Under liabilities, midline or short-term good
今天提及的话题是比较沉重的，负债的情况下，我们应该怎么去选择自己的交易模式。负债交易，这种经历我有过，个人并不是一个天生就懂交易的人，性格起初也是火急火燎的暴脾气，有行情大波动的时候，拎起来也就是干，当天浮亏数额天地差，也经历过极限1天翻40多倍，第三天亏得干干净净。
也是因为当年一天有过40多倍得经历，才让我觉得金融，真的好赚钱，只要不放弃，终有出头之日，即便是负债累累得那时候，也从来没有否定过这一点：金融，玩钱的，最赚钱。没有赚到钱，只是还没找到赚钱的办法。
所以，提及的这个问题，也是当时遇见的。手头上只有不多的筹码，亏光就没了，身上还有债务。中线和短线，有点钱的时候，都试过。过去也是很模糊，到底要中线交易，还是短线稳定的赚一点。
现在回头看，实质上，没有必要去区分，死死的用中线，还是死板的用短线，都有误区。中线，一轮可以赚满钵，短线，每天都能赚一点。但如同前期写的短线和中线的区分使用上，都有漏洞。中线伴随利润回撤，本来可以赚很多，回撤的时候赚少了，心态承压。短线，赚一点以为很好了，哪知出仓后，才知道少赚太多。
从正确的角度，我们该如何选择。只有经历过无数次短线交易，中线交易者，才懂。按照现在的交易体系，不单单是短线，不单单波段交易。保守派，短延申波，先从短线着手，由短线成功的基础，演化为波段持仓。激进派，个人更加提倡波段交易，但要求极高，没有时间的磨砺，交易无数次的经历，对盘面有独到的见解，轻易不采取，标准可以按照我的战绩来，分析实力，至少要达到我的水平，实战技巧，风控手段不讲层出不穷，但至少得心应手。
结果也就出来了，没有浸淫市场多年，像我日日夜夜陪伴行情，就不要过多的追逐波段，即便波段最赚钱。可以退一步，由短及长，短线盈利收米，追踪止损到波段持仓。
昨日给出三种走势演化，这在未来一段时间都可以参考借鉴，分析的是大方向上的指引。同时指出7000附近为强力压力，今日价格反攻至7000不到，也就是6955，价格直接下行，最低下探至6454.这个波动非常有意思，仔细观察昨日后半段走势，价格实际上运作的区间为：6500~6800，今日的波动区间，刚好是打破其上下两个关口，这也就说明，大级别走势即将选择。选择破高点，以及破低点，实际上就是平时各位常提的，爆空又爆多，显然这种级别，不会爆空爆多，但能够影响散户内心的情绪。早上的时候看社群的聊天，傍晚又看了一眼，早上多数人觉得价格要爆发了，傍晚回撤下来，觉得价又要走熊了。场内的情绪，就像惊弓之鸟，涨了觉得有牛，跌了觉得会熊。对于庄控而言，前一轮已经将大量筹码洗盘出局，也套牢大部分筹码在上方，轻易的上涨，首先可以排除，后续再次酝酿一次洗盘是大概率。这一点，在前文中，详细说明为什么散户加仓筹码在3月19号，已经说明的很透彻。散户筹码大部分在6500以上，现在只是堪堪回本，甚至都没有回本。
换位思考，倘若个人控盘，更乐意再洗盘一次，最难受的是什么，得到的再失去，价格能够反攻7000，有部分人筹集的资金加仓后能获利，但想赚更多，一直拿着，那么此刻，再次洗盘，等于洗的是这部分人筹集的资金加上原先的资金，内心是无比脆弱的，再次洗盘，估计能够又让这部分筹码高位上的车，低位下车。从此刻的运行心理，这种倾向，还是比较大。
昨日分析的是比特币走势，今日可以从柚子币的角度分析一波：
上图为EOS4小时级别走势，包含了今年初小牛启动的特征，从前期的斜率较小的震荡下行通道，涨破通道之后，价格开始急速的攀爬上行，随后再次驶入震荡下行通道，倾斜度相较之前更大，按照技术面上看，价格下探的深度要大于前期，如今价格最低确实也是超越前期低点。
按照通道的走势，3.12的回调之后的走势，都是急速下探后的修补走势，价格反攻的幅度非常弱势，整体空头情绪还是非常严重。但市场在没有特殊的情况下，不会无休止的跌，也不会无休止的涨。后市的看点，可以提一提：
后市的大方向性选择，目前收集的K线走势数据还是不够完全预判，但可以给出3种，后市符合哪一种，大概率按照演化进行。第一种，结合MACD，目前指标修正，金叉运作，之后死叉不再破新低，或者小破新低，可以敲定波段底。第二种，金叉涨不破通道，企稳不上，一旦金叉转为死叉，准备迎接新一轮瀑布走势。第三种，金叉期间攻破通道，企稳，后市牛市可期。
三种走势，其实概率上，都没有太多差距。个人采取的思路是，以2.52作为防守，尝试小止损的去抓取波段空，至于怎么做的，文章就不分享出来，现在2.26也不是合理点位，至少也是靠近2.5附近，小止损风控。这种交易需要个人实时的跟踪才能完成，不然风险也是极大。另外，现货上，因为看重的是长期，遵守熊市囤币，无牛市不出货的原则进行，故而现货还是一点不动。只是眼下，该怎么合约交易，就怎么交易，现货直接搁置一边。
[BTC] March 25 Trading Guide
No. 24 March Trading Guide
Daily
4-hour
According to study daily and 4 hours, Bitcoin is currently confined state, all three appear on the evolution of the trend trend, individuals tend to trend in the second and third kinds, not strong 7000 near the break, four hours have the opportunity to form an M-roof structure. Upon successful conclusion M roof structure, low-shi 4500 or less, or may be the period. Note that technical analysis has assumption, this assumption is reflected on the trading risk control stop.
