Source: Mr. L said (lxianshengmiao)
At the beginning of this article, I would like you to answer a few questions:
1) What you choose college major reason?
2) After graduation, first job reason you pick what?
3) You are now in what industry? What is the reason for choosing it?
4) You live now living city, and why?
5) Are you satisfied with your present life?
There is a saying is very interesting, is called: When we look back, those key choices affect our lives, often inadvertently made.
As in the previous four questions here: Are you make a judgment after careful consideration choice, or based on some simple, because subconsciously, or even whim and under?
If the former, then you are very good, very rare. If the latter, it does not matter, because most people are the latter, including me.
But it does not matter. Any one of the choices and decisions, all have limitations of time. The choices we make, might have been a "moment" can do best judgment.
No one can plan their own perfect life, so we want to pursue, never "perfect" "No error"; but, at the time toward their chosen way forward, according to the external world can be a time of information and feedback and constantly modify their own.
This is today's topic. I want to talk to you: When we are faced with some major decisions, how to do, we can not allow yourself to regret?
If you have these problems:
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Not liking the work, Should I quit?
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Two years at home with the baby, do not want wasted time, what to learn?
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In the first-tier cities struggled for six years, the outlook confused, that I continue to do so, or to return home?
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Over the past decade in the traditional enterprise, feeling no future, to restructuring the industry to start from what?
……
Well, I hope that today's article can give you some help.
The vast majority decision, the reason why there is a problem largely lies four reasons.
I will be collectively referred to as "4F."
Detailed below.
1. Frame (Frame)
What is the premise of the decision? These three points are:
1) confirm the goal they want to achieve
2) adequate and reliable information
3) based on objective information and confirm alternatives
These three points together, constitute the decision-making "framework." Most decisions, the most critical issues are out of the frame.
for example.
Years ago, when I was advertising company, with over children who had just graduated. His performance is quite satisfactory, not amazing, but also not out of any problem, but always felt the lack of a passion. So, I communicate with him a little, wanted to know his thoughts and reasons.
As a result, his answer was:
"Work is not to sell their labor in exchange for reward it? Why should there be passionate about?"
So many years, so I still remember this answer. Because, "I do not like your present job" and "job is to sell their labor" are two different things: the former means, I am now satisfied with the work, you can go find other with passion, joy and sense of accomplishment of work. But this latter perception, completely rejected and denied such a possibility.
There's the problem lies in the frame. In his cognitive framework, "work" with enthusiasm, joy, satisfaction, insulated itself - which led to his selection no matter what industry, are difficult to feel happy and feedback from work.
Similarly, many people's problems, also in the framework of the above.
I often get readers' questions, many people are working for eight years, 10 years, I felt the ceiling, willing and want to know how to transition. But asked about their own understanding and awareness, and ask what they like, what is good, the answer often is confused: I do not know.
On this basis, it is difficult to make valid judgments and choices. Reluctantly made, and often cautious, take things one step.
Similarly, if you're too closed circle, all of them follow a similar path and direction, you probably would not know, but also what other paths .
These problems are because of cognitive and decision-making framework is too "narrow", the limitations of our objectives, information and alternatives - there are many possibilities, and perhaps would not enter our field of vision.
So, I have always stressed a point: to expand their cognitive boundaries, expand their understanding of the world, to understand, is a crucial matter.
When you know nothing about the world, you can make a decision, in fact, it is just luck.
So, how to break this situation?
1) expand horizons
One of the simplest advice is: go out of their familiar patterns, and more to reach out to other different areas, different industry people to understand how they work, how life, trying to understand the way the world works.
To understand: people's access to information where and what lifestyle is, what are the things you may be new, it can be considered to reach out and get involved.
This will greatly expand the possibilities you think and choose.
2) to reflect on their decision-making framework
Try starting from the heart, a list of all restrictions - no matter how it looks obvious. Then ask yourself: Is this really the conditions established it?
For example: I do not want to leave the big city, because of the big city can give me a lot of opportunities
-- really? These are my opportunities "available" in it? Left the city, I would not have another chance yet? All my ability and experience, can only be pinned on these opportunities do?
