2020, the first working day, "Dharma Institute 2020 Top Ten Technology Trends" publication. This is the second after 2019, Alibaba hospital Dharma second annual forecast technology trends.
Looking back on 2019 in science and technology, there is still simmering beneath the still waters run deep. AI chip rise, Smart City was born, 5G birth of a new application scenarios ...... Dharma hospital last year forecast technology trends each as the reality. Science and Technology wave of the new decade turned around AI, chip, cloud computing, block chain, the Internet industry, in areas such as quantum computing, Bodhidharma hospital continue to make the latest trends, and asserted a number of areas disruptive technological breakthrough will occur.
Chip technology to promote the previous wave of technology, but with the slowing of Moore's Law blowout count and high power demand scenario, the traditional chip into performance bottlenecks to growth, the industry is trying to find a way to crack the chip from all aspects of the industry chain. Dharma Court held that a major breakthrough in the field of chip is likely to achieve at the architecture, basic materials and design methods III.
System architecture, storage, computing the separation of the von Neumann architecture is difficult to meet the increasingly complex computing tasks, the industry is exploring the integration of computing storage architecture to force a breakthrough chip count and power consumption bottleneck; base materials, the Silicon on behalf of semiconductor material tends to limit performance, the sustainable development of the semiconductor industry needs to count on new materials topological insulator, a two-dimensional superconducting materials; chip design methods also need to be potential upgrades, modular design method is based on the core particles (chiplet) of It can replace the traditional method, so that the chip design becomes like building blocks fast.
Behind chip technology breakthrough is the "force of the explosion count," and artificial intelligence is undoubtedly the most important future power demand and the operator's technical traction. At present, the development of technology-aware AI voice, vision, natural language processing, have been to the limit, but in terms of cognitive intelligence "strong artificial intelligence" of leading, AI is still in the early stages of development. Dharma Court held that, in the near future, AI is expected acquisition of self-awareness, reasoning and emotional perception, perception of intelligence to realize the evolution from cognitive intelligence.
Cognitive evolution of AI, making the "swarm intelligence" between machines possible. Dharma Institute predicted that in the future AI not only know how to "man-machine cooperation", can be "machine machine synergy." When the machine like people, cooperate with each other, compete with each other together to complete objectives and tasks, large-scale intelligent traffic lights scheduling, warehousing cargo sorting robot collaboration, unmanned autonomous vehicle traffic and other perceived global scene is not hard to imagine.
Change synchronization and artificial intelligence technology paradigm shift the paradigm of IT technology. Traditional physical machine, network, software development stall, cloud computing is the integration of software, hardware and algorithms to accelerate the digital transformation of all walks of life. Dharma Institute pointed out that both chips, AI or block chain, all the technical innovations will be centered on the cloud platform, cloud custom chips, the depth of integration with the cloud AI, block chain applications on the cloud will be endless. In short, the cloud will become the center of all IT technological innovation.
Tension between research and application of scientific and technological progress is the eternal power. Dharma Institute of Technology predicted both forward-looking and full consideration of the floor. Last year, the hospital asked Bodhidharma, commercial application block chain will accelerate, this assertion has been verified reality. 2019 block chain technology as a national strategy to gradually fall in financial figures, government figures, intelligent manufacturing and other fields. Dharma Court held that the 2020 threshold of enterprise application block chain technology will be further reduced, specifically designed to block the chain end, cloud, chain curing all kinds of hardware chips and other core algorithm would have emerged, Nikkatsu million the block chain applications into the public.
Attachment: 2020 Top Ten Technology Trends Bodhidharma hospital
A trend, artificial intelligence from perception to the evolution of cognitive intelligence
[Outline] trend in artificial intelligence has been "listening, speaking, see" intelligent perception and other areas has reached or exceeded the human level, but the need for external knowledge, logical reasoning or cognitive areas of migration smart field is still in its infancy. Cognitive intelligence from cognitive psychology, brain science and social history of human inspiration, combined with cross-cutting knowledge map, causal reasoning, continuous learning and other technologies, to establish a stable and effective mechanism for acquiring knowledge of expression, so that knowledge can be machine understand and use, to achieve the key breakthrough aware intelligence to cognitive intelligence.
Trends, breakthrough AI computing storage integration count bottleneck force
[Outline] storage and computing trend Von Neumann architecture of separation, is not suitable for data-driven applications of artificial intelligence. Frequent data transport bottlenecks caused by force count and power consumption has become a bottleneck limiting factor for a more advanced algorithm to explore. Calculating the memory architecture is similar to the structure of the brain of the data storage unit and the calculation unit for the integrated, can significantly reduce the data transfer, and greatly improve the energy efficiency of parallel computing. Integration of innovation in computing storage hardware architecture, the AI will break through the bottleneck force count.
