CITIC Securities: We are at the bottom of the triple valley, and we will report the market in the middle of the layout
The current market is still in the triple trough of economy, policy and sentiment. It is expected that the rapid slowdown of the economic recovery slope will change in the third quarter. The policy will still focus on the industry and risk prevention. The rapid depreciation of the exchange rate is coming to an end. The reduction game The state continues, and the industry theme market still needs to wait. At present, it is recommended to actively participate in the mid-term market report.
First of all, on the economic level, it is expected that industrial product prices will rebound year-on-year in the third quarter, exports will bottom out and consumption will rebound steadily, which is expected to drive the restart of the inventory cycle and change the current trend of rapid slowdown in the slope of economic recovery. Secondly, at the policy level, the decision-makers are fully aware of market anxiety, but the signals of high-quality development and maintaining strategic focus are clear. Follow-up policies will still focus on industries such as technology to make up for shortcomings, digital economy, and green development to prevent risks And local economic support policies will be launched one after another according to the time and situation, and are not bound by a specific time point. Thirdly, at the exchange rate level, the US economy and the upward revision of interest rate expectations are coming to an end, while China’s economic expectations have reached the bottom, and the RMB exchange rate has gradually blunted negative factors. After the Fed’s July rate hike, my country’s economic expectations may usher in an inflection point . Finally, at the market level, there is still a lack of incremental funds, and frequent high-cut and low-cut games are also consuming stock funds. After experiencing the excitement since March, themes related to the digital economy need new industrial catalysis.
CICC: Positive factors for A shares are accumulating
The current market is entering an important data and policy observation window period. The economic and financial data for June and the second quarter will be released in the next week, which may further strengthen the market's expectations for macro policy support. We recommend continuing to pay attention to policy orientation and implementation in the future, especially the Politburo meeting that may be held in late July. If the follow-up policy is properly responded to, there is no need to be pessimistic about the medium-term prospects of the market. We maintain a neutral to positive view on the A-share market in the second half of the year, and choose opportunities based on marginal changes in policy expectations.
Industry suggestion: short-term growth as the main line, medium-term consumption. During the mid-term report, pay attention to individual stocks whose performance may exceed expectations and low expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to three main lines: 1) Comply with new technologies, new industries, and new trends in partial growth fields, especially technological growth tracks such as artificial intelligence and digital economy. In the second half of the year, the semiconductor industry chain is expected to have opportunities for cycle reversal and technological resonance; The software side continues to focus on artificial intelligence, which is expected to take the lead in realizing industry empowerment, such as office software. 2) Areas with improved demand or improved supply structure such as inventory and production capacity, which have greater performance flexibility, such as liquor, white goods, jewelry, power grid equipment, and navigation equipment. 3) In areas with high dividend yields and high-quality cash flow, undervalued state-owned enterprises still have room to repair.
Galaxy Securities: In the second half of the year, A-shares are still at the time of deployment, and the probability of shocks and upward movement is relatively high
Combined with the "vertical-horizontal-potential" multi-perspective analysis, looking forward to the trend of the A-share market in the second half of the year, it is now in the "renewal" moment of cyclical replacement, coupled with policy catalysts, the second half of 2023 is still in the planning time, and the probability of shocks and upward movement is relatively high Big, but there may be twists and turns during the period.
Research and judgment on the theme style: (1) Large-cap VS small-cap: In the context of a slower-than-expected economic recovery, small-cap stocks are more flexible in operating adjustments and more active in transactions, and are more likely to rise in the context of lingering market funds. (2) Value VS Growth: Value-style performance is expected to continue to rebound in general, coupled with the catalysis of the concept of "medium special valuation", value stocks are still more expected in the second half of 2023.
Industrial Securities: Actively do more, the direction is more important than the rhythm
Although the market experienced volatility again last week, with the gradual correction of pessimistic expectations of the economy and the implementation of loose policies, the impact of superimposed external factors has gradually eased. At the current moment that has reflected too many pessimistic expectations, it is recommended to be positive and optimistic Coping, direction is more important than rhythm.
In the next stage, the market is expected to enter a beta-style restoration, the industry sector will spread, and the money-making effect will increase. Therefore, in addition to the two main lines of "digital economy" and "China Special Estimation", periodical technology manufacturing such as military new energy, consumer stocks with excellent interim reports, and some pro-cyclical sectors all have low-level recovery opportunities.