Another example: I can not give up this job, because it's a high income
- how I currently need this income? It is used to satisfy my desire, my survival, my development, but also simply to meet, "I can make money 'mentality?
And so on. This is a difficult thing, but also make yourself a better understanding of their own, facing the heart of the practice.
3) jump out
Always ask yourself a question: I have other options?
Do not be limited decision-making framework you see - that is often filtered others, judge, after the spread, and then presented to you.
The output value of these "passive" among, learn to take the initiative to control information.
2. Emotional (Fear)
Our mood is like a wild horse, and the reason is the reins - Unfortunately, in many cases, we often will be the Broncos' running scared to forget the hand still holding the reins.
There, we are most likely to commit errors, one is greed, the second is fear.
But in fact, they are essentially the same - aversion stems from the "loss" of.
Daniel Kahneman and Seiler and other behavioral economists, conducted an experiment: They Divide the participants into two groups AB, give each person a cup group A, and they said: This cup is yours, you can take home, you can sell it, the price is up to you.
Then, they gave a sum of money per person in group B, and tell them: You can take this money, you can also use it to buy a cup A group.
What is the result? A group inside, people are willing to sell the cup, the median price was $ 5.79; Group B inside, people are willing to buy the cup, the median bid is $ 2.25.
With a cup, two groups of people, gives a difference of more than 1 times the estimate.
why? The reason is very simple. Group A, the cup is that they "already have" items, and therefore their value judgments on the cup will rise. While Group B, they have the money, so they judge the value for money will rise.
That is, both groups agree that: you own something more valuable.
There are many similar experiments, the results are consistent.
Further reflection, you will find a very interesting point:
In this experiment above, A is the first group to get the cup, and then choose whether to sell, so their initial status is set to "I have a cup, whether or not to sell it."
The initial status of the group B were set to "I do not have the cup would be willing to buy it" - thus, loss aversion will play a role.
In other words, we determine the value of things, according to the decision will be subject to "initial state" affect our psychological:
We think we "should have something" - even if it does not actually own, will lose it very exclusive.
This is what most people make "irrational" the root of decision-making.
I order to develop, give up other opportunities, family, came to the big city, where the opportunity is supposed to belong to me, so I do not want to "lose" them.
I entered the company, diligently for three years, been denied promotion, but I have paid so much, I do not want a possible opportunity for advancement "lost."
I have been concerned about a stock, did not buy, the results of which rose, so I regret, hastened to follow up, hoping to restore the "lost" revenue - the result is stuck in the high point ......
Daniel Kahneman found that: people in the face of loss, if not avoided, would be willing to take a higher risk than usual - when the external stimulus of fear signal to our amygdala, our rational brain will be suppressed amygdala signal is amplified, let's get into "fight or flight" in response.
Either completely huddled in the comfort of their own area, hesitant; or, blood on the Bay, regardless of whether the costs, benefits and possibilities, do not hit the brick wall does not look back.
If you can not pull the reins, most likely, it is washed down the cliff.
How to break the mood of our intervention it? I most commonly used method is to quantify + two-way comparison method.
For example: like "been denied promotion, you do not quit," the problem, an effective way of thinking is:
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If I were to stay, how long I might need to upsize? Promotion can bring benefits to cover the cost? What can I do to shorten this period of time cost?
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If I choose to leave, what is the cost I have to pay? What is the expected return likely to get? What can I do to reduce costs, increase revenue?
In this process, we need to pay attention to three points:
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Interference exclude sunk costs: I "have paid" something important, the key is to look at the future;
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Try to consider the possibility of objective: eliminate the interference of emotions, ask yourself down, I believe it will be realized to what extent?
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If I do not, I have nothing to alternative options: to think about the opportunity cost included? The results they bring have to be taken into account.
When you begin to use reason to think, even if the results may not be accurate, you have successfully recovered the control over the brain.
