Core Tip: Technological progress, globalization and climate change, these three factors combine to bring us into an era of accelerated change. The future era belongs to lifelong learners and cross-border masters, and future leadership positions are for those "new human beings" who can integrate global teams, connect technology and humanities, and have vision, insight and charisma.
Thomas Friedman, a columnist for The New York Times, is one of America's best-known best-selling authors.
His first book on globalization was "Lexus and the Olive Tree", and "The World is Flat", published in the United States in 2005, was very popular as soon as it came out, and paper was expensive in Luoyang. This book has also sold very well in China and has become an introductory textbook for many entrepreneurs to learn about economic globalization.
He Fan, a famous economist, not only has a thorough analysis of domestic economic phenomena, but also has a profound interpretation of the BRICS countries, the United States and the entire world economic situation.
The World Is Flat is a very optimistic book. This book brought a lot of confidence and inspiration to Chinese entrepreneurs at the time, but globalization did not go smoothly as Friedman predicted. The global financial crisis broke out in 2008, and globalization stagnated or even regressed. Opposition to globalization is growing, technology is advancing faster and the potential risks from climate change are already on the horizon. Ten years later, Friedman wrote another book, Thank You for Being Late.
What will he tell us?
It's not that I don't understand, the world is changing fast
Summarize the core point of "Thank you for being late" in one sentence, that is: the world is getting faster. When the world gets faster, people feel uncomfortable. Speed doesn't always bring excitement, speed also brings vertigo.
If you sit in a sports car and can accelerate to 100 kilometers in two or three seconds, how cool is that, but if you keep accelerating at this speed, the car runs faster than a rocket, can you stand it? All of our misfits are because technology is changing too fast, and we humans are too slow to adapt.
The technological progress curve is exponential. We humans do struggle to adapt to advances in technology, but our rate of adaptation is linear. If you draw an exponential curve and a straight line on a graph, you will find that the two lines will have an intersection, then the exponential curve will become steeper and the straight line will lag the exponential curve The gap will increase. We have now reached the point where the straight line lags the exponential curve.
It's not that I don't understand, the world is changing fast. This is why we feel more and more anxious. We grow up to be educated for 12 years, 16 years, or even longer. We originally thought that after school, we would not have to study any more. But the reality is that when you finish college, you realize that everything you've learned is outdated and you have to start all over again. What kind of feeling is this?
The winners and losers of globalization
We are standing at a turning point in history.
Gone are the golden eras of rapid global economic growth. Gone is the harmonious world where people of all countries worked together to make money in the wave of globalization. It is getting harder and harder to start from scratch, from 0 to 100 million, in a very short time. The rigidity of social class is becoming more and more serious. Just relying on hard work cannot change the fate. Family rank is the most important factor in determining the fate.
Economists like to talk about the benefits of globalization to the world economy. Indeed, in theory, economic globalization can bring more benefits, but the problem is that with benefits, there is a distribution of benefits. In the process of economic globalization, there are winners and losers. How can we deal with the distribution of benefits more reasonably and fairly so that globalization can be supported by more people?
If we divide the groups into smaller groups, the various classes will become more rigid, and the conflicts between groups will become more intensified. The wall allows us to concentrate on improving internal unity, listen to everyone's opinions, and create a more harmonious community. Everyone has common beliefs, can negotiate with each other, are willing to make compromises with each other, and can have a mechanism for dialogue and communication. , the mechanism of checks and balances. The rules should become clearer so that people can make long-term plans for the future and encourage long-term investment. Without long-term expectations, there is no long-term investment. Without long-term investment, there can be no long-term economic growth.
A Risky "Anthropocene"
We are forcing the planet away from the sweet spot due to human activity. Some scientists even believe that we are no longer in the Holocene, and now is a new era created by humans, that is, the "Holocene".
Nature is a system, and the system has boundaries where it can function safely, but we are crossing the tipping point. Thomas Friedman mentioned nine key boundaries of the Earth system.
One is climate change. The second is biodiversity. We should maintain biodiversity equivalent to 90% of pre-industrial levels. Biodiversity levels in parts of Africa have fallen to 84 percent, and are falling further. The third is forest degradation. We must preserve about 75% of the Earth's primary forests. This level has now dropped to 63%. The fourth is the biochemical flow on the earth. The fifth is ocean acidification. Six is the use of fresh water. Our massive abstraction of fresh water from rivers and groundwater has brought problems such as depletion of water sources and degradation of forests and wetlands. Seven is the load of atmospheric aerosols. Eighth is the "introduction of new substances", that is, chemical substances, compounds, plastics, nuclear wastes, etc. that we have invented and created. Nine is the thickness of the stratospheric ozone layer. The stratospheric ozone layer protects us from the dangerous UV radiation that causes skin cancer.
