Since the mainnet went live in October, Filecoin has become one of the largest decentralized storage projects in the market. After Filecoin goes online, FIL tokens are unlocked/released mainly from investors, officials, and miners. The unlocked/released FIL can, but not necessarily, immediately enter the second-level market circulation, and may be held for a long time and used for mortgage mining. Therefore, the mining mortgage mechanism will also affect the FIL circulation.
Currently, Filecoin's recent market supply and demand details statistics:
1) More than 55,000 FIL/day has been destroyed every day recently. According to the display on the morning of November 30, the 24-hour destruction fee is about 56,000 FIL, of which ProveCommitSector (submit sector certification), PreCommitSector (pre-sealed sector) and SubmitWindowedPoSt (submit WindowPost) account for about 98.2% of the total fee. Nearly 100% of the above three costs are destroyed, and the tip for the mining work is negligible. The temporary destruction is planned to be 55,000 FIL;
2) Miners pledge 250,000 FIL every day. Miners use FIL every day as a mortgage to increase and maintain computing power. With the recent increase in computing power of 20PB/day, 250,000 FIL per day is required as pledge (including 55,000 FIL handling fee);
3) About 50,000-70,000 FIL is released linearly every day. Linear releases have different income distributions before and after the activation of the FIP-4 proposal. The current daily release of FIL mainly includes the 180-day release of rewards (before FIP-4) and the 180-day release of rewards (after FIP-4) of 75%. At present, the total block reward is about 14.4 million. The 25% direct release part after reducing the use of FIP-4 is about 2 million. The remaining 12.4 million will be released linearly (ignoring the previously released part), and the daily release is about 12.4 million/ 180 days = 70,000;
4) Directly release about 50,000 FIL every day. Direct release is the direct release of 25% of the total blockchain rewards every day. The current output of FIL in the past 24 hours is about 200,000, so the directly released FIL is about 200,000*25%=50,000/day;
5) According to previous announcements and calculation results, investors release about 350,000 FIL per day.
However, the secondary market trading is an unknown factor. Buying orders are mainly based on market enthusiasm and user perception, and there is great uncertainty. Selling orders are mainly affected by the market panic index.
Through the above comparison, the coins released in the market every day are about 70,000 + 50,000 + 350,000 + secondary market selling, and the market needs to absorb about 55,000 + 250,000 + secondary market buying. Then, sell The order will be about 165,000 FIL more than the buy order.
Although there are more selling orders than buying orders, the extra part is mainly for investors. This part of investors will be used for mortgage lending or hoarding of coins. At present, the possibility of all selling is not very large; at the same time, the secondary market There is a lot of uncertainty in buying and selling orders, and there are also many users or miners buying coins for value investment or mortgage backup.
All in all, the FIL trend analysis is as follows:
1) Judging from the recent FIL market, the trend is relatively stable, and the buying and selling orders are relatively balanced;
2) Because there is no oversupply for the time being, once investors sell off in the market, miners are likely to add money to buy coins to use as collateral power reserve;
3) The entire cryptocurrency market is greatly affected by the sentiment of Bitcoin, and the panic of the Bitcoin market is likely to affect the trend of FIL.