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Author l He Jiayan
Source l He Jiayan (ID: ihejiayan)
There are many people who have been pursuing a sense of security throughout their lives. They are willing to do anything in order to gain certainty about the future.
Others are very tolerant of uncertainty. They have a deep understanding of the complexity of the world, are good at accepting uncertainty, and are accustomed to making decisions in a highly uncertain environment.
The latter kind of people are more likely to become successful politicians or entrepreneurs.
Ren Zhengfei attributed the core of Huawei's management philosophy to "gray theory." Ma Huateng also attributed Tencent's success to "Grayscale Philosophy."
The so-called "gray scale" is a state between black and white. The development of everything in the world, the characteristics of each person, and the situation of each team are not black and white, and there is a vast gray space.
Naive people use the black and white dichotomy to see the world, just as a child always distinguishes between good and bad when watching a movie.
One of the signs of maturity is to recognize and accept gray.
Because gray is the normal state of the development of everything in the world.
1
I recently wrote the "TMD Trilogy" (the stories of the founders of Toutiao, Meituan, and Didi). The three articles are all ten-thousand-word essays. They have a very complete review of their growth history. (There is a link to the article at the end of the article)
When studying the growth experiences of Zhang Yiming, Cheng Wei and Wang Xing, I found an interesting phenomenon:
All three are good at coping with uncertainty, but the growth process is different.
Zhang Yiming, the founder of Today's Toutiao, is a typical technical nerd. He is so calm and rational that he is even called a "robot" by classmates and friends. He likes things that are regular and procedural, and cannot tolerate uncertainty.
He likes the job of a programmer very much because of certainty: you enter the code, and the computer outputs the result for you. As long as there are no bugs, the results are completely controllable and predictable.
In an interview with Caijing reporter Xiaowan, Zhang Yiming once said:
"I don't like uncertainty. It has something to do with my programmer's background, because the program is certain, but in fact the CEO is the ultimate bearer of anxiety."
Therefore, Zhang Yiming used to be very painful after transforming from a programmer to a CEO. Because the CEO makes decisions amidst uncertainty every day.
Later Zhang Yiming realized: "It is a probability distribution anyway, so you can make the best decision."
It is this recognition that made Zhang Yiming complete the transformation from programmer to CEO. If it hadn't learned how to deal with uncertainty, Zhang Yiming would not be able to make today's headlines because the uncertainties in policy, law, and industry competition faced by today's headlines are extremely huge.
Zhang Yiming/Source: Baidu Encyclopedia
Cheng Wei, the founder of Didi, had a similar experience.
In the beginning, Cheng Wei especially liked to read war books. He looked at business competition in the same way he looked at war. In the face of competitors, he attacked fiercely and fought to the death.
In the early understanding of Cheng Wei, war is life and death, and there must be a clear ending.
It was only later that something was wrong. Although the two tragic battles between Didi and Kuaidi and Uber were victorious, they also left Cheng Wei exhausted and exhausted.
After experiencing painful battles, Didi merged Kuaidi and Uber. At present, Didi’s board of directors is the most luxurious and complex among Chinese companies. In particular, Ali and Tencent both occupy important seats. It is not an easy task to mediate between these two giants.
Therefore, Cheng Wei also realized that the previous idea that all battles would have a definite result was not feasible in reality. In an interview with Caijing reporter Xiaowan, Cheng Wei said:
"To be honest, I used to read a lot of war books, study the methodology of war, everything is to win, to survive. But slowly I realized that the most brilliant strategy is not to play against everyone in a dark forest, the enemy You can't finish it."
He even stopped reading books about war history, and changed to books about physics and biology. In response, he explained:
"Army and war teach you the ultimate means of winning or losing. But biological systems, physical systems, their complexity cannot be defined by humans. Today, if you can understand the laws at the bottom of it, you can relax. If you don’t understand, it’s It will collapse, and various collapses will make you very painful."
In a public speech, Cheng Wei lamented:
"Entrepreneurs are the most difficult group of people. He is like pushing a door open. The outside is pitch black. The road is not clear. You must always explore, recognize and correct at the same time. Uncertainty Yes, so you must be an optimistic person, you must be a little fearless person, because you are doing things that no one has ever walked through."
As an Alibaba salesperson with a background in administrative management, Cheng Wei's acceptance of uncertainty was higher than Zhang Yiming's at the beginning, but he has to go through tragic battles before he can understand this problem more deeply.
Cheng Wei/Source: Baidu Encyclopedia
Wang Xing, the founder of Meituan, realized this problem earlier.
