* * * Original: Liu Jiaolian * * *
Three months after Bitcoin led the rise, the Ethereum pledge was unlocked and began to exert its strength. While Bitcoin was still resting at more than 30,000, it stood at 2,100 dollars in one go.
The market has recovered to such a level, and many friends are still immersed in the sorrows of the past. I really should read Tagore's poem again: When you cry for missing the sun, you will miss the stars again.
I don't encourage dwelling on past emotions, but that doesn't mean I agree with forgetting the past. Past experiences, good or bad, are our footprints in life. Without the stupidity of the past, how can there be growth in the present and harvest in the future?
The same is true for investments. Review and review from time to time, count the past to know the future, objectively and rationally analyze the past gains and losses, and take it as a mirror. Now that we are a little bit smarter, that is something to be happy about.
Today's article is a dry article full of numbers. Of course, don't be intimidated by the numbers. The required mathematical knowledge does not exceed the elementary school level, that is, addition and division.
What I want to do in today's article is not the usual review and review in the past, but regression testing. It is intended to compare various investment strategies and find the best strategy.
At the same time, today's article also reviews the main turning points of the author's views published on the Liu Jiaolian official account before and after the 2021 bull market, and uses different strategies for backtesting.
Before we start, let’s look at it from the rearview mirror perspective of hindsight, starting from breaking through the 2017 high of 19,800 at the end of 2020 as the starting point of the bull market, until March 2023, the perfect big-band operation like a fairy, and its profitability.
First of all, when breaking through on December 16, 2020, enter the market with a principal of 10,000 yuan, and buy at a precise price of 1.98 million.
Then, at the first high point of 6.48w on April 14, 2021, it was sold precisely.
Third, buy precisely at the first low point of 2.88w on June 22, 2021.
Fourth, sell precisely at the second highest point of 6.9w on November 10, 2021.
Fifth, buy precisely at the second lowest point of 1.55w on November 22, 2022. hold so far.
Increase position 3 times, decrease position 2 times. Based on the current price of $30,000, the value of the position is 150,000. The initial principal has been doubled by 15 times, and the floating profit is 1400%.
Fairy hand. Floating profit 1400%.
No one should think that he is a fairy hand, right? If what you are after is the result of the above model, it is recommended to go home and lie on the bed, maybe there is one in the dream.
good. Next, let's take a look at the disk feeling of the teaching chain in reality. The five most representative articles are listed as follows:
A Article: Three Prophecies Published: 2020.12.20 Price: 2w Direction: Bullish
Article B: Trillions at the Opening Time: 2021.5.11 Price: 5.8w Direction: Bearish
C Article: Airdrop Strikes Out Published: 2021.7.22 Price: 3w Direction: Bullish
Article D: There is no second half at the end of the year Published: 2021.10.15 Price: 6w Direction: Bearish
Article E: The Last Carnival of Shrinking Cows Published: 2022.4.21 Price: 4w Direction: See more
Before calculating, it is still necessary to declare and emphasize that the teaching chain has always discouraged timing and firmly opposes speculation in the band, and even more against increasing leverage. The article is by no means the basis for operation, which is emphasized and emphasized again at the bottom of each article. The point of watching the tape is to exercise your thinking, not to shoot yourself in the temple. Bazi Jue . Firmly hold currency , not moving like a mountain . Applaud when you rise, increase your position when you fall . Five Fingers Law . Uncertainty principle . Etc., etc. These are the cornerstones of the education chain investment philosophy. Learn to crawl first, then try to walk, and finally run. Can't climb, but want to run 100 meters faster than Bolt? Do you want to beat Lin Dan even if you don't even reach the bottom line? Want to overthrow the theory of relativity before you learn calculus?
However, we can still experiment through backtesting. What if some people do not listen to persuasion and insist on finding out what to do in the next game?
Let's first assume one of the stupidest strategies for fools: increase positions without thinking at the five points A to E. At the two strongly bearish points of B and D, you still increase your position and go long, so this strategy is called a fool's strategy. Add 10,000 knives per point. A total of 5 positions were added, and the average holding cost was $3.50k. Compared with the current 30,000 dollars, the floating loss is 14%.
Fool's strategy. Floating loss of 14%.
Is it surprising that a fool only loses 14%? If you have lost more than 14% in this round of bull market, please reflect on it.
In fact, looking back, Microstrategy and El Salvador, these two guys basically followed the fool's strategy. However, the micro-strategy is well controlled, and it has turned losses into profits.
Next, let's take a look at a slightly more clever strategy. Only add positions at the three bullish points A, C, and E, but do not move at the shortish points B and D. According to the yellow line set by the teaching chain in 2021, the investment stop line is 50,000 dollars, and the two points B and D should also stop investment. Increase positions 3 times, and the average increase cost is 2.77w. Holding it so far, the floating profit is 8%.
