Long tail effect
Long tail effect, English name Long Tail Effect. "Head" and "tail" are two statistical terms. The protruding part in the middle of the normal curve is called the "head"; the relatively flat part on both sides is called the "tail".
The root of the long tail effect is to emphasize "individualization", "customer power" and "small profit and big market", that is, to make very little money, but to make a lot of people's money. If you want to subdivide the market into very small, then you will find that the accumulation of these small markets will bring about an obvious long-tail effect.
From the perspective of people's needs, most of the needs will be concentrated in the head, and this part can be called popular, and the needs distributed in the tail are personalized, scattered and small. And this part of the differentiated, small amount of demand will form a long "tail" on the demand curve , and the so-called long tail effect lies in its quantity. Adding up all non-popular markets will form a more popular The market is also a big market.
The long tail is a statistical pattern of distribution that occurs when a larger share of occurrences occur farther away from the centre or head of distribution. This means that a long tail distribution includes many values that are far away from the mean value. In an economic context, this signifies that more products are purchased that are different from the most mainstream products.
The future of business and culture does not lie in the head of “hits” on the traditional demand curve; it is the long tail of “misses” that is often forgotten.
For example, a large bookstore can usually store 100,000 books, but a quarter of the book sales of Amazon's online bookstore come from books ranked after 100,000. The sales ratio of these "unpopular" books is growing rapidly, and it is estimated that in the future, they will account for half of the overall book market.
This means that when consumers are faced with unlimited choices, the things they really want and the channels they want to obtain have undergone major changes, and a new set of business models have also emerged.
The traditional market curve is in line with the 80/20 iron law. In order to snatch the best-selling market that brings 80% of the profits, we are fighting against each other, but our so-called popular products are becoming more and more misleading, such as the ratings of golden TV programs. The rate has been shrinking for decades. If it were placed in 1970, the current best show might not even be in the top 10. In short, although we are still fascinated by the big hits, their economic power is not what it used to be. So, where have those volatile consumers turned? The answer is not unique. They are scattered in all directions because the market has split into countless different areas. The emergence of the Internet has changed this situation, making 99% of goods have the opportunity to sell, and the long tail in the market curve (so-called niche products) has also turned over, becoming a new profit that we can have high hopes for. growth point.
Long tail market: Long tail marketing
We can boil down the secret of creating a prosperous long tail market into two sentences:
1. Provide all products; 2. Help me find it.
For the entertainment industry, the recommendation system is a very efficient marketing method that can help small movies and less mainstream music find their own customer base. For consumers, following a good advice means simplification of choice, which encourages exploration, reawakens the enthusiasm for movies and music, and may create an entertainment market that is much larger than before.
Rule 1: Keep inventory centralized or decentralized
Rule 2: Let customers participate in production, that is, crowdsourcing (crowdsourcing)
Rule 3: One method of transmission is not for everyone
Rule 4: One product is not for everyone
Rule 5: One price is not for everyone
Rule 6: Sharing information, mainly refers to recommended information, user reviews, user ratings, product information, manufacturer information, etc.
Rule 7: Consider "and" instead of "or", resulting in product diversity
Rule 8: Let the market do things for you, let the market evaluate, and let the market choose
Rule 9: Understand the power of free.
数字时代，成本将越来越低 今天的三维打印机多种多样，但普通的一种就可以用激光将液态聚合物或粉末转化成任何形状的硬塑料。只要给它输入一个三维目标文件，比如一张CAD 图像或从视频游戏中截屏而得的人物图像，激光就会把它描绘成型。一层层下去，一个完美的塑料模型最终会在你的眼前出现，就像魔术一般。Solidscape 三维打印机可以在你的家中把字节转化成原子。它就是长尾世界的终极生产工具 想象一下，明天的长尾事物将被集合起来，以字节的方式高效存储，然后通过光纤传送到你的家中。直到消费环节，它们才会实体化，重新回归原子形式 。
在娱乐和信息世界中，我们已经摆脱了货架和频道的容量限制，摆脱了它们的统一化模式。没多久，我们也会摆脱大规模生产的容量限制。
数字化的神奇效率所引发的品种大爆炸也将拓展到生活中的其他每一个角落。明天的问题不是更多的选择是否更好，而是我们真正想要什么。
在无穷无尽的空间里，一切皆有可能。
典型企业
谷歌
Google是一个最典型的“长尾”公司，其成长历程就是把广告商和出版商的“长尾”商业化的过程。数以百万计的小企业和个人，此前他们从未打过广告，或从没大规模地打过广告。他们小得让广告商不屑一顾，甚至连他们自己都不曾想过可以打广告。
但Google的AdSense把广告这一门槛降下来了：广告不再高不可攀，它是自助的，价廉的，谁都可以做的；另一方面，对成千上万的Blog站点和小规模的商业网站来说，在自己的站点放上广告已成举手之劳。
Google目前有一半的生意来自这些小网站而不是搜索结果中放置的广告。数以百万计的中小企业代表了一个巨大的长尾广告市场。这条长尾能有多长，恐怕谁也无法预知。无数的小数积累在一起就是一个不可估量的大数，无数的小生意集合在一起就是一个不可限量的大市场。
亚马逊
亚马逊是又一个成功的“长尾”公司。亚马逊网上书店成千上万的商品书中，一小部分畅销书占据总销量的一半，而另外绝大部分的书虽说个别销量小，但凭借其种类的繁多积少成多，占据了总销量的另一半。
一个前亚马逊公司员工精辟地概述了公司的“长尾”本质：我们所卖的那些过去根本卖不动的书比我们所卖的那些过去可以卖得动的书多得多。
长尾现象或者说长尾效应，提醒我们，世道变了。原来我们认为的20%的关键客户已经不能带给我们80%的销售收入，原来我们认为的20%的主流商品也已经不能再带给我们80%的销售收入。这里，并不是关键客户和主流商品的销售变少了，而是我们原来不在意的“长尾”变得更长了，有点“肥”了，原来“边缘化”的部分占到的份额在增加。