https://www.toutiao.com/a6687087587892396548/
"I say only the truth of public property No."
01
Property purchasing power, an indicator to evaluate a city's per capita tax.
First contrast Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen (the total amount of tax data not found in Beijing, Shenzhen, the reader if there are, welcome, the use of total tax revenue data)
Per capita tax as a standard, Shanghai, Shenzhen Beijing housing prices are relatively undervalued.
Look at the first-tier cities in the first quarter operating data.
This table is taken from "China Real Estate News"
Taking Beijing as an example, the growth rate of fixed investment growth is 8 times more than in Shanghai, real estate development and investment growth is 8 times that of Shanghai, high GDP growth rate of 0.7% is not unexpected.
But Shanghai 5.7 percent growth rate is still lower than expected.
02
Take Shanghai, Suzhou contrast to second-tier cities
Per capita tax standard, Suzhou, Shanghai housing prices are relatively undervalued.
Then let's compare three cities of Suzhou, Wuxi
Per capita tax standard, Suzhou, Wuxi compare prices but not necessarily overvalued.
A recent public media ridiculed the Suzhou net prices become red city.
Not surprisingly, Jiangsu Province, taking into account a number of years will become the first province initially developed economies entered, and Suzhou in Jiangsu is one of the double header.
Housing prices to infrastructure as a leader, as the population moved to assets hoarding.
Popular TV series "are very good" vivid manifestation of urban construction in Suzhou.
Population to the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and other urban agglomerations is moved to a historic choice.
Suzhou logical and house prices rising trend.
This city of Suzhou, there must be a reasonable presence of foam.
Overweight regulation can be compressed foam, but whether it actually needs must be overweight discretion. Because Suzhou to face competition in Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, Wuhan and so on cities.
Voting is public confidence in the city's housing prices to a certain extent.
Economically developed Jiangsu Province, Suzhou near Shanghai large, Suzhou, backed by the population base. Suzhou rose fuss about nothing.
03
A lot of people are waiting for prices to rise Shanghai, the most urgent is that real estate speculators, 2017, 2018, members of the public to buy a house is the same high mood.
Suzhou people Tucao high prices, but also because of Suzhou and Shanghai contrast.
Shanghai is the biggest advantage of geographical, while the price is about the people, places, money overall.
Shanghai population control back to bite the urban economy has been gradually reflected, after entering 2019 prices and labor costs are on the rise.
On the other hand are in the process of settled people also appreciate the accounts have gradually relaxed trend.
