In a new study, researchers from the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford, Yale University, and AI Impact Researchers surveyed 352 machine learning experts to predict the progress of AI in the coming decades.
Researchers have found that within the next decade, AI will outperform humans at language translation, truck driving, and even writing high school essays. Furthermore, by 2031, AI could be working in retail; by 2049, AI could be writing best-selling books; by 2053, they could even be working as surgeons.
Researchers believe that artificial intelligence will be able to handle more than half of human jobs within 45 years. In the long run, it could take over all human jobs within 120 years, maybe even earlier.
Artificial intelligence is rapidly improving its capabilities and increasingly proving itself in historically human-centered fields. However, researchers also said that although AI is expected to benefit society in many ways, it will also face a series of new challenges. In addition to the possible job losses for humans, the transformation also brings new challenges such as rebuilding infrastructure, protecting vehicle network security, and adapting to laws and regulations.
In the investigation, the researchers also obtained the possibility of some "very bad" outcomes, such as a 5% probability of human extinction due to AI.