(The picture comes from the Internet)
Text|Chen Xiaojiang
Source | Mantis Finance (ID: TanglangFin)
Not long ago, the emergence of a shared motorcycle cemetery tells us that from a single user perspective, it may not be able to support the ceiling of shared motorcycles.
On January 29, at the Geek Park IF Conference, Zhai Guanglong, founder and CEO of Songguo Travel, mentioned in his speech that "in the transportation industry, "user-only theory" is a kind of stimulant, which is very cool at first, but also addictive. , But then it will destroy the entire body. Whether shared bicycles or shared motorcycles, first of all, you must find your own position in the mature transportation system. This is an industrial logic", which has caused heated discussions in the industry.
In fact, since the official implementation of the "new national standard" for electric vehicles promulgated in 2019, local regulations have gradually been liberalized. From shared bicycles to shared motorcycles, two-wheel travel has entered a new era of "shotgun for gun". 2020 will be the first year of the "sharing motorcycle" by the industry.
In the past year, two rounds of travel companies have stepped up, and the industry market has greatly increased.
According to iiMedia Consulting's data, the number of shared motorcycles in China in 2019 has exceeded 1 million. In the next five years, it will usher in explosive growth. It is estimated that by 2025, the number of shared motorcycles will reach 8 million, the compound growth rate will reach 41.4%, and the industry revenue will also increase to 20 billion yuan.
It seems that the "spring" of shared motorcycles has arrived, but the story is far from simple. Internet companies that are accustomed to user thinking and traffic thinking, hope that through large-scale investment in cities, use subsidy wars to trap users and seize the market plan may fail. The reason is that the positioning of shared motorcycles has not been accurately identified-that is, where is the market in which shared motorcycles are most needed?
The first to bear the brunt is that first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen clearly "do not develop e-bike rental", narrowing the road for shared motorcycles to penetrate into first-tier cities.
In addition, after the first-tier cities were blocked, many companies bet on the second- and third-tier cities to carry out large-scale and disorderly investment, which caused problems in urban safety, environment and management, which successively led to stricter supervision of second- and third-tier cities such as Changsha and Hangzhou, and gradually increased sharing The barriers to entry for motorcycles also hinder the development of shared motorcycles in second- and third-tier cities.
It can be seen that from the perspective of users and traffic, first-, second- and third-tier cities seem to be the first choice for shared motorcycle companies. But the reality is that shared motorcycles are making a leap from Beijing to Shanghai and Guangzhou, heading straight to the sinking market.
1. Sharing motorcycles begins with "sinking" and will also prosper from "sinking"
The development of shared motorcycles began in the sinking market, and with the increase of giant companies, it began to explode in second and third-tier cities, but soon the pause button was pressed, and it may eventually return to the sinking market.
If the introduction of the "new national standard" for electric vehicles is the boundary, it can be divided into two major stages.
In the previous stage, Haro took the lead and was the first to launch motorcycles among the Big Three in two-wheel travel. As early as 2017, Haro began to test hydro-electric bicycles, mainly in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities. By April 2020, Haro Travel CEO Yang Lei announced that Haro's motorcycle market share will reach 70%. At that time, Meituan and Didi were still in a relatively conservative position on the shared motorcycle track.
In 2017, Zhai Guanglong, the founder and CEO of Songguo Travel, began to set his sights on the fifth- and sixth-tier county-level markets. By 2019, the goal of Songuo Travel has become a "big county market"-including shared motorcycles (Songuo motorcycles) and shared new energy vehicles (Songuo Rent-a-Car). Considering that there are at least 600 million people in the county market and the relative lack of traffic, there is a stronger demand for shared motorcycles, which gives Songguo a huge business imagination.
Data shows that as of the end of November 2020, Songguo motorcycles have landed in 24 provinces, nearly 1,000 counties and county-level cities in China, with nearly 50 million users and more than 3 million orders per day. It took three years to capture half of China's county seat, and the growth rate was amazing. According to the statistics of average daily service users, Songguo Travel is an absolute leader in the county market, becoming another small giant in the sinking market after Pinduoduo and Kuaishou.
