After more than 10 years of rapid growth, the smartphone industry has experienced a significant "slump" in the past two years. The differentiation between high-end, high-end and low-end markets has become increasingly obvious. However, the emerging folding screen market has slipped out. The “upward” curve has attracted market attention. It subverts users' cognition in terms of form, and brings an emotional excitement to the market that is no less than the evolution from feature phones to smart phones.
Whether it is the "empty" in seconds after being launched on the online channel, or the shortage in the offline market, it has proved the "wall-breaking effect" that folding screens have brought to the consumer electronics industry. For mobile phone manufacturers, the highly sought-after folding screen has also opened up the dilemma of "micro-innovation" in candy bar machines, bringing new vitality to the entire industry.
The sweeping folding screen “craze”
Since the release of Honor Magic V2 this year, mobile phone manufacturers such as Huawei, OPPO, and Xiaomi have begun an intensive release of folding screens. On August 29, OPPO released a new generation of vertical folding screen mobile phone Find N3 Flip. With independent innovations such as an upgraded vertical large external screen and any window, it strives to create a new benchmark for small folding. Coincidentally, not long ago Xiaomi also released the third generation of folding screen - Xiaomi MIX Fold 3, trying to create a new generation of all-round folding screen flagship. As an earlier player in the industry, Huawei is naturally not far behind. It is expected to release a new folding screen mobile phone in the fourth quarter... It is not difficult to see that by this year, the focus on folding screens has become an important consensus among domestic mobile phone manufacturers. .
From the perspective of development path, the folding screen mobile phone market has now developed into two camps: vertical folding screen and horizontal folding screen, and their corresponding innovative categories are also growing rapidly. Among them, the former uses the structure of the folding screen to make the size smaller, while the latter naturally uses the structure to make the screen larger. The former is characterized by portability, while the latter is characterized by a large screen, which is very suitable for application needs in multiple scenarios. Overall, folding screens, as an innovative category, have gained a foothold in the current market.
From the demand side, more and more young people are attracted by folding screens, and folding screens are gradually moving from marginal categories to mainstream. According to JD.com’s “2023 Folding Screen Mobile Phone Trends Interesting Illustrated Book” (hereinafter referred to as the “Illustrated Book”), 53% of folding screen mobile phone users are under the age of 35. In 2022, the number of female purchasers of JD’s small foldable screen (Flip) devices increased by more than 200% year-on-year. Young users who have experienced the ultimate involution of smartphones are well-informed and have picky tastes. To capture their favor, they need strong product capabilities, and foldable screen phones do it.
The recognition and choice of young people is a clear proof. Folding screen mobile phones have completed the counterattack from marginal products to trend categories. Under the cycle of product iterations by manufacturers, accelerated channel launches, and user experience upgrades, the foldable screen mobile phone market has proven its self-worth and is now standing at a new turning point.
An upgrade and breakthrough of the domestic industrial chain
Under the guidance of new technologies, the domestic folding screen industry chain has also quickly completed its own upgrades and iterations, and led the entire industry to break the "stock game" deadlock and complete a breakthrough. Specifically, the outbreak on the demand side has brought two impacts on the industrial chain. One is to promote the rapid "cost reduction and quality improvement" on the supply side, and accelerate the adoption of folding screens to the public; the other is to promote the continuous development of new material technologies around user experience.
As we all know, foldable phones are expensive, and the hinge is the bulk of the cost. At present, the continuous upgrade of hinge mechanical structure design is promoting the development of folding screen mobile phones in the direction of "reducing costs and improving quality". For example, the dual-rail design water drop hinge, which has become popular in recent years, stands out in terms of controlling creases and has a better opening and closing feel. Currently, many first-tier manufacturers on the market, including Huawei, Xiaomi, Moto, and OPPO, have launched it. Folding screen products with water drop hinge as the core.
Folding screen materials are also being rapidly upgraded. For example, in terms of cover materials, UTG has gradually replaced CPI and become the mainstream of the folding screen market. Relevant statistics show that the penetration rate of UTG in folding screen mobile phones has reached 86.3% in 2022, and is expected to exceed 93% by 2023, gradually replacing CPI. At present, UTG technology is mainly controlled by foreign manufacturers such as SCHOTT and Corning, among which SCHOTT had a market share of 47% last year.
But now domestic manufacturers such as Kaisheng Technology and Changxin Technology are also speeding up. CICC pointed out last year that domestic manufacturers UTG production capacity is accelerating expansion and is shifting from secondary thinning processing to one-time molding layout. At the end of July, Triumph Technology stated on the investor interaction platform that the company's UTG has shipped small batch orders and has been applied on relevant terminal mobile phones. At the same time, the company is also fully docking with multiple customers to accelerate the further advancement of UTG and UTG iterative products. Marketization and new technologies with better user experience are entering the center of the stage.
In terms of hinge technology, manufacturers represented by Jingyan Technology are also rapidly maturing. For example, Jingyan Technology has supplied hinges to Samsung, Huawei, and Xiaomi. On the investor interaction platform, Jingyan Technology also stated that the company currently has the R&D and mass production capabilities for folding screen mobile phone hinges (hinges) MIM parts and overall hinge assembly, and has already supplied mobile phone hinges (hinges) to top customers of folding screen mobile phone Android systems. ) Use MIM parts and mobile phone shafts (hinges).