Climate change has put many developing countries in a bind, especially in the Middle East and Africa, where agricultural production has been severely disrupted. Future global population growth will mainly come from Africa. So many impoverished and desperate young people, in a globally interconnected and interdependent world, will bring all kinds of unexpected shocks to us.
Technological progress, globalization, and climate change, all three combined to bring us into an era of accelerated change. As humans struggle to adapt to such rapid and complex change, and the diverse responses that arise, our nation, our community, and ourselves face unprecedented challenges in this era of accelerated change.
The new geopolitics is about everyone
From the end of World War II to the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, it was an economic and political "Holocene". Economically, the global economy has maintained stable economic growth since World War II, and the global geopolitical environment is relatively stable.
During the Cold War, many countries, especially those that became independent after World War II, did not have the ability to achieve economic development independently, and it was difficult to maintain political stability. However, because the two superpowers secretly provided various support, Provide them with funds to build infrastructure, give them technical assistance, open up their own markets, help them build stadiums, and provide them with opportunities to study abroad.
In the event of an emergency, the two superpowers will immediately intervene. However, the United States has become the only superpower in the world, and the situation will only worsen if the United States sits on the sidelines of many things. If the United States directly intervenes, it will be difficult to extricate itself and pay a heavy price.
On January 29, 2015, Henry Kissinger testified before the U.S. Senate: "Not since the end of World War II has the United States faced a crisis of such diversity."
In the past, geopolitics looked very far away. Now, geopolitical risks may still appear in distant places, but they can spread to us as quickly as infectious diseases.
We need to build a new culture
In search of a response to accelerated times of change, Thomas Friedman returned to his home state of Minnesota several times. He grew up in St. Louis Park, a small town on the outskirts of Apolis, Minnesota. Despite the unpredictable world outside, St. Louis Park Town's government, schools, hospitals, and even teams are still functioning well, with people working together, working together, and supporting each other. "Let's go wild," in Minnesota, Friedman discovered the social values necessary to respond to accelerated social change.
As the political scientist Francis Fukuyama put it, "social capital" can lead to more trust, and this trust is the key to the success and prosperity of a country and a society. If trust prevails, groups and societies can spontaneously cooperate and adapt quickly, but if people lack trust, more conflicts and conflicts will inevitably be brought about. Ultimately, these may have to be resolved through coercion and violence. question.
When Friedman asked U.S. Surgeon General Mersey what was the worst disease in America today, Mersey said without hesitation: "It's not cancer, it's not heart disease, it's loneliness. So many people feel unprecedented Loneliness is the biggest disease we live with today.” We are the most technologically connected generation in human history, yet more people feel more isolated than ever.
Is the human species about to disappear?
Business management consultant Warren Bynes tells a joke. He said that there will be only one person and one dog in the factory of the future. People want to feed dogs, and dogs want to watch people and keep them from touching machines. One day, robots will replace people.
Simply put, there may be two paths in the future. The first path is that robots completely replace people. Robots not only learn human thinking patterns, but they do it better than humans. Robots have also learned human emotions and are more rational than humans. Robots have self-awareness and will no longer obey human commands. This is not impossible. When it comes down to its origin, human thinking and emotion are nothing more than physical and chemical reactions, but we know very little about their principles.
The second path is the integration of humans and robots. Mobile phones make us "clairvoyant" and "sunwind ear", able to communicate with others in real time and without geographical restrictions. Big data can facilitate us to learn and communicate better. Humans use various artificial organs. In the future, people are likely to use more technology to improve our memory, prolong our lifespan, and regulate our emotions. Bad memory? Just attach an external USB drive. Grumpy? Take a pill and change it. Want to experience an Antarctic adventure? You can buy a personal memory from someone else. Can't understand Javanese? The machine translates directly for you.
The human species will be completely changed. Life and work will be very different from the past, and even human survival will encounter challenges.
If you don't become a "new human", you will be eliminated
From an individual point of view, we should recognize the situation and improve our learning ability in order to remain invincible in the era of accelerated change. If you're expecting the same skills you've been used to, finding a decent job and working until retirement, you're making a big mistake. The education system of the school is far behind the changes of the times. The knowledge you learn in school may become outdated before you get out of the school gate. The future era belongs to lifelong learners and cross-border masters, and future leadership positions are for those "new human beings" who can integrate global teams, connect technology and humanities, and have vision, insight and charisma.
In this age of accelerating change, it's not about rushing every day, it's about pausing on the move. Slow down, relax, reflect on the road you have traveled, try to understand this era from a higher and broader perspective, keep an open mind, strive to embrace innovation, and tolerate the inevitable failures in the innovation process. "The haste is not enough". Slow is fast. Here's Thomas Friedman's advice for each of us in Thank You for Being Late.
He Fan/Text
Reprinted from: http://www.morningpost.com.cn/2017/1217/1678580.shtml