Guo Runhua, Top Financial Research Institute: 2019 will usher in the era of a truly mature block chain blowout




On April 20th, the "Wechain2018 Blockchain Industry Summit" co-hosted by the IGS Organizing Committee and Top Finance and Economics was grandly opened at the Western China International Expo City, Tianfu New District, Chengdu. Industry leaders and top celebrities from the global blockchain and game fields Gathered together, shared successful cases and experiences around blockchain and its practical application in the game field, and launched a wonderful collision of ideas!


In the afternoon, Guo Runhua, Dean of Top Financial Research Institute, gave a wonderful speech on the topic of "Blockchain Industry Research Report". The following is the content of the speech, which is also shared with you here.


Blockchain - Trust the Machine

 

Many friends do not have a very deep understanding of the blockchain. We may go to the Internet to search for knowledge about the blockchain, but we may see terms like consensus mechanism, and then smart contracts based on computer science, cryptography Vocabulary in science and economics, everyone may not understand the technology of blockchain, what role it plays in our daily life, or its impact on society.





In fact, it is very simple. It is described by combining these technologies and keywords. It is like the protocol of our Internet. We often use the Internet but do not know what the TCP protocol is. In fact, its principle is the same as that of blockchain technology. . Blockchain can be called the third industrial revolution, which is an upgrade of our original technology.






In 2015, it was mentioned in the Economist magazine that blockchain can be used as a trust machine to solve trust-based problems in our life and social system. For example, in our daily life, we may need to talk about our traditional industries, financial systems, and Internet industries. When it builds a trust, we need to invest a lot of costs including data level, manpower, and material resources. But based on the blockchain, it is actually very simple, because of the immutable characteristics, the services of third-party intermediaries can be removed. At the same time, it has many applications in traditional industries, such as the application in traceability, based on all the production processes, procedures, and raw materials on the chain, it allows consumers to intuitively see the product process.


Until 2015, we called it Blockchain 1.0, represented by Bitcoin. Blockchain 2.0 is Ethereum, and the era of blockchain 3.0 is the era of blockchain connecting everything, and all industries will be connected by blockchain.


State of the Blockchain Industry

 




Here is an introduction to the current status of the blockchain industry in the first quarter of 2018. The G20 summit in the first quarter of 2018 has just passed. We can see that many countries around the world have a relatively clear attitude towards blockchain supervision - like the United States, Canada, Russia, and other regions except China tend to be more open to these.


In addition to China, only a few of the 251 countries in the world are banned. This also reflects a problem from the side . The impact of cryptocurrencies on the global monetary system is actually not that great. possible.





When it comes to the blockchain industry, if we judge the popularity of an industry, we basically judge from the movement of capital. For example, in the first quarter of 2018, ICO reached 5.96 billion US dollars. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2017, this year’s Q1 increased by more than 2 times compared with the fourth quarter of 2017.


On a global scale, the area of ​​blockchain ICO is relatively concentrated, mainly born in the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, Switzerland, Singapore, Australia, and Estonia. Judging from the data in the first quarter of 2018, there is a project that holds up more than 30% of the share. Everyone knows that this software is a social software Telegram developed by a Russian team. In the first quarter of this year, it raised 1.7 billion US dollars. funds.





It is also worth mentioning that the proportion of Q1 financing, the communication sector is pulled to 3.6%. In 2017, finance ranked first. We can also see that this area has not changed so much from 2017. Basically, it is still mainly in the main fields of communication, finance, transaction investment, games, advertising, and payment. .





Let’s take a look at the domestic data, because the domestic ICO is prohibited (suspected of illegal fundraising), but the equity financing market is still very hot. In 2018, the average total amount of equity financing in Q1 reached 32.79 million yuan, from From these data, it can also be seen that Chinese capital pays great attention to and invests in blockchain projects, and it is also increasing year by year.





In addition, we need to see some local attributes and industry attributes of China's blockchain integration projects. We can see that the incubation places of blockchain in China are still concentrated in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen .


Beijing is the main incubation place for blockchain, with 114 incubations, and the amount of integration has reached 3.161 billion. Beijing is far ahead of other cities. Moreover, the main projects that Beijing is investing in are classified in the versions of mining machines and virtual currencies. The more prominent ones have heard of Bitmain, OK, Huobi, etc. They are all companies that have done very well.


The second is Shanghai, which is mainly based on smart contracts, while in Shenzhen it is based on the sales of mining machines.


Equity investment in blockchain shows a different performance from abroad. In foreign countries, everyone just saw that there will be more diversity. In my country, it basically focuses on technology, application, and investment in assets, wallets, and media. will be more concentrated.

 




What we see here is the proportion of blockchain project data that we have counted since 2016. The financial sector ranks first, with 12.39% of the projects being financial-related blockchain projects, with a very high degree of integration. .


In second place are commerce, retail, payment, wallet, digital assets, accounting for between 6% and 8%.


Next is infrastructure, games, etc. Its data is actually an outbreak that has just happened in May 2017 until now, so the current data is relatively small, and the proportion of each field is 3%-5 %about.


Finally, like real estate public utilities, its proportion is very low, and the number of these projects together accounts for less than 12%.


On the right are some of the tracks that we focus on after our research on blockchain technology and industry. For us, the criterion is the application of the combination of blockchain technology and this industry, including the speed of landing. Yes, in the first echelon, we can see finance, games, charity, payment, wallet, underlying technology, etc. These fields are all familiar to us, and these industries have a very high degree of fit with the blockchain. In addition, we have consulted some highly technical personnel in the application area, and the time for these industries in the first echelon to land on the blockchain can be shortened to about 3 months.


Then in the second echelon, there may be some biases in the combination of blockchains, which is the last mile. For example, traceability solves some problems solved by mid-to-high-end brands. For low-end brands or those that have not formed a brand There is no guarantee for a business. Like supply chain finance, because domestic supply chain finance is also a very complex environment, it does not mean that the blockchain can be used for purification.


The third echelon is the one that is more inconsistent with the combination of blockchain projects. For example, the intellectual property that everyone sees, the intellectual property can be done, but in fact, it cannot solve too many problems, because the old system There is no problem, and how to protect rights and pursue accountability remains to be studied.


The fourth echelon are projects that are less exposed to, and these are relatively weakened areas.





At the giant level, it can be seen that many are running into the market, including the recent Huawei has also released a white paper. Whether it is BAT, NetEase and JD.com have also entered the blockchain, and even in 2015, some alliances have been formed in China. A large part of these giants focus on finance, hardware, supply, and data, and they have not expanded in other areas. This is also an opportunity for us to launch new projects in the future.


The future of blockchain





First of all, let’s talk about the high mortality rate of blockchain projects that everyone sees online. The projects funded in 2017 will basically die by 2018. The tide of death will come, but it is not as pessimistic and terrifying as imagined, because the ICO projects in 2017, in fact, their qualifications, although there are also pyramid schemes and fake projects, but the money raised by the real projects There are a lot of them. That kind of money can support projects that are really working and can help them complete a few years of planning, but those fake projects will definitely be eliminated by the industry.


In 2018 this year, more blockchain projects will be born, rushing to various industries, and the amount of financing and the number of projects will be doubled.


As the traditional giants will lead the blockchain technology to maturity, the underlying technology will be improved in 2018, and 2019 will usher in the era of a truly mature blockchain blowout.


The author of this article: Top Financial Research Institute, you can add WeChat (xinmeikeji3) to communicate.

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