered the second phase of testing. The goal is to add value to the digital RMB wallet through FPS in the future. Throughout the world, most mainstream central banks have begun to conduct research on CBDC. According to data from the Atlantic Council, an American think tank, central banks of 130 countries and regions accounting for 98% of the global economy are exploring digital currencies, and nearly half of them are in advanced development, In the pilot or start-up phase, all G20 countries except Argentina have entered the advanced phase. Judging from the current pilot, the practicability of CBDC has already begun to be verified. Although the swap between cross-border transactions is still being piloted, the follow-up unified network is highly predictable. On the other hand, the United States is still cautious about the digital dollar at the current stage, mainly on the sidelines. However, at the end of last year, the Innovation Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the United States jointly launched a 12-week pilot program with Citigroup, HSBC and other groups. Deng also issued an executive order to study it. It can be seen that the United States is not silent about this. Judging from the existing actions, it will at least choose to maintain the current US dollar as the main currency by formulating relevant standards or building alternative networks. Settlement of the trade payment structure.
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