Because the impact of the global epidemic, both macro and micro investment are facing great uncertainty, when we are not certain, it is more vulnerable to any policy, or the impact of the message. What fiscal policy and the message the same effect on currency circle? US stocks rise or fall of BTC have no affect effect? BTC also exceeded 8,000 points you in a crisis?
We studied an overview of the global financial and currency policy circles news for you a list of some noteworthy information dimension, BTC can rise is likely related to these factors.
1. The White House and Senate reached agreement on $ 2 trillion economic stimulus plan
March 25, to save the US economy from the impact of new crown virus, the same day morning, the White House and Senate reached agreement on $ 2 trillion economic stimulus plan. According to CNN reports, the contents of the economic stimulus plan is: where direct payments to individuals and families have $ 250 billion and $ 350 billion for small business loans, $ 250 billion for unemployment insurance benefits, $ 500 billion for the fall troubled company loans.
Analysis: The main economic policy of good stocks, the equivalent of everyone's stable risk aversion. Unlike China, asset allocation US residents, the absolute proportion of financial assets, stocks and investment funds accounted for 32.2%, four times before the big impact on US stocks blown families, we can imagine, so the plan funding from individual households, small businesses and other ease the liquidity crisis, so that we do not rush to invest money in the stock market drawn back. US stocks stabilize, and even BTC safe-haven assets, including all temporary slump can not occur.
2.G20 will be held March 26 leaders held a special summit to video conferencing
Group of Twenty (G20) rotating presidency of Saudi Arabia said in a statement the evening of 24 will be held the 26th summit of G20 leaders in particular video conferencing. The statement said that Saudi King Salman will host the summit to promote global coordination to deal with the new crown pneumonia epidemic and its impact on the economy and society.
Analysis: G20 meeting may be discussed are: global fight against SARS research cooperation is conducive to the development of a vaccine news to all of us to restore long-term confidence plays a significant role;
Re-examine trade restrictions on national implementation, which will help exports;
Due to existing limitations of monetary policy, the only option for the G20 countries to support economic growth are likely to be fiscal stimulus, short-term fiscal stimulus measures will be good investments, but will increase the risk of long-term debt crisis.
G20 meeting the content needs to focus on, first of all affect national policy measures that will be taken with the promulgation, and these will directly affect the short-term direction of the market.
Added: Why are there restrictions monetary policy?
3. unlimited quantitative easing may bring the dollar
Unlimited quantitative easing mainly to solve the short-term liquidity crisis. When the liquidity shortage of safe-haven assets not hedging, the dollar has become the Super-safe assets; when the Fed's pledge an unlimited amount of drainage, security of assets (US $) instant "devaluation" safe-haven assets (gold) will be rose.
Dollar index chart
Depreciation of the dollar, the stock market fell, if the BTC can not be with the fall in US stocks, then, in this particular case will have a "safe-haven" properties, it will reconsider because the depreciation of the dollar asset allocation, there may be some capital inflows BTC.
In addition, turn on the water if global inflation coupled with the depreciation of the national currency, BTC may also become part of people's hedging tool.
4. The panic caused by the epidemic under control, the drop in the number of new infections
If the closed city measures are effective, the global epidemic will be controlled at around June, along with domestic Hubei Province, will be reopened in the basic April 5, everyone's life consumption, investment will slow or even back to normal, there may be new inflows BTC; but conversely, if the epidemic is not controlled, the number of infections arise new heights, then the panic worse is likely to lead to a further decline of all assets.
5. After the half, if you want to maintain the miners' earnings, price to be doubled up currency
If the miner's earnings reduced by half, and only at the current low prices, which will overwhelm many miners. After halving occur, miners from the soaring cost per dollar BTC 7,000 to $ 12,000-15,000. If you still want to keep the original miners group interests, it may make Bitcoin prices to these levels, the miners remain profitable.
6. Beware of rising block BTC "Unabomber"
Last BTC smashed into 3800, there are a lot of people think this is PlusToken sell *****, although not confirmed, but still should be noted that, PlusToken left 61,229 bitcoins did not sell at the current Bitcoin 6880 a calculation of dollars, worth about about $ 421 million. Once PlusToken short time scale empty Bitcoin market is fatal, it may lead to collapse of Bitcoin.
Mentougou there are 160,000 and 160,000 bitcoins Bitcoin cash waiting for liquidation. In the March 31 start date to submit rehabilitation plans to deal with compensation issues. However, the liquidation administrator is the money paid directly to the user or suffered losses as a direct sale will impact on the market, and the former obviously impact on the market will be even greater.
Bit continent "35,000 bearish options' expiration on March 27. Last year, the mainland to do a bit of marketing activities, buy S17 to send "2020/3/27 35000CNY put option", that is to give you a 2020 March 27 press the right price to sell a 35,000 Bitcoin.
If at March 27, BTC price is higher than 35,000, then this option will null and void. BTC because of the higher price on the market, you can not only sell 35,000, so you choose not to not work right, the copies option void.
If BTC is lower than 35,000 words, the exercise, the market BTC much lower how much you earn.
Some people will understand this option would be bearish for the miners group BTC to 35,000 this price, but the math can be found, the exercise of options to profit is not sufficient to withstand the loss of value of the currency fell to 35,000, so in theory a bit bearish on the mainland options, BTC would be unlikely to deal a blow, we only need to look like.
Above we listed the important factors from the macro to the micro, is mainly to provide a reference, followed by BTC in the end is decoupled from Wall Street, all the way up, or remain volatile in the crisis, a new low even dropped out of it, but also to be the market reaction.
