Livermore once said a classic saying: "Investment is as old as the mountains, and there is nothing new on Wall Street." First of all, let me give you a risk warning. The futures industry is not easy. In the short term, 10%-20% may make money, but over a period of more than 3 years, less than 1% can maintain positive returns. In other words, if you choose the path of futures, there is a high probability that you will embark on a painful path of losing money, time, energy, and even your family and life.
I myself and a friend who has trained traders have this experience: it takes about 3-5 years to form a system of your own, and you lose money in the first three years. Whether you can make money later depends on your execution ability. , in fact, it is self-control. If the execution is not good, you will still lose money even if you have a system. I recently saw a piece of data from the United States. The original text is as follows. It is actually similar to my experience.
According to statistics from the U.S. Futures Management Agency, a successful trader generally requires five years and a tuition fee of US$50,000 (equivalent to more than RMB 300,000). Even if you spend time and money, the probability of success is less than 1%. When doing trading, you must know that you will not make money by telling you the method. Charlie Dennis said that even if I advertised my method in newspapers, very few people would make money.
Because trading is anti-human, to change your way of thinking, you must go through an unforgettable experience, even a hellish experience (except for a very small number of extremely talented people). I have seen some traders learn from the master step by step, but in the end they failed to learn. I often say that the secrets of trading are public and open to the public. Speculation is as old as the mountains. There has not been much change in hundreds of years. The new ideas and methods you come up with must be the ancestors of the ancients. There are those who come, because human nature does not change.
Whether you can learn it or not has something to do with your personality, way of thinking, and level of diligence, and has little to do with the teacher. Even if the teacher teaches you his own method step by step, if your way of thinking is different from the teacher's, it will be very difficult to implement and ultimately unprofitable. Since everyone's outlook on life and values are not exactly the same, trading styles are also diverse. These different trading styles reflect the way different traders think.
Let’s first talk about some common trading styles, including but not limited to short-term trading, trend following, fundamentalism, and mean reversion. You will find that each trading style has different requirements for abilities and different ways of thinking. This leads to the style that I admire, that is, the Livermore and Stanley Crowe schools. They solved the problem of being repeatedly slapped in the face when the market fluctuated, which will be discussed later.