During today's Asian session, spot gold gapped and opened higher and rose sharply. Currently trading at 1932 US dollars per ounce. Bitcoin soared by over 14% over the weekend, and market risk aversion has increased. Investors are deeply disturbed by the spread of the epidemic, the stranding of the $2,000 check bill, the upcoming Georgia senator election, and the non-agricultural employment data this week. However, the progress of vaccines and the strength of the stock market have put a certain amount of pressure on gold prices. In the short term, the price of gold has broken through the downward trend line since the August high and is expected to rise further.
The U.S. dollar index refreshed to a new low of 89.31 since mid-April 2018, and continues to operate below 90. The market is expected to welcome more easing policies in 2021; there is a further downside risk in the market outlook. In addition to the large-scale release of US fiscal and monetary policies, the short side once again proposed the "double deficit" reason for shorting the US dollar-the US budget deficit and trade deficit have soared. Another big background is that the actual yield on US debt is negative. In addition, the rise in the stock market keeps market risk sentiment high while risk aversion is not high, and the dollar has a larger bearish factor.
In terms of crude oil, the drop in the US dollar index made crude oil rise by more than 1% on Monday. However, market sentiment is expected to be more cautious before the OPEC+ conference in the day; the market generally expects OPEC+ to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day; in addition, there are news reports on the weekend that Pfizer will be inoculated After the vaccine, about 240 Israelis were infected with the new crown. The optimism brought by the previous vaccine has cooled; the market's expectations for the US economic data this week are also pessimistic, and investors need to be alert to the risk of short-term correction of oil prices.
This week, we will pay attention to the Georgia Senate election on January 5, the joint meeting of Congress on January 6, and the December ADP employment data on the same day, and the first unemployment data will be ushered in on January 7, and on January 8. The monthly non-agricultural report will be released. The $2,000 relief check bill was stranded. On January 1, local time, the Senate again blocked a vote on the $2,000 relief check bill. Trump commented that this was unfair and unwise. On January 3, local time, the 117th Congress of the United States was formally sworn in. This bill has the unanimous support of Trump and the House of Representatives, but McConnell, a Republican, is trying his best to block the passage of the bill. As the time for the new president to take office approaching, the fate of this bill will become confusing. The market was once blocked from voting on the bill, and investors will continue to pay attention to its progress in the next few days. Concerned about the January 5th Georgia Senate Election Pelosi was re-elected as Speaker of the US House of Representatives on Sunday with 216-209. As the new Congress takes office in the New Year, American politics is still full of uncertainty, and the control of the Senate is still undecided. The Republican Party is also making final efforts for the final result of the upcoming US presidential election. Investors focused on the Georgia State Senate runoff on Tuesday (January 5), the outcome of which will determine the ownership of control of the Senate and the possible fate of President-elect Biden's legislative agenda. If the Democrats win the second round of the Georgian Senate elections on Tuesday (January 5), it will enable the Biden administration to effectively control both houses of the Senate and the House of Representatives and be able to pass anything in the ongoing struggle to recover the US economy. Stimulus plan.