"In the beginning, this was still a small market (ETH in 15 years). People didn’t know what to buy or sell, but the market gradually formed in this way, and even small shops were born. Someone was doing money market business. (Compound, Aave), some people do the exchange business (Uniswap). But there is a goal set at the beginning of the establishment (no one knew whether it was right or wrong at that time), that is, to build a cathedral (ETH 2.0). Frequently meet and discuss.
Time is fast, several years have passed, and the days of delivery have gradually progressed, and the veiled cathedral has never been seen by everyone. So people keep asking the people who set up the market stalls when we can enter the cathedral.
The constant persecution has brought things forward, and also brought about the disclosure of disputes and abuses. So the advocates of the church once suggested gathering in the square to answer any questions from everyone, but they did not explain how the decision was changed. (Call #52), people also pretend (or are unable to really) not care because they worry that their doubts will bring criticism from others.
People in the square talked to themselves. In a question and answer, they were looking for the possibility of being brilliant after entering the church. Most people knew that they didn’t really need a church or were uncertain. After all, compared to the small market a few years ago, We have a faster infrastructure (Rollup), we have a guard (Miner) to ensure market order, but they hope that they can have some power to change the form of this church.
So the advocates said that if you want to enter this church, the infrastructure must serve it (Rollup is the center), if you want to enter this church, the governance that everyone can participate in must be the premise (PoS), if you If you want to enter this church, the past market will be prosperous because of you (community confidence). If you want to enter this church, you have to cast a vote and first give up the current guard (Miner).
No one really expects this church, people only expect their own power to be exercised, even if it is not based on justice itself, even if the fair participation of assets brings about centralization, some people have been wary. But no one really expects this church, people only expect their power to be exercised. "
The above point of view comes from Uncle Miao who has a lot of research on Ethereum. On December 1, ETH2.0 officially launched the genesis block. Since then, it has finally ceased to lie in the white paper. After leaving the white paper, it has brought high expectations of the market for Ether and triggered a possible long-term future There is a conflict of interest.
Author|Wang Dashu
01
Misunderstood wealth effect
"Ether is breaking 600, 2.0-style pledge is equivalent to deflation. I think it is 1,000. It must be a wave." Retail retailer Chen Chen shouted in a group of less than 10 people, and the group sent a big star to respond: "Thanksgiving Callback I got in the car when I got off at 600, and it was already profitable. It’s really fragrant.”
The reflections of Chen Chen and the big stars of Biyoupai are to some extent a true portrayal of the market in the context of institutional bulls. As ETH2.0 has become a hot topic, these out-of-door Ether holders instinctively understand ETH2.0 as a piece of good news that can stimulate the price of ETH. At the same time, they have also discovered two investment opportunities. In the secondary market, adding Ether coins, one is to pledge the Ether coins in exchange for higher income.
However, the arrival of ETH2.0 is nothing new for understanding the history of Ethereum development and those experts. As early as the Ethereum white paper came out in 2013, ETH2.0, the tranquil phase, was planned. Tranquility was also the fourth phase of Ethereum's development. The goal was to transition the consensus mechanism of Ethereum from PoW to PoS.
In the past two years, the stakeholders of Ethereum have been discussing the change of this route, either in terms of technology implementation and incentive mechanism, or the impact of ETH2.0 on all stakeholders in the existing industrial chain.
In the short term, there is no conflict between ETH1.0 and ETH2.0. After all, in the economic model, new coins will not be issued after ETH2.0 goes online. In terms of technical solutions, those expansion plans based on ETH1.0 are not It has not been denied, but to a certain extent, it has been synchronized with the solution of ETH2.0 through PoW to PoS transition. Some people in the industry even interpret the current state as the Ethereum Foundation is using the "two-handed" approach to solve the problem. Long-term performance issues.
Under this interpretation, the wealth effect of ETH2.0 has been weakened, but the transition from PoW to PoS means that a wave of staking boom driven by ETH2.0 is coming.
