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Question D background:
Wildlife markets are suspected as the source of the current outbreak and the 2002 SARS outbreak, and the consumption of wild animal meat is believed to be the source of the Ebola virus in Africa. China's top legislature has permanently tightened wildlife trading rules following the outbreak of the coronavirus, which is believed to have originated in a wild animal market in Wuhan. Some scientists speculate that emergency measures will be lifted once the outbreak is over.
In the long run, how should the trade in wildlife products be regulated? Some researchers want a blanket ban on wildlife trade, without exception, while others say sustainable trade in some animals is possible and beneficial to the people who depend on them for their livelihoods. The Beijing Non-Profit Entrepreneur and Ecological Association estimates that banning wild game could cost the Chinese economy 50 billion yuan ($7.1 billion) and put 1 million people out of work.
A team led by Shi Zhengli and Cui Jie of the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China traced the origin of the deadly SARS virus and found conclusive evidence in 2017. In a remote cave in Yunnan province, virologists have identified a single population of horseshoe bats carrying a strain of the virus that has all the genetic components of a strain that jumped to humans in 2002 and caused nearly 800 people died. This deadly strain readily emerged from such bat populations, the researchers report Nov. 30, 2017 in PLoS Pathogens. Another unanswered question is how a virus from bats in Yunnan could spread to animals and humans in Guangdong, about 1,000 kilometers away, without causing suspected cases inside Yunnan. Wildlife trade is the answer. Although wild animals are cooked at high temperatures, some viruses are difficult to survive, and humans may be exposed to animal secretions from wild animal markets. Factors are already in place for a similar disease to reemerge, they warn.
Wildlife trade has many negative impacts, the most important of which are:
- Depopulation and Extinction
- introduction of invasive species
- Spread new diseases to humans
D data description:
We use the CITES trade database as my data source. This database contains more than 20 million trade records and is publicly accessible. This appendix is the mammal trade data from 1990 to 2021, and the complete database can also be obtained through the following link https://caiyun.139.com/w/i/0F5CKACoDDpEJ
Question D task:
- Which wildlife groups and species are most traded (in terms of live animals collected from the wild)?
- What is the main purpose of these animal trades?
- How trade has changed over the past two decades (2003-2022)
- Is Wildlife Trade Linked to Major Outbreaks of Infectious Disease?
- Do you agree with a long-term ban on wildlife trade? Whether it will have a great impact on the economy and society, why?
- Write to the relevant departments of the US government to explain your opinions and policy suggestions.
Question D reference ideas:
Question D of the Little Beauty Contest is about wildlife protection. The first and second questions are data analysis questions. It is difficult to start from the third question, and the third question is in the past two decades (2003 -2022), what has happened to trade?
Reference ideas: Here is the analysis of the trade data of the past 20 years. Here, a regression fitting model can be established to analyze the changes in the data (in theory, it is enough to analyze the changes by making the data into a graph for description, but this is too simple, so Just select the regression fitting model) After finding the total trade volume of various wild animals in the past 20 years, a regression fitting model can be established to analyze the changes in the data.
Question one idea:
For question 1, which wild animal groups and species are most traded (in terms of wild live animals), we can do a simple data classification process to get the frequency of each animal species group at a glance, and the most frequent one is the most traded live body Animals, data processing can also do some test statistics, data preprocessing, outliers, etc., such as outliers and multi-indicator dedimensional processing, for statistical methods, use paired sample t test to process continuous data, card Square independence tests deal with discrete data.
Question two ideas:
For question 2, what is the main purpose of animal trade, the appendix here gives the purpose of T, Z, Q, P, S, B, etc. You only need to make a Pareto diagram to draw the results. According to the principle of Sanqi, Choose the category with a cumulative share of 70%. Secondly, we can also do a principal component analysis, analyze multiple purposes as trade components, analyze the trade contribution rate of each purpose separately, and at the same time assist with multiple regression analysis to obtain quantitative relationships.
Question three ideas:
For question three, since the subject is limited to the past twenty years (2003-2022), we can select the sample and select data with a year greater than 2002. Then we can use one-way analysis of variance, and then look at how the import and export data have changed over the years. The intelligent analysis of the output results shows that the import and export data have little difference in different years. We can use the graph of the output results It was found that in 2003-2006, the import and export of wild animals was relatively active, and the import was relatively stable in 2007-21; the export was relatively stable in 2007-19, and the export was relatively active in 2020.
Question four ideas:
For question 4, here is mainly to establish the relationship between infectious diseases and wild animal trade. In theory, the higher the trade volume of wild animals, the higher the death toll of infectious diseases. Therefore, it is possible to establish a relationship between the trade volume of wild animals and the death toll of infectious diseases. Or the correlation analysis of the number of infected people:
In the correlation test of variables, the correlation coefficient is usually used to indicate the degree of correlation between two groups of variables, and the value range is . When the value is equal to 0, it means that the two variables are not correlated with each other, when it is greater than 0, it means positive correlation, and when it is less than 0, it means negative correlation. The two most commonly used correlation coefficients are Pearson and Spearman. Continuous variables use the Pearson correlation coefficient, ordinal variables or non-normally distributed variables use the Spearman correlation coefficient.
Questions five and six ideas:
For the next few questions: do you agree to ban the wildlife trade for a long time? Will it have a huge economic and social impact and why? Idea: The answer must be to agree to the long-term ban. Here, we can use the analogy method to show the evidence that other countries ban the use of wild animals but have no impact on the economy;
Another way of thinking is to build a model to prove that China has implemented legislation on wild animals in 2020 and 2021, and the new crown pneumonia is caused by the trade of wild animals. Therefore, we can first find out the economic data of China in the past 20 years, for example Find the economic data from 2000 to 2019, and then establish a gray forecasting model or other forecasting models to predict the economy in 2020 and 2021, and then compare it with the actual economic data. If it is found that the forecast is higher than the actual economic data, it means that the new crown pneumonia has an impact on economic development. Indirectly, it can be deduced that the wildlife trade has caused new coronary pneumonia and has had a very serious impact on the economy and society, so it needs to be banned!
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