The gold sector was stronger in early trade.
In the early trading of April 14, the gold sector collectively rose. The sub-new stock Sichuan Gold rose to the daily limit within half an hour of the opening, and the closed order funds reached 72.7978 million yuan. Zhongrun Resources and Xiaocheng Technology were the biggest gainers, with 8.96% and 8.48% respectively
On the surface of the news, the global gold futures price has been rising recently. COMEX gold closed at 2063.4 US dollars per ounce yesterday, a record high in the past year. From the domestic market, the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s gold peaked at 453.28 yuan per gram in early trading, a record high. It has reached a new high in the past two and a half years.
Various factors promote the rise of gold prices
There are many factors behind the successive rises in gold prices. The trend of the U.S. dollar has the most significant impact on the price of gold. Since the end of September last year, the U.S. dollar index has been pulled back one after another. This week, it has successively rewritten the lows of the year. The latest quotation is 100.84, which is 11.63% lower than last year’s high. During the same period, the price of gold futures has continued to rise. The increase exceeded 25%.
In addition, as the most important safe-haven asset, the price of gold is quite sensitive to changes in interest rates. The Soochow Securities Research Report believes that from the historical price review, the gold price and the real interest rate trend are always negatively correlated, and the apex of several interest rate hikes is often the starting point of the gold bull market. Although the market expects that the probability of a 25BP rate hike in the United States in May has increased, under the influence of bank risk incidents brought about by the tightening, it is a foregone conclusion that the rate hike is coming to an end, and the price of gold is bullish.
The large-scale continued purchase of gold by central banks is also one of the factors driving the rise in gold prices. According to data from the International Gold Council, in 2022, the net purchases of gold by central banks will reach 1,136 tons, the highest annual demand since 1950. Entering 2023, the central banks of various countries will continue to buy gold. According to the latest adjusted data from the International Gold Council, the net purchase of gold by global central banks in January was raised from 31 tons to 77 tons, a 192% increase from December last year. By the end of February 2023, my country's central bank's gold reserves will be 65.92 million ounces, an increase of 800,000 ounces from the previous month, which is the increase in gold holdings for four consecutive months.
In the medium term, a longer period of time and a higher interest rate level will further increase the risk of recession, and the rate hike is coming to an end. Recently, many countries have chosen to use local currency and renminbi for bilateral trade settlements. The central bank has continued to increase its gold holdings. my country's central bank has increased its gold holdings for the fourth consecutive month. From a longer-term perspective, the emphasis on "de-dollarization" has increased. In this process, the value of gold has also become more prominent.
The performance of 2 gold stocks in the first quarter is expected to increase
There are 13 listed companies in the A-share gold sector. Sichuan Gold and Shandong Gold have announced their performance forecasts for 2022, all of which are expected to increase.
Sichuan Gold’s performance forecast shows that in the first quarter, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 53 million to 67 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.2% to 62.07%. According to the company's recent investor research activities, by February 2023, the Suoluogou Gold Mine has submitted various exploration work reports 9 times, with a total of 81,723 kg of gold metal resources (reserves) ascertained. An additional 21,380kg of identified gold metal resources has not been assessed and filed.
Shandong Gold's performance forecast shows that the net profit attributable to the parent in the first quarter is expected to be 400 million to 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% to 43%. The company made full use of the opportunity of high gold price, further carried out market tracking research, comprehensively improved the ability of price research and judgment, and grasped the price trend. The sales price of gold was higher than that of the same period last year.
From the perspective of capital flow, since this month, a total of 5 gold stocks have received net inflows of leveraged funds. Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold have net purchases of more than 100 million yuan in financing, and Chifeng Gold and Hunan Gold have net purchases of over 1,000 yuan in financing. ten thousand yuan.