Bit reference pressure: 7000 near the short-term pressure: 6912 i.e. high near vicinity of the front
reference support 1: 5680, support 2: 5000 support 3: 4500
Spot a bear market is scheduled to vote again, just consider the following price 4500, not fall without the past, continue to hold the stock. This is a personal position of the plan. Only long-term spot, eyes wide, regardless of price shocks ups and downs. Values are different, do not reference.
March 25 Trading Guide
Contract: short-term pressure near the 24 mentioned in 6912, there is the approach of short positions, trailing stop with 6900, to ensure no loss, continue to position.
Spot: You have to hoard currency, long-term thinking, the future price of about 4500, is scheduled to vote do consider.
[EOS] March 25 Trading Guide
No. 24 March Trading Guide
The picture shows the 4-hour chart grapefruit currency movements, the market maintained a downtrend channel in the early, rising only to rebound today, according to the current trend point of view, deviate from the channel to the upside channel, the current price of 2.33, the pre-rally test the high of 2.51 , the short-term, can not break 2.51 again, maybe there is a trend waterfall. Once stabilized 2.51 upside, short positions on attention. Overall biased in favor of the callback.
March 25 Trading Guide
Contract: 2.35 admission into short positions near the track with a little above 2.32, to ensure no loss.
Spot: You have to hoard currency, long-term thinking, the future price of 1.7 or less, do fixed investment consideration.
[ETH] March 25 Trading Guide
March 24 Trading Guide
Ethernet Square, the trend is currently keeping the yellow box on the map concussion, no broken box before, and more low altitude. Once out of the box, the box is broken down trend trading can be.
Reference Pressure range: 142 to 152
with reference to the support range: 102 to 80
March 25 Trading Guide
Contract: Empty 16:24 yesterday afternoon to inform the current profit is also good, close to the current price 135, trailing stop near the band 140.6 to ensure no loss.
Spot: You have to hoard currency, long-term thinking, the future price of 110 or less, do fixed investment consideration.
[BCH] March 25 Trading Guide
No. 24 March Trading Guide
Bit of cash movements, generally around the trend line near the pressure, or the pressure of small broken trend line callback trend, in accordance with the overall trend is still short, early to rise, but deviated from the line pressure is too large, the rebound only. Want to take the cattle, you must successfully stabilized pressure to break up the line. Transaction in accordance with the current altitude ideas, breaking up the pressure line, will be to bargain more ideas.
Reference Pressure range: 230 to 250
March 25 Trading Guide
Contract: Empty notice yesterday afternoon 16:23, the current profit is also good, close to the current price 217, trailing stop near the band 226 to ensure no loss.
Spot: You have to hoard currency, long-term thinking, the future price of 150 or less, do fixed investment consideration.
[LTC] No. 24 March Trading Guide
No. 24 March Trading Guide
Litecoin, the trend a bit higher than similar trend in cash, in accordance with the current trend, the overall is still bearish, bounce into the end of the state, in accordance with the trading ideas to 43.8 as a gateway, can effectively break, will lead the trend of short-wave, followed by energy outlook No upside 52 as CBBC watershed. On the transaction, in the absence of an effective breaking up 43.8, are high-altitude train of thought.
Bit reference pressure: 40 to 44
March 25 Trading Guide
Contract: Empty notice yesterday afternoon 16:25, the current profit is also good, near the price 38.8, 39.8 trailing stop near the band, to ensure no loss.
Spot: You have to hoard currency, long-term thinking, the future price below 30, do fixed investment consideration.
[XRP] March 25, unchanged Trading Guide
Ruibo note on the 15th moving average formation pressure and previous line, the current price is under pressure barrier, and the prices to be up again, must be strong to break, otherwise will pin down. Little attention to the callback risk.
Above points do not have the trading conditions, only share exchange, money market risk, the transaction need to be cautious.
