Hong Kong Securities pointed out that the rising direction of the market bottom remains unchanged. At present, the active policies of stabilizing growth and activating the capital market continue to be implemented. At the same time, some signs of marginal stabilization of economic data are also seen. As the effect of the policies further emerges, market sentiment is expected to With continued improvement, the fundamentals of listed companies are also expected to be marginally improved. Structurally, it is recommended to focus on the cyclical, financial, real estate and consumer sectors that directly benefit from favorable policies. At the same time, in the medium to long term, the technology development TMT sector is more certain to have good economic conditions.
After successive policies are implemented, when economic fundamentals will stabilize and improve will become the core conflict of the market. Industrial production and downstream consumption have recently shown significant marginal recovery, and northbound outflows have also slowed down recently. But on the other hand, the rise in crude oil prices caused by production cuts is coupled with the strength of the U.S. service industry. Expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates are still strong. Short-term pressure on the RMB exchange rate still exists. The market is at the bottom. This stage requires patience. Equipment ideas: High dividends as ballast, pay attention to the expected industrial offensive opportunities in the subsequent boom. Key industries: nonferrous metals, petroleum, consumer building materials, semiconductors, communications, operators, railways, hydropower, auto parts, etc.
CITIC Securities pointed out that as the implementation of policies takes effect and subsequent policies are relayed, economic inflection points and recovery trends will continue to be verified by data. Price inflection points have emerged, external disturbances will gradually fade, and the trend of foreign capital outflows will gradually reverse. Current market risk returns Bijia, the characteristics of the bottom area are clear, and it is recommended to ignore short-term fluctuations, actively increase positions, and actively deploy around the three major industrial main lines of real estate, technology, and energy resources. First of all, the domestic price turning point has appeared. Macroeconomic data in August have improved compared with July. With the support of policies, the improvement in September will be more significant. After the second quarter report consolidates the bottom of the A-share earnings cycle, the third quarter report is expected to usher in a new upward cycle. Secondly, the implementation of policies on the demand side of real estate is accelerating, and various policies are forming a synergy. Relay policies such as affordable housing and urban village renovation are on the way, which will boost demand more directly; diversified debt reduction plans will be promoted in an orderly manner, and fiscal Policies will become more proactive and active, and various policies will be implemented continuously until economic expectations and the negative feedback of economic operations are completely changed. Finally, the cumulative outflow of foreign capital is close to the historical extreme. It is expected that subsequent outflow pressure will improve with the emergence of economic turning points, and the decline in the value of the RMB against the US dollar will also come to an end.