At present, relying on its advantages in terminal sales, Samsung is firmly in the first position. Similar to the development of LCD and other panel technologies, most of the early new technologies are in the hands of foreign manufacturers. In the later period, after technical upgrades and the support of domestic mobile phone brands, screen manufacturers such as BOE, Visionox, and TCL CSOT grew rapidly. Among them, BOE has entered Apple's supply chain since iPhone12, and has become Apple's three major flexible screen suppliers together with Samsung and LGD. A few days ago, it was also reported that Tianma is expected to become a second-tier supplier of iPhone SE4.
From the changes in the market share of smartphone AMOLED, we can also see the efforts of domestic screen manufacturers. Statistics from CINNO Research show that in the first quarter of this year, domestic manufacturers’ AMOLED smartphone panel shipment share increased to 37.8% compared with 22.6% last year. In the process of rapid increase in the market share of domestic manufacturers, the technical capabilities and popularity of domestic mobile phone industry chain manufacturers are also constantly improving, and they are gradually entering the supply chain of broader overseas market customers.
The "secret war" on folding screens has begun
Judging from the changes in the mobile phone industry in recent years, after focusing on image, design, and performance, smartphone manufacturers have begun to shift the focus of competition to "soft power": operating systems and ecology. In terms of product categories, with the "rise" of folding screens, the smartphone industry's "dark war" around folding screens has begun.
First of all, various mobile phone manufacturers have launched new folding screen mobile phone categories to expand their influence in the folding screen field. Take Huawei, which is the leader in the folding screen field. Since 2019, Huawei has occupied more than half of the folding screen mobile phone market share for three consecutive years. According to iResearch's "2023 China Folding Screen Mobile Phone Market Insight Report", China's folding screen mobile phone shipments will increase by 154.4% year-on-year in 2022, achieving sustained rapid growth, of which Huawei alone will account for 51.3%.
In terms of categories, Huawei has released no less than 7 mobile phones since 2019. These 7 mobile phones have their own characteristics in terms of folding methods and functional experience. Specifically, from the eagle wing folding design pioneered by Huawei Mate Design, Huawei has promoted the folding screen experience step by step to the direction of "ultra-thin, ultra-flat, and ultra-reliable". As the first four-fold folding screen mobile phone this year, Huawei Mate X3 has made further progress in terms of lightness, thinness, reliability, etc., and continues to lead the strides forward in the product form of folding screen mobile phones.
In addition to Huawei, Honor, which has been actively involved in folding screen models, has also shown great ambitions. Take the Honor Magic V2 as an example. It breaks the "boundary" between candy bars and folding screen phones through the "one-in-two" folding idea, trying to create a new product that breaks the existing folding machines and candy bars and creates a new competitive landscape. In addition to Honor, OPPO and Xiaomi are not far behind. Among them, the folding screen mobile phone MIX Fold 3 launched by Xiaomi uses Leica image as the main selling point while taking into account other performances, trying to be a flagship image folding machine; OPPO released the Find N3 Flip, which focuses on the vertical large external screen, trying to Setting a new benchmark for vertical folding screens. It is not difficult to see that all mainstream mobile phone manufacturers, including "OV Rong Mihua", have already regarded the folding screen mobile phone market as an important position in the case of the rapid explosion of folding screens.
Secondly, the new opportunities created around folding screens will promote the ecological adaptation of folding screen software, further increasing the brand's appeal to consumers. For example, as early as 2019, Huawei joined hands with the Software Green Alliance to establish the first folding screen application ecological alliance, and released the "Folding Screen Mobile Smart Terminal White Paper" in the same year. With the continuous advancement of interface design and technology, Huawei and the Software Green Alliance have continued to expand and improve relevant specifications in recent years to promote the further development of the folding screen application ecosystem. In March this year, Huawei and the Software Green Alliance released the latest version of the folding screen software design and development industry specifications, which specified details such as suspension adaptation, opening and closing connections, hole-digging adaptation, and upper and lower split screens.
In fact, Huawei's ecological "ambition" for folding screens is far more than that. Yu Chengdong once said that in the future, Huawei’s folding screen mobile phones will bring light office experience to mobile phones, allowing business office workers to enjoy a better large-screen experience when processing emails, Excel forms, PPT, and reading articles. It can be said that Huawei today has established a comprehensive foundation from split-screen technology to window technology to application adaptation ecology, which has laid a solid foundation for promoting the co-creation of folding screen ecology in the industry chain.
In addition to Huawei, manufacturers such as Honor have also shown their intention to develop industrial chain technologies such as operating systems. As early as November last year, Honor released the latest MagicOS 7.0 system, and launched the "four root technologies" such as MagicRing trust ring, Magic Live smart engine, Turbo X system engine and MagicGuard Honor security, and around the intelligent Internet of Things In other aspects, it has fully introduced ecological partners. In the latest technology applications, Honor has also particularly emphasized the introduction of large-scale AI models on the mobile phone side. The technological co-creation of folding screens is also in progress.
In the long run, mobile phone manufacturers' ecological co-creation around operating systems, software applications, etc. may become the norm. As folding screen mobile phones move from the fringe to the "mainstream", the "secret war" among smartphone manufacturers around folding screen mobile phones has obviously begun. In the future, the technological "race" in the candy bar era may reappear in the field of folding screens.