His tolerance for uncertainty seems to be born with him. From the very beginning, he was fearless, constantly trying new things, and not afraid of failure.
He often quoted the phrase "Only the dead have seen the end of war", which means that only the dead know the end of war.
One of his highly praised books is "Finite and Infinite Games". The limited game has a clear ending, while the infinite game, no one loses or wins, can continue to play-this is the competition in his eyes.
For ordinary people, a game without seeing the ending may be unbearable, but Wang Xing is never tired of it.
Wang Xing's acceptance of uncertainty may be related to his family situation. At the age of one or two, Wang Xing's father became a well-known local household with 10,000 yuan, and later developed into a billionaire. When Wang Xing grew up, he never had to worry about money.
Wang Xing/Source: Baidu Encyclopedia
This superior family background gave Wang Xing confidence. Let him have no fear no matter how he fails to start a business. Because the family can support him at any time. This condition is not met by Zhang Yiming and Cheng Wei.
This gives us an enlightenment: try to create a good environment for the child to make him feel safe, and his tolerance for uncertainty in the future will be higher.
But this does not mean that the children of ordinary families can't do this.
Both Zhang Yiming and Cheng Wei's fathers are local civil servants at the grassroots level, and at best they can only be called well-off families. They used to desperately pursued certainty, but in the end, they all overcame their inner anxiety and fear and learned to dance with uncertainty.
Therefore, you can learn to accept uncertainty and overcome anxiety and insecurity.
2
Ren Zhengfei also experienced painful struggles and numerous bumping into walls before he understood this truth.
In the article "A River of Spring Water Flows East", Ren Zhengfei mentioned that he most admired Hercules and Xiang Yu when he was a child. This kind of personal heroism, which can control everything with his own power, has become the object of his study and imitation.
He didn't understand the political connotation of the saying that unity is power until he was bloodied later. He said:
"When I think of the wasted years, I think, how can it be so naive and ridiculous, and don't understand openness, compromise, and grayscale?"
When he was in his forties, Ren Zhengfei "is not not confused, but his future is full of uncertainty."
But he still plunged headlong into this uncertain torrent.
Over the past 30 years since its establishment, Huawei has repeatedly created miracles and has developed into the world's largest communications company and the second largest mobile phone company. However, Ren Zhengfei never felt that he could sit back and relax. He was always full of worries.
When Huawei was booming, he wrote "Huawei's Winter" specifically to warn everyone to prepare for the winter. When the clouds were light and windy, he made the assumption of extreme survival, and prepared for the worst in all aspects such as operating systems and chips.
Ren Zhengfei said: "We cannot accurately predict the future, but we still have to embrace the future boldly. In the face of the ebb and flow, even if the company shrinks substantially, we must not only calm down, but also continue to push the organization toward long-term value contribution. To reform."
The profound understanding of Grayscale has led Ren Zhengfei to adopt the "Grayscale Philosophy" when managing the company. In a speech entitled "Grayscale of Management", Ren Zhengfei put forward:
"(Leader's) level is the appropriate gray level."
"A clear direction is produced in chaos and stands out from gray. The direction changes with time and space, and it often becomes unclear. It is not either white or black, or either. Reasonable . Grasping the appropriate gray level is to make various factors that affect development. In a period of time harmony, this harmony process is called compromise, and the result of this harmony is called gray scale."
Ren Zhengfei/Source: Baidu Encyclopedia
Coincidentally, Ma Huateng also gave a special lecture on "Seven Dimensions of Grayscale Law".
He said:
"In Tencent's internal product development and operation process, there is a word that has been repeatedly mentioned, and that is'grayscale'."
"The Internet is an open, intermingled, and rapidly changing ecosystem. As a species in the Internet ecosystem, companies need to be like creatures in the natural world. All aspects have the characteristics of convergence, harmony and symbiosis with the ecosystem.
Observing and thinking from an ecological point of view, I summarized Tencent’s internal transformations and experience gains and losses in the past 14 years as the "grey law" for creating biological organizations. This law includes 7 dimensions, namely:
Demand, speed, flexibility, redundancy, open collaboration, innovation, and evolution. "
Ma Huateng/Source: Baidu Encyclopedia
In fact, Tencent’s product development has always followed the gray scale principle. The gray scale concept runs through the entire process from the beginning of the design to the final product launch. Grayscale testing is also an essential step for all Internet companies to develop products.
The gray under uncertainty is not only the essence of the world, but also a principle that must be followed in business operations, as well as a method of corporate management and product development.