3. Experience (Familiar)
Think about it, most of the time, you make a judgment, it is not basically for two reasons: first, to tell someone else your message (probably skeptical); secondly, they had experienced, and to recognize similar things knowledge, experience and memory.
such as:
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To no longer be a year or two after it, people in other departments, it seems to be more than a few years, they are also going up.
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The companies are using this method, we also try to vote money.
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Development of the industry a few years ago Yes, this is it!
But most of the time, the experience is not so tricky.
The reason is simple: First, the experience will enable us to enlarge the similarity between things, ignoring the difference between things; second, the experience of the past, static, but constantly in the development of the times, we tend to misjudge time It will affect the results.
As before these few examples, in fact, it is clear: the situation in other sectors like you do? Several companies with our former company the same? A few years ago the environment, the background, as now it?
Before I set foot in an industry, we encountered a competitor in an attempt to replicate their experience in other venture capital industry - burn, expand the scale, user education, occupation of the mind, started the brand, and then sell cash.
As a result, due to the small industry, market capacity, limited imagination, funds can not keep up, can not receive pre-investment returns, followed by the opening of stores in a home off.
More importantly, you can ensure that your experience is certainly right for you?
Our awareness and understanding of things, often based on their existing knowledge. This leads, we received information, we are likely to be inadvertently distorted, enlarge and change, thus, leaving inaccurate, not objective impression.
Furthermore, it would create "confirmation bias" (Confirmation bias) and "motivation reasoning" (Motivated reasoning). In simple terms is this: Based on our existing experience, knowledge and awareness, we will consciously or unconsciously pick evidence outside to arrive at our position in favor of the view.
In 2009 there have been an experiment: The psychologist told a popular talk show host, with a sarcastic tone to imitate Republican, then interviewed viewers to watch programs. Democratic supporters who generally believe that, "he ridiculed Republicans"; and Republican supporters think that "media dominated by Democrats, he can only reveal the position in such a way."
In other words: what you believe, what you see is very likely.
One can imagine that when we put these experiences as a basis for making judgments and decisions, and how it is not solid.
In particular, when we put the past experiences of "attribution", we can easily summarize some specious "routine" and "mode": The reason I was successful, because to do these things; I did not success, because not doing these things.
And when we put these experiences apply to new problems and new situations below, it is easy to make mistakes.
So, how to crack it?
1) driven decision with facts and figures
No matter how much you familiar with an area, how experienced, will keep the empty cup mentality: before making a decision, as far as possible to collect the latest facts, evidence and data, and use them as the basis, rather than rely on their own "words Zaozao. "
2) focus on "different places"
One of the most common mistakes people make, is to label things, amplifying their similarity, ignoring their differences, so that in the direction it has gone wrong.
Therefore, trying to overcome the "labeling" the habit, allow yourself to experience familiar with the concerns of different, novel place, and ask yourself:
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These differences matter?
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They may cause any changes?
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How should I change?
It may not be able to help you "do the right thing," but you can well avoid mistakes.
3) small run
This is my most common strategies.
Face a new situation, I will be in accordance with past experience, develop a plan, set a few nodes, and set expectations index for each node.
If all goes according to plan, but also to achieve the perfect indicator, it would continue to observe down; if indicators fluctuate, and that there was an anomaly - a new issue is inconsistent with the experience occurred. Thus, according to the processing plan.
This way of thinking, you deserve in life and work, and continue to practice and skill, very useful.
4. The decision-making style (Focus)
Psychologists Kruglanski and Higgins proposed a theory called "regulatory model theory" (Regulation mode theory). This theory holds that our decision-making process, in fact, is a "directional - action" process:
We first confirmed what the shortcomings of the current situation? The goal is to achieve what?
Then, go to thinking about how to achieve this goal through action?
In this process, different people have two tendencies.
The first one will be more focused on the goal. They will be obsessed to find the "optimal solution", the pursuit of the best to do the right thing in the best way. Such people, called "evaluators."
While the second one will focus on the action. For them, caught in a "not satisfied" the state is not acceptable, they will immediately act decisively so that they reach a better state - that is, the pursuit of "satisfactory solution." Such people, called "actors」 .