In April 2019, the "E-Bike Safety Technical Specification", known as the "new national standard" for electric bicycles, was formally implemented. The electric bicycles in the standard were classified as non-motor vehicles. Driving licenses were not required on the road, allowing the development of shared electric bicycles to enter Go to the second stage.
Under the new national standard, compared with traditional motorcycles, motorcycles that meet the sharing requirements have proposed new standards from the government, operation and maintenance, business, and users. For example, it can fully meet the management needs of government supervision and management departments, facilitate the operation and maintenance requirements of dispatch and maintenance, have stronger three-proof performance, and higher safety and comfort.
From a product perspective, motorcycles that meet the sharing needs are a "new species."
Taking Songguo motorcycles as an example, intelligent IoT technologies such as big data IoT, GPS real-time positioning, smart APP battery replacement operations, battery ENS management system, and fault self-checking provide support for remote control and safety management. Full battery life of 70 kilometers, IP67 waterproof battery, dual anti-theft, anti-vandalism and other three-proof performance, as well as rock-solid body materials and design are all for this.
From a market perspective, capital and travel giants have begun to attach importance to shared motorcycles.
In July 2019, Haro Travel independent of its electric vehicle platform division and upgraded it to a first-level department parallel to Haro Bikes, which is mainly responsible for the motorcycle business. In the same year, Didi announced the merger of shared motorcycles and shared bicycles to form a two-wheel business unit. Meituan Wang Xing stated that he would "strive to become a leader in this industry."
Songguo is a self-built smart manufacturing plant for electric bicycles, becoming the first in the industry to introduce automation equipment and put forward the concept of benchmarking the automobile industry to share electric bicycles.
Through a highly automated, informatized and systematic 4G factory, Songguo Smart Factory has raised the level of production automation of traditional two-wheelers from 0 to 50%. It also increased R&D investment, and jointly launched an intelligent "traffic laboratory" focusing on Internet of Things technology and artificial intelligence technology with the Institute of Advanced Research of the University of Science and Technology of China, as well as an "intelligent manufacturing experiment" involving the research and development of new body materials, batteries, and vehicle structures.
By 2020, Haro, Meituan and Qingju will fight each other, making the competition for shared motorcycles intensified.
Some media previously reported that in the first half of 2020, Meituan placed orders for up to one million electric vehicle companies such as Fujitec and Xinri. According to the financial report, Meituan launched nearly 300,000 motorcycles in Q2 of 2020. As of October 2020, Haro motorcycles have entered more than 400 cities. Qingju bicycles and motorcycles also cover more than 150 cities.
The battle for the Changsha market is a microcosm of this war. According to the "Changsha Evening News" report, at the end of 2019, there were less than 100,000 shared motorcycles in Changsha. By 2020, the number of shared motorcycles will exceed 460,000, and the number of brands will change from 4 to 13.
However, the good times did not last long. On November 23, 2020, the relevant departments of Changsha City tightened the supervision, about 400,000 unlicensed shared motorcycles were "recovered", related companies were interviewed, and shared motorcycle companies were pressed for the pause button for their crazy expansion in Changsha. It also means that the hundreds of thousands of motorcycles "recycled" in Changsha have to "see another way out."
The tightening of supervision in Changsha is an indicator of the new round of tightening of supervision on shared motorcycles in second and third tier cities. Prior to this, shared motorcycles in Hangzhou, Tianjin, Wuhan and other cities were also required to be rectified and retired. In July 2019, mango motorcycles were temporarily detained by relevant departments on the first day they went online in Wuhan. In the second half of 2020, Foshan, Zhongshan, Hefei, Datong, Dongguan, Jiangmen and other places have also carried out the rectification and removal of shared motorcycles.
At the same time, the policy of "not developing shared motorcycles" in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen remains clear. On December 15, 2020, relevant departments in Beijing conducted interviews with many shared electric vehicle companies operating in Beijing, such as walking and sharing, mango motorcycles, and Mibu Travel, and required rectification within a time limit. Insiders pointed out that this is a continuation of Beijing’s previous policy of “not developing electric bike rentals”, and it may become more stringent.