China Merchants Securities: A-share fundamentals and external liquidity environment ushered in an inflection point
A-share fundamentals and the external liquidity environment have ushered in an inflection point. The last time there was a similar internal and external inflection point was in December 2018, when the A-share profit inflection point appeared and the Fed ended raising interest rates. Dilute the entanglement with macro data and return to the direction of looking for structural improvement in profitability, which will become the main tone of A-shares in the next stage.
Focusing on TMT, optional consumption and some midstream manufacturing, which have significantly improved marginal performance, are still the main ideas of the market. As the peak travel season approaches, relevant travel chains can be paid attention to again.
GF Securities: Investment "New Paradigm"! In the "uncertain" environment, configure like this
In the short and medium term, there is uncertainty in the macro background, which weakens macro transactions. (1) Under the current domestic macro background, risk appetite is running at a low level. Profound changes in China's industrial structure -> residents' marginal propensity to consume is hovering at a low level. In the second half of the year, we will enter the late stage of inventory depletion, and "broad money-stabilizing credit" is expected. (2) The U.S. capital cycle is "moderately downward," and it is difficult for the Sino-U.S. interest rate differential to usher in a complete reversal in the short term. Although the U.S. capital cycle is expected to fall from a high level, the marginal increment of "re-industrialization" is the resilient part. Under the medium-term downward trend of the Sino-US capital cycle, positive factors are gradually accumulating. After the domestic supply is eliminated, it is expected to stabilize the cycle. When the US capex cycle reaches its peak, immigrants will return. Inflation-deflation relief is still the medium-term direction; Sino-US relations are expected to welcome the opportunity for phased relaxation when the Hong Kong stock market is already pessimistic.
When the price/performance ratio of the stock index is highlighted, the internal structure expresses the "uncertainty" pricing to the extreme, announcing the establishment of the "new paradigm"! Hong Kong stocks are currently more sensitive to long-term prospects of real estate + consumption, underperforming the defensive sector utilities + telecommunications, and the level is around the average -1STD, and the structure of A shares is more extreme. Investment "New Paradigm" in "Uncertainty" Environment: Embracing the "Barbell Strategy" of Certainty. The current environment points to two directions: the certainty of the industry trend, the digital economy AI, and the certainty of the sustainable management "China Special Evaluation-Central State-owned Enterprise Reform". Taking history as a mirror, in Japan's "uncertain" environment in the 1990s, the market showed that the "dual main line" barbell strategy dominated: high dividend long-term outperformance + Internet revolution industry mapping, "three themes" running through: deterministic and stable assets, deterministic industry trends, The supply pattern improved.
The industry configuration wins the structure, and the three major clues are grasped under the barbell strategy. (1) Deterministic and stable assets: The new paradigm of "China Special Evaluation-Central State-owned Enterprise Revaluation" selects the best factors: coal, insurance, oil and gas, and transportation. (2) Deterministic industry trends: High Delta assets in the AI field (Internet giants/AI servers/communication master equipment vendors with strong application stickiness) under the new round of general technology revolution across the ocean. (3) Optimizing the supply pattern: the strong wind knows the strong grass, and the layout supply pattern is relatively dominant assets. Choose the best (automobile/commercial vehicle) from the three dimensions of demand & competition & inventory.
Minsheng Securities: The certainty of "going long in China" has risen sharply, and there is no turning back after the wind and the moon
The recent rebound in US real estate is expected to drive China's exports and commodity demand to pick up. Unlike purely driven by the service industry, the rebound in demand and inflation at this time is more friendly to Chinese assets. Paying attention to the recovery of physical demand is driving a new round of inflation trading: After the inventory cycle in China and the United States gradually bottomed out, the strength of future inflation rebound is gathering. More importantly, the current round of two "real interest rates" will converge: the nominal Interest rate-CPI and nominal interest rate-inflation expectations, the upward movement of long-term inflation centers will appear widely in pricing, bringing further opportunities for commodities.
