(1) Central government and local government
For the new infrastructure, let's look at them separately. One is the guidance document issued by the central government and the State Council, and the other is the planning of infrastructure projects approved by the local governments during the outbreak.
The new infrastructure in the State Council ’s guidance is:
Offline high-speed transportation infrastructure: new energy smart car charging piles, rail transportation (metro / high-speed rail), UHV
Online highway infrastructure: 5G, IDC data center
Industrial Internet / Internet of Things: Smart Device, IoT access
Artificial intelligence: perception, cognitive computing
Three weeks ago, I also studied the planning of infrastructure projects approved by the development and reform commissions of various local governments. In particular, I focused on the planning of Guangdong and Zhejiang. Because the people in these two provinces are pragmatic, courageous, innovative, dare to try and invigorate, and have the money to implement the plan. Other provinces have no money for their own finances, and they have no strong industries in their own provinces, let alone talk about "new".
However, I am embarrassed. The plans of various provinces have nothing to do with the new infrastructure focus stated by the State Council. They are basically old infrastructure, such as transportation, underground pipe network facilities, water conservancy facilities, power grids, hospitals, schools, industrial parks, logistics parks, and exhibition centers ...
But for those who are familiar with government projects, they also know the doorway. Because the plan released at the beginning of the year is often reported and approved in the second half of last year, and then announced at the beginning of this year. This is a routine government office rhythm and process. Unfortunately, this point of time coincides with the State Council's release of new infrastructure guidance. It is true that governments around the country must carry out project planning, approval, review, and announcements in accordance with new infrastructure requirements. It is estimated that they will have to be in the second half of this year and next year.
Let the bullet fly for a while.
(2) New infrastructure and smart cities
Now let's dissect it, what is the real new infrastructure.
I wrote a paragraph in the circle of friends two weeks ago, and I said: This new infrastructure is too early. It may be sent in another 2 years, just right.
Why would I say this. It is because the real big era started in the first year in 2025. You're deserted if you built it early.
What is the era of 2025?
Well, it is the era of all things connected. All the technologies and capabilities we have gathered in all directions today are prepared for the arrival of this era five years later.
Every era has a catch. For example, in the era of mobile Internet, the core is the smart phone.
Smartphone manufacturers grab everything:
Monetization system: application store, payment system, advertising system
Interactive entrance: SMS / telephone / audio and video call / message push / message center, intelligent question and answer (similar to Siri and Alexa), browser, input method
Application development: development language / compiler check, UI standard specification / UI component technology
Operating system: OS, runtime VM, security protection
Hardware: chip, sensor
So, regardless of whether you're doing an independent OS, or an app store, or a browser, it's nothing, all of which are suddenly spurred by smartphone manufacturers. Ali's AliOS, 91 assistants acquired by Baidu, Cheetah are all such cases.
In the era of all things connected, what is the catch?
The answer is: smart cars.
However, if the car is smart, it is actually not smart. For example, the car is intelligent, but people are not intelligent, people walk around, the car can't judge, easy to accident.
If all kinds of smart wearable devices on people's bodies, such as mobile phones, watches, and even clothes, shoes, and belts, have smart devices, then it is not a physical interaction between a car and a pedestrian. It's the interaction between the machine, the car, and the equipment machine on the person. The interaction between machines is the speed of light, a standard interface, and stable. Only in this way can it be accurately discriminated. Now it is still elementary based on lidar and visual recognition by camera.
If the road surface is covered with induction coils, street lights are smart, traffic lights are smart, even the manhole cover is smart, and even buildings have various sensors, smart cars will be safer. It will interact with these things between machines. So you see Xiong'an construction. From the beginning, roads and buildings must be buried with sensors and digital twins.
This is the whole picture of the smart car. This is the smart car that uses the smart car as the starting point to drive the entire society.
Therefore, the new infrastructure issued by the State Council is actually designed for this large-scale system.
If smart cars break out, the electricity consumption will be much larger than it is now. UHV must be on. New energy vehicle charging piles must also be installed. This is to lay out the infrastructure, so that smart cars will not enter the plight of chickens and eggs.
Industrial Internet, although all sub-sectors of the manufacturing industry can engage in industrial Internet, but we know that there are actually two main industries: energy and power industry, and smart car manufacturing industry.
Although the Internet of Things is mentioned, the core is actually two industries: the Internet of Things for smart wearable consumer devices, and the Internet of Things for smart cities (especially roads / well covers / street lights / traffic lights / cameras).