It can be seen that although the high population density and high-frequency travel demand in first- and second-tier cities can bring higher input-output ratios to shared motorcycles. However, due to the large-scale deployment of shared motorcycles, the disorderly parking and the occupation of sidewalks have disrupted the normal traffic order, occupied a large amount of municipal public resources, affected the appearance of the city, and brought potential safety problems. First- and second-tier cities are bound to face stricter scale and operational control, which is unfavorable for development.
In contrast, in areas where transportation resources are relatively scarce, the third, fourth, and fifth line and below, shared motorcycles are undoubtedly a better supplement to public transportation, and they will also receive better policy support and provide better development soil. "Mantis Finance" believes that shared motorcycles that want to go "up" will turn to the sinking market after encountering obstacles.
According to data from iiMedia Consulting, among the urban distribution of shared motorcycle users in 2020, 36.2% of shared motorcycles are distributed in third-tier cities, and 34.6% are distributed in fourth-tier cities and rural areas. The share of motorcycle users in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities is 27.4% and 1.8% respectively.
Therefore, shared motorcycles will "leap" north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and be deployed in more sinking cities/counties and towns of third, fourth, fifth tier and below, which may be more in line with the interests of users, government supervision, and platform operations. An option. "Mantis Finance" believes that from the current stage, shared motorcycles that started in the "sinking market" will also flourish in the "sinking market."
Second, will it be a good business to turn to shared motorcycles in the sinking market?
Whether you like it or not, the “unwelcome” in first-tier cities and the rising barriers in second- and third-tier cities have made the sinking market the main front for the development of shared motorcycles. So, will it be a good business to turn to shared motorcycles in the sinking market? The answer is undoubtedly yes.
First of all, compared with shared bicycles, shared motorcycles are obviously a heavier business. Both vehicle costs and operation and maintenance costs are relatively higher.
According to research data from Shenwan Hongyuan, the manufacturing cost of a shared motorcycle is about 2,000-2,500 yuan, and the daily operation and maintenance cost of a single bike is about 3 yuan. In contrast, the two expenditures for shared bicycles are 700-1100 yuan and 0.5-1 yuan respectively. On the whole, if each shared motorcycle and shared bicycle wants to maintain a breakeven, their daily income is about 4-5 yuan and 1-2 yuan, respectively.
However, due to the higher turnover rate and customer unit price, shared motorcycles are actually easier to achieve profitability than shared bicycles.
The "Leopard Change" has previously reported on this. According to industry insiders, the riding time of a motorcycle is generally about 15 minutes, and the unit price is about 2 yuan. Taking a motorcycle with a turnover rate of 6 times as an example, a single-day profit is 12 yuan. From the perspective of the rate of overturning of shared bicycles and the half of the customer unit price, its single-day profit is about 3 yuan, which is a four-fold difference in profitability between the two.
Therefore, "Mantis Finance" believes that in terms of overall cost and profitability, the profitability and space of shared motorcycles are stronger than that of shared bicycles. This is also an important reason why travel giants are making efforts to share motorcycles. Wang Xing emphasized the "high frequency and high cash flow" characteristics of motorcycles in Meituan's 2020 Q2 earnings conference call. Haro, who is the first to take the lead in sharing motorcycles, is reported to have realized profits through motorcycles for a long time, and the amount of money is quite large.
Second, sharing motorcycles is a business that emphasizes government needs. This is the key to restricting the development of many shared motorcycle platforms. Unlike many first- and second-tier cities that do not welcome shared motorcycles, many county-level cities and users welcome “shared motorcycles” to solve travel problems. For example, in Yanggu County, Liaocheng City, Shandong Province, Songguo shared electric bicycles, a livelihood project introduced by the Yanggu County government, and the first shared electric bicycle company to settle in the local area.
At present, the main business of Songguo travel barriers is also concentrated in the county seat, and Zhai Guanglong said that Songguo will not take the route of "rural surrounding the city", but will be positioned in the county seat.
The logic behind it is easy to understand. According to Zhai Guanglong, "Songuo motorcycles have a unified national starting price of 2 yuan. Users in first-tier cities find it expensive, but people in county towns find it cheap." Because there is a lot of traffic in first-tier cities, for example, buses in Beijing start at only 40 cents, but in most counties, there are not many buses, and taxis start at at least 5 yuan, which is much more expensive than Songguo motorcycles. Therefore, Zhai Guanglong believes that "sharing motorcycles is the best way to travel in the county."