Under the PoW mechanism, to become a miner requires a mining machine and electricity; under the PoS mechanism, to become a validator, you need to pledge at least 32 ETH to a storage contract, have hardware equipment, and a stable Internet environment. This is obviously not for ordinary investors. Too friendly.
However, this is a good business for node pledge service providers.
At present, exchanges such as Huobi and Binance, wallets such as TokenPocket, imtoken, HashQuark, InfStones, Stkr, RocketPool and other blockchain infrastructure service providers all provide ETH2.0 staking services. Although the user positioning is different, they basically belong to the center. In a centralized organization, users cannot grasp the private key of funds.
"I pledged the currency to platform A. Platform A has a problem. Is there a problem with my currency?" In the fiercely ETH2.0 pledge discussion group, member Cang Hai asked. "Don't bet, the income is too low, if you fall too hard, you will lose more than you gain." Another member Haoran responded while complaining.
Obtaining income by participating in the pledge should be the most significant "wealth effect" of ETH2.0 in the physical world. Discussions and consultants such as this are all over the various communities in the industry: basically it shows that speculators look down on low returns and ordinary investors. Asking and thinking about the scene of the institution silently approaching.
Uncle Miao told the chain catcher that whether in the end Ethereum chooses to quickly implement Rollup on the current chain or choose to make more technological breakthroughs on the new chain, this process is valuable, but for individuals, the current participation ETH2.0 staking is a matter of high risk relative to return, and needs to be treated with caution.
At present, the risks of participating in ETH2.0 pledge are roughly three points: gratuitous losses after lock-up, capital risks caused by network failures, and third-party service providers running away.
Of course, the risk is on the one hand, and there are misunderstandings on the other.
" Price rise is based on how the mainstream tells the story. If the mainstream market wants to talk about the rise, you can follow the story of pledge lock-up. Why do you say that? The core reason is that the market sentiment is suitable for long. If it is back to 2018 At the beginning of the year, it would be suitable to tell a bad story.” TP Wallet founder Pan pointed out in an interview with the chain catcher that although ETH2.0 has brought about an increase in the amount of locked positions, it cannot achieve the deflation as understood by the outside world. The subsequent derivative quality pledge program is actually increasing the circulation, and the essence is inflation.
Except for being misread as deflation, the income of ETH2.0 Staking does not constitute the wealth effect that Chen Chen understands. Calculated based on the annualized gain of 21.6% at the start of Phase 0, the revenue per 32 ETH is approximately 6.91 ETH, and based on the recent 16.9% annualized revenue, the revenue per 32 Ethereum is approximately 5.43 ETH , The income will decrease as the amount of pledge increases, so it is obviously not a good choice for investors with small capital and poor risk resistance.
02
PoS-type stories are a bit "virtual"
"The three-phase roadmap is illusory, and the new roadmap is tasteless. There is no Eth2.0-related roadmap worthy of Ethereum abandoning the current mode of operation and switching to a PoS-based system. " is Ethereum enthusiast A Jian Judgment on ETH2.0.
The misunderstood wealth effect can meet market expectations for the price of Ether in the short term, but in the long run, the price of the currency will always be affected by countless factors, so when the industry discusses ETH2.0, it is more talked about PoS mechanism with long-term value.
And this is officially the controversial part of ETH2.0. At the moment, some people think that this kind of scheme has a lot of uncertainty, the effect cannot be expected, and the risk is too great; some people think that "grabbing with two hands" is a hooliganism; some people think that abandoning PoOW to PoS brings losses and results wrong.
Under the controversy, there are not only propositions about revolution and death, but also the conflict between ETH2.0 and ETH1.0 with vested interests.
Regarding the proposition of revolution and death, Uncle Miao believes that the foundation of Ethereum is the courage to face failure. The promotion style of the entire ecological community Test in prod was created from the initial TheDao incident to various subsequent events.