Whether it is a smart car, a smart grid, or wearable device consumer IoT and smart city IoT, a large number of sensors are required for perception, and artificial intelligence visual speech perception processing is required. These large networks, such a large number of devices connected to the network, require connection, exchange of data, response, and adjustment according to the real-time driving of smart cars, so they must rely on artificial intelligence algorithms to intelligently dispatch, rather than relying on human decisions To dispatch, it not only manages the mass, but also requires a nanosecond response. Humans are inferior to machines.
(3) Smart cars and the Internet of Everything
Why do I say it is 2025? Instead of 2020 or 2021?
It's about Tesla.
History, no matter sooner or later, the times will come. Just like the era of all things connected, it must be the next era, and it will definitely come. But when is it coming? This requires heroes. Just like without Newton, Einstein, etc., I really don't know how the world physical science will crawl slowly.
The curtain on the mobile Internet was opened precisely by a hero like Jobs, not the CEO of Nokia or Motorola. Smart cars, new energy vehicles, Toyota, BMW, GM have been shouting for decades, but ...
Musk is here. As the founder of e-commerce payment tool PayPal, he cross-border to do smart new energy vehicles. Just like Steve Jobs made mobile phones from computer to computer.
Musk saw the car as a four-wheeled cell phone, just as Jobs used the cell phone as a reduced-size computer. Toyota, however, laughed at Musk who didn't understand cars at all, because the shells were beautiful and suitable for Playboy to take the girls for a ride.
Nokia said that you look at my battery, my quality, my model. The veteran auto manufacturers say that you do n’t dare to go to Tesla ’s Gobi Plateau. You see how durable our cars are, and how many models of our cars are available for people with different needs. In fact, they have forgotten that more than 90% of consumers buy cars only for urban commuting. Just like 90% of consumers buy smart phones mainly for playing online games and watching HD videos.
Tesla is in China and mass production will begin in 2020. Engineers at Tesla's Chinese factory can only really learn the real things from Tesla after 3-5 years of experience. It will take a minimum of five years for them to dig out and join the smart car industry in China.
Therefore, China's smart cars, the era of all-in-one intelligence that China has started with smart cars as the main hand, can only be the first year of 2025.
I admire Huawei. Because it will keep pace with the times, rather than restricting what company we are, what genes we are, we keep our booth, we are destined to do nothing.
When I discussed the smartphone industry internally in 2011, I said: Xiaomi is stronger than consumer software and consumer distribution networks, but weaker than hardware R & D design and hardware supply chain. Huawei is stronger than hardware R & D design and hardware supply chain, but weaker than consumer software and consumer distribution network.
Unexpectedly, Xiaomi has always been committed to direct sales on its official website. Both the online distribution network and the offline distribution network have taken a step behind, and Huawei is really super capable in learning and doing things. The distribution network is also well established.
You should know that Huawei can always do big B big customers, big sales, big orders, solution sales and implementation, and in-depth services. This consumer business now accounts for half of Huawei's revenue. Without the rise of the smartphone business, Huawei ’s trade war between China and the United States will definitely be very ugly.
Huawei has also set up a BU for smart cars. Chips, real-time operating system and intelligent operating system, battery management, 5G data transmission network, accurate maps, edge computing platform, cloud IOT access platform, artificial intelligence perception technology and voice conversation technology, message push technology, big data With storage and cloud computing technologies, Huawei has formed a set of end-tube-cloud solutions suitable for smart cars.
Tesla and Huawei are right. The smart car of the future is a smartphone with four wheels.
(4) You said let me talk about the opportunities for the new infrastructure
The first wave is of course: the power grid industry chain, 5G industry chain. They need to prepare new energy vehicle charging piles and ultra-high voltage, 5G and data room for the coming era of all things connected. You see that China Mobile's largest order in Q1 this year was to purchase 150,000 servers.
The second wave is not yet a smart car. I said, smart cars can only be released by Tesla ’s Chinese engineer Xueyi. The second wave is of course the basic package: a smart city. Pavements, manhole covers, street lights, traffic lights, security cameras, environmental protection facilities, buildings, and firefighting facilities must all be equipped with sensors and connected to the IoT access platform for digital twinning. Huawei is also early to deploy end-pipe-cloud solutions in smart cities. Smart cities are not smart cities that IBM promoted more than a decade ago. Smart cities belong to the category of informationization, not the category of digitalization we are talking about now. Smart cities are aimed at informatizing and integrating information in key areas of the city. The smart city we are talking about here is for sensor machines to connect, sense, interact, and collaborate.
In the IoT of wearable consumer devices, we are looking forward to Xiaomi. Xiaomi has already established a trend in the Internet of Things for consumer devices in the home.