Well-behaved strategy. The floating profit is 8%.
What if some people rely on their skills to be bold, and pretend to be smart to sell high and buy low to make swings? Then, starting from the principal of 1w, buy at bullish points A, C, and E, sell at bearish points B, D, increase the position 3 times, and reduce the position 2 times. The current value of the full position is 4.35w, an increase of 4.35 Times, floating profit 335%.
Artists are bold. Floating profit 335%.
Well, the above three are self-assessment and operation at the right time. Readers just take a look, don't follow suit. Next, let's take a look at the backtest data of the Bazijue strategy summarized by Jiaolian.
The first is the ordinary horoscope. For the sake of simple backtesting, the cycle is monthly (the amount of data in other operating cycles is too large, if you are interested, you can backtest by yourself). Buy 10,000 at the opening of each month (stick to the fixed investment), and buy 1,000 more if the market falls every month (add to the position when the market falls). The backtest time window is from December 2020 to March 2023. The buying point and price are as follows (note that the plus sign indicates two purchases): 1.9w 2.8w 3.2w 4.3w 5.9w+5.7w 5.7w+3.7w 3.7w+3.4w 3.4w 4.1w 4.7w+4.3w 4.3 w 6w+5.7w 5.7w+4.8w 4.8w+3.7w 3.7w 4w 4.6w+3.8w 3.8w+3.2w 3.2w+1.9w 1.9w 2.3w+2w 2w+1.9w 1.9w 2w+1.7w 1.7 w+1.6w 1.6w 2.3w 2.3w, increased positions 42 times, and the average position price is 2.91w, which is 3% compared to the current 3w floating profit.
Bazi Jue. The floating profit is 3%.
If you take into account the 5w yellow line drawn by the teaching chain in the 2021 bull market? Remove the above-mentioned increase points of more than 5w. The data is as follows: 36 positions were added, the average position price was 2.68w, and the floating profit was 12%.
Bazi Jue + Stop Investment. The floating profit is 12%.
It should be a level that everyone can achieve to achieve a 3-12% rate of return without any effort.
Here, there is an interesting knowledge point. That's what the teaching chain said, the problem of the "downwind" start and the "headwind" start. The "tailwind game" means that you enter the market at a low point just before the start of the bull market, and the more you buy, the higher the price, the higher the profit. The "headwind situation" means that you enter the market just in time for the high point at the end of the bull market, and the more you buy, the more you fall, the more you lose, the more painful it is.
The fate of life is so different. Destiny, timing also. Intuitively, you may feel that the tailwind is so good. But the teaching chain tells you that the luckiest is to start against the wind. If you don't believe me, let's look at the data.
If we assume that Zhang San and Li Si are both Bazijue + stop investment line strategies, the difference is that Zhang San entered the market from December 2020, while Li Si entered the market from the second highest point in November 2021, and the market fell. Break the 5w stop investment line and start to execute the Bazi Jue. Then Li Si increased his position a total of 24 times, with an average position price of 2.42w and a floating profit of 24%.
Eight-character tactics + stop investment, start against the wind. The floating profit is 24%.
Finally, we are calculating another benchmark reference (benchmark): brainless fixed vote. Buy at the opening time, the time window is also from December 2020 to March 2023. Increased positions 28 times, the average position price was 2.96w, and the floating profit was 1.3%.
Brainless fixed bet. Floating profit of 1.3%.
Obviously, any strategy of Bazijue, whether it is a brainless Bazijue or an optimized Bazijue, is better than a brainless fixed investment.
Finally, let's make a list to summarize:
Fairy hand. 1400% profit.
Fool's strategy. 14% loss.
Well-behaved strategy. 8% profit.
Artists are bold. The profit is 335%.
Bazi Jue. 3% profit.
Bazi Jue + Stop Investment. 12% profit.
Eight-character tactics + stop investment, start against the wind. 24% profit.
Brainless fixed bet. Profit 1.3%
The conclusion is clear. Bazijue's strategy saves worry and effort, makes a good profit, and has no risk of falling short, which is a stable happiness.
* * * Produced by Liu Jiaolian * * *
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List of articles with more than 10,000 views on Liu Jiaolian's official account:
Satoshi Nakamoto's Legendary Treasure (1w+)
Bitcoin has won (4w+)
Is Bitcoin about to suffer a real crash? (1.6w+)
PlanB: The Bitcoin bull market is over. (1.5w+)
Buffett: All Bitcoins are only worth $25. (4w+)
How do big investors with 129,000 bitcoins view bitcoin (1.8w+)
You can't learn the success of SHIB (1.1w+)
(Public account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: Reply to "Planet" from the public account)
(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is a very high-risk product, and there is a risk of zeroing at any time. Please participate carefully and be responsible for yourself.)