Three trends, ultra-integration of the Internet industry
【趋势概要】5G、IoT设备、云计算、边缘计算的迅速发展将推动工业互联网的超融合，实现工控系统、通信系统和信息化系统的智能化融合。制造企业将实现设备自动化、搬送自动化和排产自动化，进而实现柔性制造，同时工厂上下游制造产线能实时调整和协同。这将大幅提升工厂的生产效率及企业的盈利能力。对产值数十万亿乃至数百万亿的工业产业而言，提高5%-10%的效率，就会产生数万亿人民币的价值。
趋势四、机器间大规模协作成为可能
【趋势概要】传统单体智能无法满足大规模智能设备的实时感知、决策。物联网协同感知技术、5G通信技术的发展将实现多个智能体之间的协同——机器彼此合作、相互竞争共同完成目标任务。多智能体协同带来的群体智能将进一步放大智能系统的价值：大规模智能交通灯调度将实现动态实时调整，仓储机器人协作完成货物分拣的高效协作，无人驾驶车可以感知全局路况，群体无人机协同将高效打通最后一公里配送。
趋势五、模块化降低芯片设计门槛
【趋势概要】传统芯片设计模式无法高效应对快速迭代、定制化与碎片化的芯片需求。以RISC-V为代表的开放指令集及其相应的开源SoC芯片设计、高级抽象硬件描述语言和基于IP的模板化芯片设计方法，推动了芯片敏捷设计方法与开源芯片生态的快速发展。此外，基于芯粒（chiplet）的模块化设计方法用先进封装的方式将不同功能“芯片模块”封装在一起，可以跳过流片快速定制出一个符合应用需求的芯片，进一步加快了芯片的交付。
趋势六、规模化生产级区块链应用将走入大众
【趋势概要】区块链BaaS(Blockchain as a Service)服务将进一步降低企业应用区块链技术的门槛，专为区块链设计的端、云、链各类固化核心算法的硬件芯片等也将应运而生，实现物理世界资产与链上资产的锚定，进一步拓展价值互联网的边界、实现万链互联。未来将涌现大批创新区块链应用场景以及跨行业、跨生态的多维协作，日活千万以上的规模化生产级区块链应用将会走入大众。
趋势七、量子计算进入攻坚期
[2019] Summary of Trends, "Quantum hegemony" struggle to make quantum computing in science and technology has become the focus of the world again. Superconducting quantum computing chip results, and enhance the industry optimistic expectations for large-scale superconducting quantum computing route and pace of realization. 2020 quantum computing experience will further increase investment, competition intensified, accelerating industrialization and ecology richer stage. As two of the most critical technical milestones, fault-tolerant quantum computation and quantum practical demonstration of the advantages of practical quantum computing will be a turning point. The next few years to really achieve any one of which would be a very difficult task, quantum computing technology will enter a crucial period.
Trends Eight, new materials to promote the innovation of semiconductor devices
[Summary] Under Moore's Law trend slowed down and calculate power and storage requirements outbreak of the dual pressures of silicon as the main classic transistor is difficult to maintain the sustainable development of the semiconductor industry, the major semiconductor manufacturers to 3 nm chips do not have to clear answer. The new material will enable the new logic, memory and interconnect devices through a new physical concepts and mechanisms to promote innovation in the semiconductor industry. For example, the topology of the insulator, a two-dimensional superconducting material and the like can be achieved without loss of electron and spin transport, could form the basis of new high-performance logic and interconnect devices; new material and new resistive material to bring a high-performance magnetic The SOT-MRAM memory and resistive memory.
Trends in September, the protection of data privacy AI technology will accelerate the fall
[Outline] compliance cost trend data flow generated by higher and higher. The use of AI technology to protect data privacy is becoming the new hot technology that is capable of ensuring data security and privacy of all parties at the same time, achieve specific joint consumer computing, data silos and solve the low credibility of the data sharing issue and realize the value of data .
Trends X. cloud become the center of IT innovation
[Summary] With the development trend of cloud technology, cloud far beyond the scope of IT infrastructure, and gradually evolved into a center for all IT technological innovation. Cloud traversed new chip, the new database, network adaptive self-driven, large data, AI, things, block chains, quantum computing technology throughout the IT link, while the non-derivatized server computing cloud native software architecture, soft hard-integrated design, operation and maintenance of intelligent automation technology and other new models, the cloud is redefining all of IT. Generalized cloud, is a steady flow of new IT technologies become a tangible service in the infrastructure throughout the digital economy.