According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday (January 18) morning, after preliminary calculations, China's GDP for the whole year of 2020 will reach 101,5986 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3% over the previous year at comparable prices. This makes China the only major economy in the world that did not shrink last year.
In quarterly terms, the first quarter was down 6.8% year-on-year, the second quarter was up 3.2%, the third quarter was up 4.9%, and the fourth quarter was up 6.5%. In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry was 7775.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.0% over the previous year; the added value of the secondary industry was 3,84255 billion yuan, an increase of 2.6%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 5,539.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1%.
Manufacturing repair
Data show that China's national industrial added value above designated size in 2020 will increase by 2.8% over the previous year. In the fourth quarter, the value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.1% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points faster than the third quarter. In December, the added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.3% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points faster than the previous month, and 1.10% month-on-month.
Strong export growth
Statistics show that China's total imports and exports of goods for 2020 is 32155.7 billion yuan, an increase of 1.9% over the previous year. Among them, exports amounted to 17.9326 billion yuan, an increase of 4.0%; imports amounted to 14,233.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.7%. The trade balance was 3709.6 billion yuan in surplus.
Affected by the epidemic, Chinese exports suffered a sharp setback at the beginning of the year. However, with the epidemic under control, China's economy reopened, and the worsening of overseas epidemics led to lockdowns and work stoppages. The increase in external demand pushed China's exports to continue to rise. As the vaccination work begins, China's "substitution effect" on the manufacturing industries of other economies may weaken, and the growth rate of exports in 2021 may be narrowed, and the growth of domestic demand will further increase imports.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the epidemic is still spreading in the world this year. Countries around the world still have a relatively large demand for anti-epidemic products and production and daily necessities. Based on domestic demand, we must adapt to international demand, expand external demand, and expect imports and exports. It is expected to continue the current situation.
Consumption gradually recovered
Statistics show that the total retail sales of consumer goods in China in 2020 will be 391981 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.9% from the previous year and the first contraction since 1968. In terms of consumption type, catering revenue was 3952.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.6%; retail sales of goods were 3,545.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.3%.
In the past year, the total retail sales of consumer goods remained negative growth throughout the year, but it has turned positive in the third and fourth quarters, and the growth in the fourth quarter reached 4.6%, close to the normal level of previous years.
The growth rate of total social consumer retail sales fluctuated slightly in December, and it was indeed affected by the spread of epidemics in several places.
China’s total retail sales of consumer goods in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, an increase of 3.7% over the third quarter. In December, it increased by 4.6% year-on-year and 1.24% month-on-month.
In the whole year, the national online retail sales reached 11,760.1 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9% over the previous year. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods was 975.9 billion yuan, an increase of 14.8%, accounting for 24.9% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from the previous year.
Data show that China's national industrial added value above designated size in 2020 will increase by 2.8% over the previous year. In the fourth quarter, the value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.1% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points faster than the third quarter. In December, the added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.3% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points faster than the previous month, and 1.10% month-on-month.
Monetary policy enters a wait-and-see period
As the economy recovers, there are more and more discussions in the market about the central bank's withdrawal of easing policies.
The governor of the People's Bank of China said in June last year that the financial support policy during the epidemic response period is phased. It is necessary to pay attention to the sequelae of the policy, the total amount should be moderate, and the timely withdrawal of policy tools should be considered in advance. The former Minister of Finance of China Lou Jiwei also pointed out in November that it is time to study the orderly withdrawal of loose monetary policy.
The Central Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan mid-term loan facility (MLF) operation last Friday, which is slightly smaller than the total maturity of MLF and TMLF this month.
The Central Bank of China stated at the press conference of the State Council Information Office last Friday that this year's prudent monetary policy will be more flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate, and will continue to maintain the necessary support for economic recovery, and support sustained economic recovery and high quality with moderate currency growth. development of.
"In 2021, the monetary policy should be stable and not make a sharp turn. A prudent monetary policy should be flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate, grasp the timeliness and maintain the sustainability of the normal monetary policy space."