3
The above are all about enterprises and entrepreneurs. In fact, every one of us faces uncertainty every day, and we have to survive and make decisions in the grayscale.
We have to choose liberal arts or science in high school. We must fill in our volunteers at the end of the college entrance examination. If we meet a girl we like in college, we must decide whether to chase or not. What kind of job should we choose after graduation? You have to decide whether to quit, when you quit, decide whether to change to a large company or a small company, or to start your own business...
In every decision we make, uncertainty always exists, so we feel confused and anxious. In order to gain inner security, we will pay a lot.
Some people just want to stay in places they are familiar with because they are too striving for security, and never want to take a step towards unknown places.
They will briefly gain control of their own destiny, and they seem to gain a sense of security. But if we extend the time, we will find that this sense of security is fragile.
Whether it's money, career, or feelings, greater rewards are often in the darker gray of uncertainty.
When you choose a low-risk income stream, you lose the opportunity to become rich. When you choose a stable job, you lose the chance of a brilliant career. When you demand too much in order to grasp the emotional security, the other party will leave you instead.
To become more successful, we do not do everything, but seek the best solution under various possibilities. This optimal solution is a probability distribution, not a certain number.
Ordinary people will pursue a 100% result, while masters will pursue the advantage of probability. Ordinary people feel unhappy when they fail, but masters adjust their strategies and continue to seek the next probability advantage.
When you can accept uncertainty, you can accept failure. You will be more brave to chase a good girl, you will be more daring to change jobs, and you will be more bold in starting a business.
4
Human beings have lived in forests, savannas, and rural areas for a long time. The evolutionary pressure of hundreds of thousands of years has given us an instinct to pursue certainty.
However, this instinct is more suitable for naked apes living in forests or savannas, or farmers in the agricultural era. Today, we live in a reinforced concrete city, driving a car, using a smartphone, accessing the Internet, and living a highly commercialized life.
Today's competition is completely different from forests and grasslands. Coping with uncertainty has become a new need. The pursuit of certainty has become a human nature that we need to overcome.
I divided how to deal with uncertainty into five levels:
Level 1: Accept the uncertainty of the world
The "Butterfly Effect" tells us that the world will undergo great changes due to changes in some small factors; "Schrodinger's Cat" tells us that the development of things is not definite, but the superposition of quantum states; "The second law of thermodynamics" (The principle of entropy increase) tells us that the world is always becoming more chaotic and disorderly.
Therefore, many things in the world we live in are uncertain. This is really unfortunate news for OCD.
But this is the objective fact. None of us can change, we can only accept it.
We need to realize that our hard work sometimes does not necessarily bring expected returns, whether it is in love or work; there is no stable life and "iron rice bowl" work; yes At times, people will be overjoyed with good luck or sudden misfortune...
Remember, there is no black and white, gray is the norm in the world.
Level 2: Accept your imperfections
If the world is uncertain, then we don’t have to be perfect, because you don’t know what kind of you are more suitable for the future world.
All successful products are not perfect at the beginning. They are to first meet one or a few of the most critical requirements, and then iteratively optimize through continuous testing and feedback.
If Jobs initially didn't dare to launch an Apple phone because of the fragile screen, he would not create a great smartphone era.
Both Ren Zhengfei and Ma Huateng allow their subordinates to make mistakes and allow products to fail, and only then will the company continue to make progress. Those companies that do not allow their subordinates to make mistakes have closed down, or are in the process of closing down.
For families and individuals too. We must tolerate the shortcomings of ourselves, our parents, spouses, and children.
Some families often quarrel over the parenting and education of their children. In fact, if you recognize the uncertainty of the world, you will find that this is unnecessary.
As long as it is not a matter of principle (this point is particularly important), any kind of education can be done, and it does not say that one party’s point of view must be right or wrong. Because we don't know what kind of personality and habits a child forms, which is the most suitable for the future.
Tolerance of uncertainty in interactions with others means that we do not have to deliberately please others.
Generally speaking, we don't want to conflict with people because we don't know what the consequences of conflict will bring. In the final analysis, it is the fear of uncertainty behind the scenes.
People with strong hearts will not be afraid of this uncertainty. They can confidently express their opinions and emotions and safeguard their own interests in their relationships.
The third level: create a security boundary
As the world has too many uncertainties, we need to build a secure border.
Huawei made the assumption of extreme survival when the clouds were calm and calm, setting itself a great safety redundancy. Although it has to pay a high price, this ensures that it can survive in extreme cases.
Ma Huateng will also allow several project teams to develop a certain product at the same time, which is costly, but he believes that this waste needs to be tolerated.