A paper by the end of 2018 states: assessor when making decisions, often because of excessive focus on "the right result" and consume a lot of energy, resulting in depletion, resulting in stress, anxiety and depression - and these are caused by the decision-making the reason of lower quality.
Think about it, you are not like this: faced with a dilemma, always worry about the outcome, continue to hesitate in both, wandering, for a moment think this is better, while another told myself, it does seem to be more useful.
But in fact, the process itself, will seriously take up your cognitive resources - it will always stay in your brain, even when doing other things, this part of the resources can not be released.
Over time, it will not only have your work and life impact will weaken your grip on the brain.
You will be under pressure and frustration, reducing the brain's rational control of power, the choice to the emotional and sensual.
In fact, the authors point out: Most of the time, "the actors' performance seem better. They not only make a decision time is shorter, the quality of decision-making also tend to be more satisfied. They are more likely to enter the "flow" - state, and easier to get rid of the negative consequences .
So, if you are an "evaluator" may wish to refer to these suggestions:
1) the "optimal solution" is converted to "satisfactory solution"
You have to accept the fact: this world, most of the time there is no perfect approach. Each option, it is either to sacrifice the interests of this part, or the expense of another part of the benefit.
So, you may wish to reduce their own goals, not to pursue "the best solution", but the pursuit of "satisfactory solution."
Remember one thing: our satisfaction, does not depend on the absolute results, but on the gap between results and expectations.
2) establishing constraints
For example: I am in the choice of investment in the industry, will set its own principles: not blind expansion; not the pursuit of high returns in the short term; mainly to see whether the product team and the possibility of long-term, sustainable development.
As a result, I may not get the optimal solution (in a short time to benefit the most), but at least I can get a satisfactory solution - to ensure the safety and soundness of asset growth, and play a positive role in the industry.
Also, when you make decisions based on their own values may wish to set several principles, determined not overstepped.
Seemingly narrowed the possibilities and decision-making framework, but can be very effective in helping you reduce stress.
3) attitude adjustment
One or two decisions do not determine our life, in our future, we will never get a better opportunity for themselves.
Please believe that.
Finally, mention a few simple, but very useful suggestions:
1. With the perspective of a spectator to think about
If you are confused and dilemma and confusion, try the conversion perspective: Assuming his friends encountered similar difficulties, and you're going to open solutions him, comfort him, you would say what?
This can effectively make your own mind with feelings of "keep a distance", so as to leave breathing space and thinking.
You will be surprised to find that many of you can not see the original, unexpected things, will clearly emerge.
2. reverse thinking: I am willing to give up anything?
There is a saying called: the nature of decision-making, not a choice, but to give up anything.
It is disgust with similar loss - Many times, we can not make decisions, often because did not want to give up anything.
So, try to break through their own inertia of thinking, to overcome this obsession, ask yourself: If we have to give up, I am willing to give up anything?
Adapt themselves to "give up" and give up this instinctive rejection, to think "give up" after the results of circumstances and possibilities, slowly, you may find that, in fact, did not they want to so bad.
3. decomposition problem
How can from others, to get effective help and guidance? The most important thing is to learn to break down the problem.
For example, you run to ask others: I have two offer, one is certain Internet companies, is another start-up companies, I choose which one is better? - is not necessarily the answer. Because someone is not you, know your abilities, strengths and weaknesses, preferences, goals, career planning, how to give you advice?
You have to do is break down the issues, to split it affect your decision-making factors, then, and then based on these factors, to acquire appropriate information.
For example, if you value the future, we might ask: both companies, generally how long it can be achieved promotion, exposed to more things, what are the requirements?
If you value income, you might ask: What is the structure of their income, what happens over the next few years, and so on.
This will be more effective, but also allow others targeted to help you.
4. Action
Decision-making is never the end. Our aim is to make their lives better.
So, as I said at the beginning of the article:
No one can plan their own perfect life.
We want to pursue, never "perfect" "No error."
Instead, when towards their chosen way forward, based on the information and feedback can always outside world, constantly revised their own.
And you encourage each other. :)