Similar to Uncle Miao’s point of view, Rudy, the marketing director of InfStones, believes that if Ethereum wants to continue to develop, it must accept uncertainty. "I now fully understand why Vitalik told the "death history" of Ethereum at the Wanxiang Summit. He said that Ethereum was about to die several times, but it still survived tenaciously. If Ethereum wants to move forward To develop and become a world computer and a platform for decentralized applications. If you want to maintain the world's second largest cryptocurrency market value, and want to challenge the position of BTC, you must continue to innovate and explore new technical solutions. "He added.
From this perspective, Ethereum is revolutionizing its own destiny, but it is another understanding from the previous effect level of the PoS mechanism.
In the past, there were not a few projects that adopted POS-type consensus mechanisms. The more well-known ones are EOS with DPoS mechanism and Polkadot with NPOS. The former is the problem of node evil, the latter is very complicated and difficult to implement.
Taking EOS as an example, the DPoS mechanism adopted by it is to increase the transaction speed and the speed of creating blocks by reducing the number of validators. The validator is voted by the token holder, and the new block is created by the validator instead of the token holder. The weight of each vote is determined by the total assets of the voters. Its shortcomings are that the enthusiasm of the holders to vote is not high, and the node monopoly is high.
The risk is that there are many difficulties in dealing with bad nodes: community elections cannot prevent the emergence of some corrupt nodes in a timely and effective manner, posing security risks to the network; super nodes are easy to be destroyed: if the elected super nodes do not have strong computing power protection By itself, it is easy to be attacked by DDOS, which seriously affects network stability.
Compared with DPoS, the NPoS mechanism adopted by Polkadot has always been considered extremely secure. NPoS also refers to the nominated equity proof mechanism, which is essentially a nominator + validator mechanism, allowing the system to select verification nodes with a larger total pledge and eliminate the total pledge Lower candidates. Although it has always been highly regarded, since the Polkadot network is not yet online, it is temporarily impossible to judge.
However, both are based on the PoS mechanism that ETH2.0 intends to adopt. It can even be said that DPoS continues the drawbacks of PoS and ultimately leads to a significant reduction in the liquidity of DPoS coins. The poorer the poorer, the richer the richer.
Of course, the POS mechanism itself naturally has various problems. First, it is easy to cause voter indifference; second, it is easy to cause the bias of voting centralization, although V God attributed it to the collapse of game theory caused by public bias; finally, it is incentive dislocation, token holders and network users are two Different kinds of people. Token holders are incentivized to push up the price of the token, which may lead to erratic price growth under normal circumstances, but they are not responsible for the system.
In addition, there is a conflict between ETH2.0 and ETH1.0 with vested interests. "The PoS mechanism is absolute centralization." Zhang Cimi (pseudonym), who has studied Ethereum quite well, believes that although PoW will also cause an arms race and evolve into a game of capital, it has driven the development of an industrial chain, but POS Neither can it prove that its decentralization may also impact the cake of vested interests.
Zhang Cimi’s concerns were also mentioned by Vitalik in a recent AMA. "Even if a solution that perfectly merges ETH1.0 and ETH2.0 can be obtained in March 2021, he and his team will still have to wait until the end of next year to start, because they need to spend a lot of time persuading all parties in the community to accept the new solution. "He said.
In fact, in this competition, the real difficulty lies not in technology, but in persuading those with vested interests to abandon personal interests and balance and coordinate the interests of all parties. At present, the stakeholders with ETH1.0 as the core can be simply divided into the Ethereum Foundation, core developers, validators, miners, and various teams based on the old chain for expansion solutions, etc., to a certain extent, each group The interest demands are different, and the most difficult to balance is the group dominated by miners. "The interests of miners and mining pools are too great. How to achieve the greatest degree of consensus and peacefully upgrade 2.0 instead of creating a split through a hard fork is really a problem," said Zhang Cimi.
At present, no one knows how much advancement the Ethereum Foundation needs to complete this matter, but I believe most people do not want the upgrade of ETH2.0 to evolve into the next permanent fork. Lose more.
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