In addition, riding safety is the most concerned issue of many governments. For example, multi-person riding is very unsafe. Many shared motorcycles use large cushions, which are enough for multiple people. Although they are comfortable to sit on, they are prone to accidents and increase the difficulty of government supervision.
According to Zhai Guanglong, Songguo motorcycles have adopted small cushions since the first model. Although it is not as comfortable as a large cushion, it is safer and better able to meet government regulatory requirements. Songguo has also successfully developed a multi-person cycling detection and intervention system, and achieved large-scale applications, becoming the industry's first and is also applying for patents.
Finally, compared with the high population density of first- and second-tier cities, in third-, fourth-, and fifth-tier cities and counties below, the utilization rate of shared motorcycles may decrease, and operating costs may also increase. However, the cost of operation and maintenance personnel is lower and the competition (price war) is weaker. After the two are offset, it is still a good business.
We must know that in my country, there are more than 2,700 counties and more than 260 prefecture-level cities, and the public transportation system in many areas needs to be improved. The user's demand for 3-10 kilometers is stronger than that of first- and second-tier cities. Shared motorcycles, which have a lower unit price than taxi passengers, can fit this demand, and the sinking market is destined to be a long track.
At the same time, the development of shared electric bicycles can also provide local residents with emerging positions such as electric bicycle replacement and maintenance, and solve some of the employment problems. Experts predict that with the development of the motorcycle industry, it is estimated that more than 600,000 jobs related to motorcycle operation and maintenance will be created.
More importantly, in addition to its own profit margin is better than that of shared bicycles, the exchange business derived from shared motorcycles has evolved into a traffic entry for the sinking market, which is also an important reason for many companies to exert their efforts.
As we all know, one of the most important reasons for the giants to share bicycles is to seize the traffic entrance. Typical Ru Meituan spends heavily on acquiring Mobike. In 2020, many Internet giants such as Didi, Meituan, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo have increased their community group purchases, and they also use community group purchases to grab the sinking market traffic entrance.
In contrast, the shared motorcycle business in the sinking market also has the characteristics of high frequency and rigid demand, and it can directly reach consumers without going through the "group leader", which can not only bring traffic and users, but also compete in the giants. The fierce payment track brings gains. In the five major new business styles of the life service industry in 2021 released by Meituan a few days ago, shared motorcycles are only ranked after community group purchases, which is enough to prove it.
3. Conclusion
In general, after the first- and second-tier cities have suffered setbacks, the shared motorcycles that have turned to the sinking market are still a good business, but relevant companies must also find their own core competitiveness.
In a public speech on January 29, Zhai Guanglong, founder and CEO of Songguo Travel, mentioned that the reason why Songguo makes shared motorcycles is that the transportation industry is one of the most commercially valuable industries in the next ten years, and the ceiling is high enough. . The second is to start a business in the transportation field. It requires a very comprehensive understanding and insight into the transportation industry. It is more than just understanding what users think. The fate of shared bicycles proves that the traffic logic that Internet companies are good at does not work in the transportation industry. Insight is the first core competitiveness.
Zhai Guanglong said that unlike many companies that do shared motorcycles and online ride-hailing, which position themselves as "Internet travel", Songguo defines itself as a "transportation technology company." The former's "travel" is based on the user's perspective and pays more attention to user-driven. The latter's "transportation" is based on an industry perspective, not only paying attention to user needs, but also industry needs and government needs.
From the perspective of Songguo’s series of layouts, whether it is the All-in county market, or self-built smart factories, or even small cushions, research and development of multi-person riding and intervention systems, it can be seen that Songuo motorcycles are obviously Regarding it as a transportation industry, while meeting the needs of users, it has also made many preparations around the improvement of industry efficiency, government needs and supervision, and user safety guarantees. This is also its ability to grow rapidly and grow into the next The key to Shen's small giant has also set a model for the development of shared motorcycle companies.
*The pictures in this article are from the Internet
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