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Source | Xinzhiyuan
Latest research: Wuhan pneumonia R0 value 3.8
Recently, Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist who has been teaching at Harvard University for 15 years, posted his views on Wuhan pneumonia on Twitter, which caused quite a stir.
He wrote: "My Virgin, the R0 value of the new coronavirus (Wuhan pneumonia) turned out to be 3.8 !!! In my career, I have never actually seen such a strong coefficient. I am not exaggerating... ."
Note: The expected number of new infections caused by an infected person in a susceptible population during the infectious period is the transmission rate of the infectious disease, which some people call the basic reproduction rate (R0).
The R0 value of Wuhan pneumonia is 3.8, which comes from a recent study by Lancaster University in Lancaster, the University of Florida, and the Virus Research Center of the University of Glasgow in the UK:
The main findings of this study include:
1. We estimate that the basic number of infections (???????? 0) is significantly greater than 1. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, which indicates that 72-75% of the spread must be prevented by infection control measures.
2. We estimate that only 5.1% (95% confidence interval, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan have been confirmed , which indicates that there are a large number of infections in the community and also reflects the difficulty of finding cases of this new disease. China’s public health authorities have carried out very rapid surveillance of this new pathogen, so that it can quickly assess the rate of increase in cases in Wuhan and other regions.
3. If there is no change in control or transmission, then we expect that further epidemics will occur in other cities in China, and the infection will continue to spread to international destinations at a faster and faster rate.
4. Our model shows that travel restrictions to and from Wuhan are unlikely to effectively prevent spread across China ; as travel is effectively reduced by 99%, the scale of the epidemic outside Wuhan may only decrease by 24.9% on February 4.
In response to this research, Dr. Eric Fegeting made a series of comments:
"The basic reproduction number of the 2019-nCoV virus outbreak is higher than that of other acute coronaviruses, and the difficulty of preventing and controlling its pathogens will also be greatly increased!!!"
"It cannot be blocked by isolation alone. 99% of Wuhan's isolation will not even reduce the spread of the plague by a third in the next two weeks."
"We may be facing another out-of-control epidemic since the Spanish flu in 1918. We hope it will not repeat the mistakes of 1918, but the modern world has faster transmission channels."
Regarding the comparison between Wuhan pneumonia and SARS in 2003, Dr. Eric Fegeting said: “Although there are reports that the R0 after SARS has been contained is 0.49, WHO quoted experts as saying that the initial R0 was 2.9, then 2.0-3.5, and dropped to 0.4 after isolation. However, the symptoms of SARS are more pronounced than the Wuhan virus."
Note: The statement that "Wuhan pneumonia is eight times higher than SARS" circulated on the Internet is calculated based on the R0 0.49 after SARS isolation.
Dr. Eric Fegeting’s latest pinned tweet wrote: “Another research team estimated the spread of the coronavirus to be 2.6 (less than 3.8 initial reports). But 2.6 is still very bad-every infected person will Infects 2.6 other people. Even the author admits that it will be very difficult to control the coronavirus outbreak."
Some netizens think that Dr. Eric Fegeting is alarmist, and we hope that the situations mentioned in the research will not occur.
The virus is raging and ruthless, China's super computing power
Supercomputing, as a "national weight", can play an important role in drug screening and virus mutation prediction. Previously, Shenzhen Supercomputing deployed a drug development platform relying on the powerful computing capabilities of Sugon 6000. Relying on this scientific and technological innovation platform to assist drug design, researchers can complete target discovery, new drug screening, lead and test optimization, and pharmacology and toxicology research. jobs.
On New Year’s Eve on January 24, the epidemic came to an emergency. Professor Luo Haibin from the School of Pharmacy of Sun Yat-sen University put forward an urgent need, requiring a large amount of computing resources for drug screening and virus mutation prediction against the new coronavirus.
After receiving the task, Shenzhen Supercomputing quickly coordinated, prioritized the scheduling of computing resources for more than 400 nodes in the two partitions, and synchronized with partners to negotiate with the DCU resources of Sugon Kunshan and the GPU resources of SenseTime. Teamwork quickly formed an emergency The working group, Tianjin Supercomputing and Tencent also stated that they can immediately dispatch resources on standby at any time.
In just one hour on New Year's Eve, Shenzhen Supercomputing has coordinated and connected all computing resources, opened a high-performance computing account for Professor Luo's team at Sun Yat-sen University, and provided all computing resources for free. In a race against time and escort for life, the drug screening operation will be carried out immediately.
In addition, according to the latest news, Xu Wenbo , director of the Institute of Virology of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that the center has begun to start the research and development of a new coronavirus vaccine , and has successfully isolated the virus and is screening seed strains. In addition, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention is conducting drug screening for new coronavirus pneumonia.
Expect more and more good news to come.
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