When WeChat was developed, there was competition among several teams, and Zhang Xiaolong succeeded in the end.
But we can't say that what the other teams are doing is meaningless, because this is precisely the advantage of the gray scale that increases the probability of success.
In daily life, creating a safe boundary means that we have to save more money, learn more knowledge, make more friends, and exercise more. At the same time, it is necessary to allow moderate waste (not only for goods and money, but also for feelings, education, time, etc.) to give more freedom to yourself, your family and employees.
The wider your security boundary, the more calm you will be in the face of uncertainty and the easier it will be to deal with emergencies.
This is why Wang Xing can start his own business again and again without scruple, even if he fails more than a dozen times, he can still persevere; it is also why Huawei is able to stand firm under the full suppression of the United States-because it has a "spare tire plan."
The fourth level: Cultivate strong determination
The environment is gray, but the decision is black and white. The weather forecast will say that the probability of precipitation today is 50%, and you cannot go out with a 50% umbrella. Either you take an umbrella or not.
This is true of life and business decisions.
We make a lot of decisions every day in a turbulent and uncertain environment.
Take enterprise as an example. Entrepreneurs need to decide every day: which product to use, which marketing model to use, which channel to open up, which executive to promote, and what incentive to use. These moments are related to the survival of the enterprise. If the entrepreneur does not have strong decision-making ability, the enterprise cannot survive for long.
To make good decisions, you need good decision-making ability.
Decisive ability comes from your knowledge of the world. The more you understand the laws of the world, the more thorough your understanding of human nature, and the deeper your analysis of business development, the more probabilistic the decisions you make will be.
Sometimes, we make judgments based on intuition; sometimes, we need to analyze in detail, find a lot of data, draw a lot of tables, and listen to a lot of opinions to help decision-making. Either way, we need to have sufficient knowledge reserves and good cognition.
Therefore, it is always important for us to keep learning, observing, communicating, and thinking.
Level 5: Help people deal with uncertainty
People in the elevator will stare at the display screen to confirm which floor they have reached; at the intersection they will watch the countdown to confirm how many seconds are left to turn green. Although this does not save us time, our anxiety will be much reduced. Because they give us certainty.
Many companies improve the user experience by helping people reduce uncertainty. For example, Starbucks allows customers to line up horizontally, so that everyone can see the process of clerk preparing drinks; banks and hospitals will have call number systems to let you know how many people are in front of you at any time.
In the Internet age, most Internet businesses are solving the problem of uncertainty.
What Taobao solves is that you are not sure whether there are any products you like in a place and whether the prices are cheap; what JD.com solves is that you are not sure whether the things you bought are genuine and when they will be delivered; what Didi solves is, You are not sure if there is a car on the side of the road and how long you will have to wait.
From this perspective, what uncertainty you most hate or fear is the starting point for a new business.
You are not sure when you will get sick, and whether you will have money to treat the illness by then, so you have medical insurance.
You are not sure where you can meet the opposite sex who wants to get married, and whether her/his situation matches yours, so you have Jiayuan.
You are not sure whether the hotel has vacant rooms, and whether the price is cheap or expensive, so there is Ctrip.
Why is the biggest business now selling dreams to teenagers, selling beauty to women, selling anxiety to middle-aged people, and selling longevity to the elderly?
Because these are the biggest uncertainties faced by different groups of people.
How much uncertainty you can help people deal with, how much success they can achieve.
5
Let us make a summary of the above content:
The development of the world is uncertain, and human instinct is to pursue certainty. This requires us to sometimes find ways to restrain instinct.
Whether you can embrace uncertainty is one of the key differences between masters and ordinary people. People who have a higher tolerance for uncertainty are more likely to be successful in politics and running a business, and the benefits will be higher.
Ren Zhengfei of the older generation, Ma Huateng of the Mesozoic, and Wang Xing of the new generation are all masters in dealing with uncertainty. Zhang Yiming and Cheng Wei also experienced the transition from pursuing certainty to embracing uncertainty, which allowed them to grow into better entrepreneurs.
There are five levels of dealing with uncertainty. One is to accept the uncertainty of the world; the second is to accept one's own imperfections; the third is to create a safe boundary; the fourth is to cultivate strong determination; the fifth is to help people deal with uncertainty.
From now on, relax and learn to tolerate uncertainty.
Embrace uncertainty, give yourself more freedom, and give yourself better opportunities in life.
---end---
references:
1. "Grayscale of Management" by Ren Zhengfei
2. "Seven Dimensions of the Law of Gray Scale", Ma Huateng
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