In the yield curve, the short-term interest rate is below 1 year , the long-term interest rate is more than 5 years , and the middle-end interest rate is in the middle.
Duration strategy : Evaluate based on fundamental value. The economic environment and market risk assessment, as well as the specific requirements of the fund's bond investment on risk and return, determine the duration allocation of the bond portfolio.
Social financing : According to the definition of the central bank, the scale of social financing (that is, social financing) refers to the total amount of funds obtained by the real economy from the financial system in a certain period of time.
PPI : Producer Price Index for Industrial Products (PPI for short) is an index to measure the trend and degree of ex-factory price changes of industrial enterprises. It is an important economic indicator reflecting the price changes in the production field in a certain period. An important basis for economic policy and national accounting. PPI measures the price information of the three production stages of raw materials, semi-finished products and final products in the production process of enterprises. The rise of PPI will increase the procurement costs of enterprises, and the increase in costs incurred in the production stage cannot be effectively passed on to consumers. It will reduce or even lose money, so PPI is also one of the indicators that many stock market investors focus on.
The English full name of PMI is Purchase Management Index, and the Chinese translation is Purchasing Managers Index. PMI is a set of comprehensive economic monitoring index system released monthly, which is divided into manufacturing PMl, service industry PMl, and some countries have established construction industry PMl.
China Leading Economic Index
Leading Indicator (Leading Indicator), also known as leading indicators or leading indicators, is one of the most important economic indicators for predicting future economic development and is the weighted average of various economic variables that guide the economic cycle. The leading index is composed of many elements, involving many aspects of the national economy. Taking the leading index of the United States as an example, it mainly includes the following elements: 1. The average weekly workload of the manufacturing industry. 2 Average weekly jobless claims. 3 Manufacturers added orders for consumer goods and raw materials. 4 Vendor delivery performance - the percentage of their factory late deliveries. 5 Contracts, orders for plant and equipment. 6 New building permits for private investment. 7 M2 money supply. 8 S&P 500 stock index and dividend yield. 9 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. 10 Difference between production cost and selling price. If most of these factors are positive, the leading index can be expected to rise in advance. The leading index is usually released once a month, and the release time varies from country to country. If the leading index falls for three consecutive months, it indicates that the economy is about to enter a recession; if it rises for three consecutive months, it means that the economy is about to prosper or continue to expand. Leading indicators usually have a leading time of 6 to 9 months. In the United States, leading indicators are generally believed to predict economic downturns 11 months before recessions and economic recovery 3 months before economic expansions. After World War II, the leading index has been successfully used to predict the inflection point of the economic boom and bust of the western developed countries.
M0, M1, and M2 are three definitions of money supply , respectively representing cash in circulation, narrow money and broad money.
M0=cash in circulation
M1=M0+ unit current deposits that can be paid by check
M2=M1+resident savings deposits+corporate time deposits+corporate other deposits+securities company customer deposits
In daily life, a high M0 value proves that ordinary people are well-off and rich. This possibility is even higher when there is no need to worry about food and clothing. M1 reflects the actual purchasing power in the economy, represents changes in the tightness of funds of residents and enterprises, and is a leading indicator of economic cycle fluctuations, and its liquidity is second only to M0. M2 not only reflects the actual purchasing power, but also reflects the potential purchasing power. Liquidity is weak, but it reflects changes in aggregate social demand and pressure from future inflation.
The Reuters Commodity Research Bureau Index ( CRB Index, Commodity Research Bureau Index) is a futures price index compiled by the U.S. Commodity Research Bureau based on the prices of a variety of basic economically sensitive commodities in the world market, usually referred to as the CRB index. The CRB index is composed of a package of commodity prices. The commodity index calculated on this basis reflects the overall fluctuation of commodity prices in the United States. It enables institutional and individual investors to use index transactions to obtain comprehensive changes in commodity prices. profit opportunities.
Shibor is the abbreviation of Shanghai InterBAnk Offered Rate, that is, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate. In fact, to be more transparent, shibor is actually the interest rate triggered by the lending behavior between big banks.
R007 is the seven-day repurchase rate, which is the seven-day repurchase rate for inter-bank market participants (here it can be understood as institutional investors participating in securities transactions) pledged by interest rate bonds, and the target of the repurchase is bonds. The 7-day repurchase rate is currently the most meaningful interest rate in the market. Due to its large number of participating institutions and large transaction volume, it is not easy to be manipulated by individual institutions. In addition, the seven-day repurchase rate is sensitive, continuous and elastic, so it has become a key interest rate indicator in the money market.
DR007 is the 7-day repurchase rate for pledges of interest rate bonds among depository institutions. The so-called "depository institutions" mainly refer to banking institutions. In addition, the pledge targets of DR007 are limited to treasury bonds, central bank bills and policy financial bonds.
The difference between DR007 and R007 is that, first, the participants of DR007 are mainly banks, while the participants of R007 include non-financial institutions in addition to banks, and the scope of its participants is wider. 2. The collateral of DR007 is low-risk national debt as the target. Due to the narrow range of participants and collateral, the convenience of DR007 is greatly reduced. However, since DR007 has a positive effect on cultivating market benchmark interest rates, it can also reduce the disturbance of counterparty credit risk and collateral quality on interest rate pricing, and can better reflect the liquidity tightness of the banking system. An important window of degree.
The biggest difference between DR007 and Shibor is: whether it is the real transaction rate. The data of DR007 is the real data obtained after the actual transaction between banks, which is the real transaction rate; while Shibor is an interest rate calculated based on the quotation of the quoting bank, not the real transaction rate.
GDP : Refers to the total market value of all goods and services produced in a country at a given time. GDP is used to measure the overall economic situation of a country, and GDP per capita is used to measure the living standards of people in various countries.
The full name of PMI is Purchasing Manager Index, which is an index obtained from a questionnaire survey of corporate purchasing managers. This survey is conducted once a month, organized by the National Bureau of Statistics and implemented by the provincial survey teams.
CPI is the consumer price index, which is to reflect the price changes of some daily consumer goods. Its statistical scope does not include all consumer goods, but chooses 8 categories, namely: food, tobacco, alcohol, clothing, housing, daily necessities and Services, transportation and communications, education, culture and entertainment, health care, and other supplies and services; among them, under the 8 categories, there are 262 subcategories of commodities, each with its own corresponding proportion.