Article Directory
Author: Dietrich Deurne, a psychology professor at the University of Bamberg, Germany, who won the 1986 year, Germany's highest scientific award Leibniz Prize.
Excerpts from the original text:
1. When faced with ambiguous goals, everyone has no way to know exactly what these expectations should look like, let alone to achieve such goals.
2. Goal degradation is a manifestation of the need for safety and lack of confidence in one's own ability. In the process of working towards the goal, the real goal is forgotten, but the original goal is replaced by a temporary goal.
3. The world is changing, and we must make targeted decisions in different external environments, rather than adopting abstract strategies to remove conditions for success in specific situations.
4. If we don't know anything about a thing, we can form a simple picture and work on this basis. However, once we collect some information, we will fall into panic.
5. In a very complex and rapidly changing situation, the most reasonable strategy is to plan only a rough outline and delegate as much decision-making power as possible to lower-level personnel.
1. Improper goal setting leads to failure
1. Vague goals
Vague goals are goals that lack measurement standards, and there is no way to determine whether they can be achieved.
2. Implicit goals
This kind of goal is hidden, so it is not noticed in the early stages of the planning process
. It will only appear when we pursue other goals, especially those that are opposed to these implicit goals.
3. Goal degradation
Goal degradation is a manifestation of the need for safety and lack of confidence in one's own ability.
In the process of working towards the goal, the real goal is forgotten, and the temporary goal is allowed to replace the original goal.
2. Improper information handling leads to failure
1. Ignore systemicity
The system is a network composed of many variables that are in a causal relationship with each other.
If systemicity is ignored, no matter how good the motivation is, it can lead to failure.
To master the knowledge of the system structure, it can be obtained by analogy and observing the changes of variables over time.
2. Remove conditional abstraction
The so-called de-conditioning abstraction refers to the elimination of the conditions on which things develop, which results in the final error.
Therefore , targeted decisions must be made in different external environments.
3. Excessive information
If we don’t know anything about a thing, we can form a simple picture and work on this basis.
However, once we collect some information, we will fall into panic.
To solve this problem, either adopt a method of rash action based on very little information, or adopt a method of collecting too much information.
Simply put, you can deliberately refuse to accept information and make plans and operating strategies based on your own heart.
3. Improper planning results in failure
1. Insufficient planning
Under normal circumstances, we can only plan within a limited range with little knowledge. There is no way to consider various possibilities, and it is impossible to conduct a thorough study.
To solve the planning problem, a common focusing process is called "hill climbing".
The essence of this approach is that only those actions that are promising to move forward are considered.
Another way to limit the problem sector is to find "intermediate goals", that is, to set small goals before the ultimate goal.
2. The problem of over-planning
Most of this happens after we discover the problem, try our best to foresee all the possibilities, and estimate every conceivable accident.
The broader our knowledge, the more the planning process will draw our attention to countless possible outcomes.
Therefore, planning is like collecting information, which increases our insecurities.
To solve this kind of problem, you can use mathematical methods,
use probability theory and operations research methods to carry out scientific calculations, master high-probability events, and propose relatively detailed plans, and try to stay away from too cumbersome and detailed plans.