Tomorrow (January 31) to predict the number of confirmed infections to 9000, is expected at 12:00 on the 31st to the 24 growth range is 9000-9500.
January 29 January 30 forecast the number of confirmed infections to 8000, the actual number of people infected with 7736. Expected at 12:00 on the 30th to 24 pm growth range is 8000-8500.
January 28 January 30 forecast the number of infections diagnosed as 6000, the actual number of people infected with 5999. Expected at 12:00 on the 29th to 24 when growth in the range 6000-7000.
Up to now (January 28), the data are consistent with a simple exponential growth trend.
All data from the official confirmed the number, take the number 12 o'clock every day prevail. 4 days before did not fit, because too few data points.
Day 4 (January 24)
Day 6 (January 26)
Day 8 (January 28)
Day 9 (January 29)
Need to declare that
1) there is no evidence that the number of projections are accurate, this article does not constitute any recommendation. Here are just doing a simple data analysis, using exponential curve fitting, a formula has been in the diagram.
2) This only shows a few pictures in the early spread of the epidemic is in line with the simple law of exponential growth curve. In the case of strict prevention and control of the country, after the incubation period, the number of confirmed growth rate will slow down.
Here I do not use complex time series model and RNN class model, as predicted but will over-fitting. After testing, only more simple exponential model fit, which may be related to the spread of infectious diseases and principles, specific search you can go study.
Authoritative expert advice
1) January 28, academician Zhong Nanshan accepted an exclusive interview with Xinhua News Agency, talked about his latest views on the epidemic. Zhong Nanshan said that the epidemic should be peaked around a week or 10 days, not large-scale increases.
Typical symptoms are fever is still novel coronavirus infection. 10-14 days is a good quarantine observation period, the incubation period has passed, timely treatment of disease, the incidence did not have no disease, will not return spring big infection, the measures can not stop the investigation.
Zhongnan Hospital 2) Wuhan University Professor Gui Xi-en prediction of Infectious Diseases, the incidence of "turning" in weeks, is expected before the fifteenth day of Wuhan will be the turning point of the spread of the epidemic, we must keep the faith. 3) China Academy of Engineering, the National Committee of the High-Level Expert Group Wei Jian Li Lanjuan Academy of Sciences said that the current increase in confirmed cases in our expectations.
疫情峰值我们也在不断的预测，关键是我们对于已经感染的人全部隔离了。对于那些隐性感染的人全部找到，感染的人全部隔离，那么通过14天的潜伏期在隔离以后，那么新发的感染率就要慢慢的往下降了。
在杭州的国家重点实验室分离出了3株新型冠状病毒的毒株，意味着我们已经拥有了疫苗的种子株。通过疫苗株以后，我们就可以制备疫苗。制备疫苗要有个过程，拿到疫苗株需要一个半月，之后还需要一个半月的审批过程。
PS. 如果有人看，之后每天我都会更新一下曲线，同时验证一下之前的曲线预测的拟合和误差情况。
最后提醒大家，勤洗手，多通风，记保暖，戴口罩。远离病毒，保护健康，人人有责~