Postures and second-line grab people will tear Shanghai retains the ultra-line superiority, nor in line with national multi-matrix urban agglomeration strategy. (Beijing empathy)
政府卖地、开发商开发商品房销售给贷款的市民的过程会产生大量的货币。而上海把大量的土地供应给租赁房，把一次性的卖地收入变成多次收取的现金流，消灭了潜在的货币。
中国黄金楼市十年，到底是地产催生了货币还是货币选择了房子，其实没那么重要，结局就是城市快速发展和房价快速上升同步。
2017、2018年的上海经验告诉我们，房价想要不涨是可以做到的。
04
上海默默地选择了城市化的第二阶段。
官方用语是高质量发展阶段。
在城市化的第一阶段里，政府通过出售土地获得货币，进行大规模城市建设，招商引资、政府和资本配合建设产业和生活配套，政府通过税收获得长期现金流收入。土地是一次性贴现给政府的。
这其中买房群体是对城市建设有贡献的。
在城市化的第二阶段里，政府通过让渡土地一次性收入，例如产业型土地，上海临港便宜批地给特斯拉，上海青浦便宜批地给华为，例如住宅，上海这几年提供了大面积公租房用地，并且计划给外地户籍的市民也提供共有产权房。
深圳的人才安居房、城中村动迁暂停而实行改造（消灭了潜在货币）也是处于第二阶段。
北京和上海差不多，北京市政府迁往通州，还有一轮第一阶段城市化的红利，但北京的城市群落发展理念是全面落后上海、深圳的。因为京津冀没有任何一个可以和苏州杭州南京相比的城市，意味着北京没有可以学习的北方经验或者北京不愿意把资源分享给京津冀。
05
上海是执行房住不炒表现最好的城市，没有之一（当然北京、深圳也不差。）这三个城市提前进入城市化第二阶段是因为随着收入增长，基建化推动城市经济呈现边际效应递减是必然的。
城市战略要有一定的前瞻性。
更多的城市处在第一阶段，主动的或者被动的，房价涨了。
房价涨了之后，对于上海的经济带来了拖累。
比如，房价和消费多数时候是正相关的，但和汽车消费负相关。
2018年，预言过中国汽车市场会销量下滑。2018年底预言上海汽车产业或在2019年迎来下滑。
这其中一个重要因素就是房价。
房价和消费其实是正相关的，这个有机构研究过。
但有一个例外（另外撰文写）就是大件消费和房价负相关，比如汽车。
2018年上海汽车业权重超过20%。
没有查到一季度上海汽车业增速是不是为负数，存在一种可能，一季度就已经增速为负数了。
汽车业是大件消费、高端消费的代表，全国房价普涨对于上海这种以商立市的城市，影响是多方面的。
对于一线城市而言，执行房住不炒的背景下二线城市房价的上涨会打击部分市民对于城市的信心。
上海这两年主力价的房子一度下跌了接近20%。
历史上任何阶段回老家买房子都是错误的。最近两年不是。
历史上任何阶段回二线买房子不如买在上海，这两年恰恰相反。
上海老龄化、少子化、谨慎（中性评价，不是贬义，也不是褒义，但房价不涨会成为情绪性看空理由）都成为个人买家选择外地的理由。
开发商为什么会让内环土地流拍，为什么会让江桥的地价和苏州园区差不多呢？
因为资本厌恶不确定性。
这个不确定性是当开发商把土地变成房子，上海会不会给它价格自由？
好比95折房贷一样，大银行为了市场份额和品牌的需要积极提供，很多小银行并不参与。
如果有市民在上海挣钱，在苏州买房，对于上海就是没有疑问的损失。非普迟迟不调整，五年社保，单身不给买房都是对于置业需求的扭曲，进而形成对城市经济的伤害。
人是复杂而多元的。很多人在上海存够了二线城市的首付了，过完年回二线找到了工作也就不回来了。
不要小看这个群体，除了他们自己的钱，还有中国特色的父母的钱，这就形成了上海的资金外溢。
如果每年10万，人均带走50万，流出500亿资金，对于上海或者北京都是损失。
反过来看，如果一个外来人口来上海全款买套房，不工作只消费，对于城市经济也是利好的。
06
在上海，也是城市化的两个阶段共生的。
比如浦东的地价并没有完全体现房住不炒。
那么是不是一线城市的投资价值就不如二线城市呢。（最近甚至有人开始看衰帝都北京了。）
我们回到原点。
房价的上涨以基建为龙头，以人口移居为资产囤积。
电视剧《都挺好》里苏大强生病之后苏明玉说的是我们去上海，我们去北京，再不行我们去美国看病。
教育同理，时尚同理……
有一些基建与人有关，与历史积淀有关，它是二线城市的天花板。
As long as resources to maintain the advantages of Shanghai, Suzhou, Suzhou housing prices will eventually transfer to Shanghai, the holiday market sentiment prior to the conduction.
If there are no qualified buyers Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, long-term bullish, because the first phase of urbanization is not completely finished, even if the regulation will form a fall, it will not drain, and then sell to buy arbitrage is a small probability event. Limit new disc or subsequent regulation fell after a lot of overweight, should gallon.
Shanghai's housing prices the past two years the policy of squeezing the first phase of urbanization bubble, housing prices in the future will be how to get points is actually a problem.
The market is emotional, or do not see a potential bubble is reasonable space, or want to buy the day before the rally.
Shanghai also had to do to promote the stock and property markets, the positive force of the automobile market.