Drug market size forecasting is a very critical step that can help judge whether the project is worth investing in or developing. Here are some common methods:
The drug market size can be subdivided into therapeutic area market size, drug type market size, regional market size, channel market size, brand market size, nature market size, etc. Understanding these scales is a critical step that can help determine whether a pharmaceutical project is worth developing or investing in based on its scale. Here are some common ways to understand the market size of various pharmaceuticals:
- Through market research and calculations
About the Calculation Method of Drug Market Size
The simple logic is: market size = patient treatment cost * number of patients
Generally, the main way to obtain the number of patients is to inversely calculate the prevalence rate.
The number of patients = the number of people in the region * the regional prevalence rate, and the regional prevalence rate is partially disclosed in major institutions, which can be carefully verified for reference.
Further analysis: Disease treatment cost = treatment cost per period * time when the disease is cured (or survival period after the disease)
There are many influencing factors for further analysis:
The age structure of the disease (generally the younger the age, the more expensive the treatment will be)
The characteristics of the disease (chronic disease, acute disease; high or low mortality rate; length of survival, etc.)
Treatment plan (complicated and expensive plan but quick effect; simple plan but long recovery time or painful treatment)
。。。。。
- Analyzing the market size of pharmaceuticals through tool system
For example, the Yaorong Cloud database, which is the most widely used by pharmaceutical companies, can efficiently investigate the scale of China's pharmaceutical market & the scale of pharmaceutical market segments. The following is the author's operation case.
①Market size of a certain type of drug <generic drug>
If a generic drug is to be developed, it is not only necessary to investigate the market size of the reference preparation, but also to understand the market size of the same type of drug. Drugs with the same active ingredients that have been marketed can be screened out through the Yaorong Cloud database, and then the drug sales data in the regional market can be checked through its hospital and retail channel terminals, and the market size of the drug can be obtained after summarization.
Image source: Yaorongyun - Abecili Tablets - Hospital Sales Data
②Market size of drugs in a certain disease field <improved drugs>
If it is to develop an improved drug, then the drug market size in its disease field will be listed as a key point. In the same way as above, drugs with target indications are screened through the Yaorong Cloud database, and their sales data are aggregated through the hospital sales database to determine their market size.
Image source: Drug R&D Database of Yaorong Cloud
③The market size of a certain original research drug <original research drug>
If it is to develop an original research drug, then it is necessary to conduct a detailed research on the market size of the global coverage. In addition to the market data of the above-mentioned market size, it is also necessary to investigate the global market size, and check the data through Yaorong Cloud-Global Drug Sales Database
Image source: Yaorong Cloud global drug sales data
④ Of course, there are also markets that focus on the market size of benchmark drugs and the market size of drugs for major diseases, such as tumors, which can be analyzed and understood separately.
It should be noted that researching the current market size is only one of the factors. It is often necessary to research the historical sales data of the market in the past few years and combine the policies of previous years to comprehensively analyze the annual compound growth rate, and then through Yaorongyun's drug development pipeline. The database analyzes the drugs under research that may be launched in the next few years, which will have an impact on the market for its own drugs, and finally comprehensively analyzes its own business size, channels, medical insurance, centralized procurement, population, policies, environment and other factors to predict its own market in the next few years. Drug market space.
The above are the two commonly used drug market scale data research methods summarized by the author.