Chase the wind and the moon and don't look back. The certainty of "going long in China" has risen sharply, the importance of performance factors has returned, and the rebound in real inflation will constitute an important driver of future macro-scenario transformation. Maintain the recommendations of the mid-term strategy report for the following areas: Commodities: non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, precious metals, small metals), energy (oil, oil transportation, coal); high-end manufacturing: new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, military industry; important state-owned enterprises : Electricity, highways, the four major banks and operators; new group consumption will be an important main line in the future. We update the combination of odds and winning rates in the short and medium term as follows: Based on the winning rate thinking, we believe that the following sub-sectors meet this standard: new energy vehicles, wind power, smart home, white goods, aviation, road freight and textiles, Telecom operators, industrial software; under odds thinking, we believe that the following sub-sectors are in line with odds thinking: express delivery, coal, and shipping industries.
Huaxi Securities: The main line of "steady growth" and layout on dips
The recently released U.S. employment data has not cooled significantly, and the U.S. bond yields have risen rapidly under the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening. The global equity market has generally adjusted, and the A-share market has also been dragged down. However, judging from the valuation and risk premium of the main A-share indexes, the current market has already priced more pessimistic expectations, and the medium and long-term allocation is more cost-effective. Constraints have been weakened. The June PMI and high-frequency data show that the domestic economic momentum is slightly weak. The Premier of the State Council emphasized at the Economic Situation Expert Symposium on July 6 that the implementation of "a series of targeted, combined and highly coordinated policy measures" is expected. Subsequent structural policies to support the economy will be introduced one after another, and the liquidity environment will remain relatively abundant. In terms of profitability, with the policy of stabilizing growth and the continuous recovery of domestic demand, corporate profits are expected to improve moderately in the second half of the year.
In terms of configuration, the two main lines of "steady growth" and interim performance are expected to rotate repeatedly. 1) The imbalance between power supply and demand intensified under the high temperature in summer, benefiting from the downward pressure on the cost side and the rise in electricity prices on the income side, the interim performance of public utilities related sectors is expected to improve; 2) Benefiting from the decline in raw material costs and the "consumption promotion" policy, such as home appliances wait.
Western Securities: It's time to pay attention to the bottom of the performance
Based on the forward-looking macro and medium-level data, the bottom of A-share performance is gradually approaching. In terms of sectors, optional consumption and the travel chain are the core clues for performance improvement. Since April, the market’s downward revision of economic expectations has been fully reflected in various asset prices. With the opening of the domestic monetary policy window, the policy of stabilizing growth has gradually been strengthened, the endogenous momentum of the economy has been restored, and the inventory cycle has started in the second half of the year. The procyclical industry is expected to usher in a bottom reversal.
Pay attention to the industries whose interim report is expected to exceed expectations. Forward-looking performance shows that the subdivided industries with high prosperity include: transportation (airports, railways and roads), small metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-banking (securities and insurance), construction machinery, traditional Chinese medicine, automobiles, light industry, commerce and retail, public utilities (electricity), etc. Subdivided industries with significantly improved forward-looking performance include: aviation and airports, small metals, light industry, construction machinery, etc.
Bank of China Securities: Get out of the "short trap"
The volatility of the RMB exchange rate is slowing down, and stabilization is expected. The bottom of the market has already appeared, and it will get out of the "short trap". The start of the second wave of AI market is still a high probability event. The market is worried about the ability to cash in the window of the mid-term report of AI performance, and tends to rebound in industries with high performance in the recent period. From historical experience, from the perspective of capital expenditure and production capacity expansion, upstream computing power infrastructure is in short supply, and it is only a matter of time before the performance is transmitted to hardware carriers and application software. The fastest three quarterly reports will see positive changes in the revenue side. With the implementation of domestic large-scale model supervision, the popularization of toB and toC terminals is accelerating, and the business model in the vertical field is expected to accelerate.
It is recommended to configure the electronics industry. In the past two weeks, the automotive electronics and intelligent driving sectors have led the rise under the catalysis of Tesla's autopilot FSD. "The first half of electrification, the second half of intelligence" may have arrived, and the growth of automotive electronics has entered the cashing stage. As the semiconductor inventory cycle bottoms out, the recent cyclical rebound in consumer electronics has also attracted market attention. The overseas supply of the industry has shrunk, the prices of memory chips and panels have rebounded, and the industry valuation is at the bottom of history. The leader Luxshare Precision, BOE’s stock price has shown a bottom momentum effect. For more stock information, follow Caijing365!