Original: Liu Jiaolian
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Overnight, Bitcoin continued to decline slightly around 28k. Since March 23, the sideways shock has been damped for more than two weeks. It is the most silent when it is sideways, holding your breath and waiting for the direction.
Is it a bear market now?
According to the definition of trendists, a rise is called a bull market, and a fall is called a bear market. So the increase of more than 70% since the first quarter should obviously be a bull market.
However, the local carnival driven by hot spots, the stock game of inward fighting, and the stagnant water that suddenly warms and turns cold, it is hard to call a bull market.
Starting from 100, first fell 70%, then rose 70%, the result is not back to 100, but just back to 51. That's still down 49% overall.
The deception of the rise and fall figures is that most people will not buy exactly at 100, nor will they buy exactly at 30. Then observing the rise and fall from 100 to 51 is actually not representative and has no reference value. But the vast majority of media have never reported this.
How valuable is a number without reference to swimmers who really enter the water?
The time structure, position building strategy, position and fund management are more important things. It is also a personalized thing, something that is not known and understood by outsiders.
for example. 100 to buy, 30 to cut the meat. Even if the market goes back to 51, the overall downside of your position is still 70% instead of 49%.
The definition of bears and bulls, in my opinion, lies in the level of water level (price).
People's psychological reference is the previous high and low points. The point is public, unchanging, and the same.
People's psychological reference, as well as everyone's own position profit and loss point. This point is secret, variable, and varied.
Therefore, the bull market of experts, the bull market of laymen, and the bull market of the public outside the market are all different. For example, in the bull market of 2020-2021, the bull market for experts will start shortly after 312 in 2020, while the bull market for laymen will not start until the end of 2020 when it breaks through the previous high of 20,000 knives. At the beginning of 2021, Bitcoin broke through 50,000 dollars and its market value broke through trillions. It was officially started after being reported by the mass media one after another.
Laymen take orders from experts, and the public takes orders from the former two.
From this point of view, it is still like the line drawn by the author last year, below $30,000 is a bear market. The market has officially fallen since the second half of the year, and it still hasn't fully climbed out. Therefore, the increase of more than 70% in the first quarter is just a brave start from the bear market.
Is anyone excited about such a good first quarter? almost none. Many people's positions have not yet paid off. Many people don't even have positions.
But the bear market is a good opportunity to build a position. The longer the bear market, the longer the window period for opening positions, the more solid and thick the accumulation of positions, and the stronger the ability to resist blows.
Duan Yongping said that he is a warehouse-manager. The so-called "full warehouse doctrine" means that under normal circumstances, investable funds are put in investment, and no cash is reserved for investment, because cash will lose to inflation in the long run.
The biggest feature of the "full warehouse doctrine" is that it doesn't care much about "timing", but it cares about the future growth potential. Of course, the premise is that looking back 10 years later, the current price is cheap.
The "full position doctrine" does not mean that the position must be full. You can hold cash when there is no suitable investment target, and you can hold cash when the price is too high. The definition of overpriced depends on valuation logic. This point may be a comparison of DCF and market value for stocks. But for unprofitable high-tech companies, there are difficulties. With Bitcoin, it's even more difficult.
Therefore, Duan Yongping actually left a subtext on the issue that there may be a lack of recognized objective standards, or that there must be differences in the market. This subtext is to say, in the scope of my own cognition, I think this target is worth so much money. I don't think it's worth it, but the price is too high. But that doesn't mean it's really worthless.
In a bear market, it is even more necessary to adhere to the principle of full warehouse. In a bear market, we must firmly believe in the power of accumulation and waiting.
In a bear market, it is even more important to start when it is dark, so that the future will become brighter and brighter.
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(Public account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: Reply to "Planet" from the public account)
(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is a very high-risk product, and there is a risk of zeroing at any time. Please participate carefully and be responsible for yourself.)