"This is the penetration rate of the entire cockpit domain control that we see. It will be 8.28% in 2022, and the main vehicle models will still be in the range of 300,000 to 350,000." March 29, 2023 (fifth) high-tech smart car market At the summit, Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute released the "2022-2025 China Smart Vehicle Industry Chain Market Data Forecast Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report").
Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute believes that the penetration rate of cockpit domain control may not experience explosive growth in the short term, but will show a very clear upward trend. It is expected that the penetration rate of cockpit domain control will be 12% and 18% respectively in 2023-2025. %, 25%.
Based on the current market saturation of domestic independent brands and the low penetration rate of joint venture brands, the next major incremental market for cockpit domain control will focus on joint venture brands, which will be the breakthrough point for players in the subdivision track.
In addition to domain control, Gaogong Intelligent Automobile Research Institute gave predictions and reflections on the evolution trends of traditional infotainment hosts, SOC, 5G, HUD, DMS/OMS, CMS, digital keys and other subdivided tracks in smart cockpits. Leading players from various sub-tracks also combined their own practices at the summit to point out the pain points of the current industry and their own entry points.
The cockpit welcomes change
According to the monitoring data of Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute, in 2022, 7.9505 million pre-installed standard configurations of passenger cars equipped with smart digital cockpits (large screen + voice + Internet of Vehicles + OTA) in the Chinese market (excluding imports and exports) will be delivered, a year-on-year increase of 40.59% %, and the front loading rate is 39.89%.
In terms of high-end smart cockpits, 1.7265 million cockpit domain controllers will be delivered in 2022, and the pre-installed standard equipment ratio (accounting for smart digital cockpit deliveries) will be 21.72%. "Each generation (smart cockpit) products are mainly upgraded in four aspects: computing power, OS, interaction mode, and application ecology." Liang Chen, CTO of PATEO Internet of Vehicles, said at the summit.
Specifically, at the cockpit SOC level, Gaogong Intelligent Automobile Research Institute believes that players such as Qualcomm, Renesas, and AMD have different market entry points.
Among them, Qualcomm focuses on high-end positioning; Renesas has a cost-effective advantage; AMD announced in March 2023 that it will jointly build a next-generation digital cockpit with Yicatong through its first launch in Tesla, and further drive the car from the smartphone to the entertainment ecosystem. There may be a place for upgrading to the PC era of game entertainment.
According to the monitoring data of Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute, in terms of SOC of entertainment hosts, Renesas’ share in the domestic passenger car market will be 15.96% in 2020, 21.22% in 2022, and Qualcomm will be 8.16% in 2020 and 20.27% in 2022; In terms of cockpit domain control SOC, Renesas’ share in the domestic passenger car market will be 4.46% in 2020, 14.74% in 2022, Qualcomm’s 7.24% in 2020, and soar to 34.54% in 2022.
It is worth noting that under the wave of intelligent cockpit, car companies emphasize the control of upper-level software, and the industrial division of labor is moving towards reshaping. How to actively respond to industry changes is the core competitiveness of industry chain participants.
According to Pan Bo, vice president of Chuangda Intelligent Vehicle Business Group and general manager of the customer department, the cockpit system can be roughly divided into four evolution stages: before 1996 was the first stage, and the cockpit was developed by the OEM; 1996 to 2015 2019 was the second stage, marked by "Visteon separated from Ford + Onstar established", the cockpit turned to Tier1 to lead the research and development;
From 2015 to 2025, marked by "GM's establishment of a cockpit self-research team + the establishment of Zebra", the cockpit will move toward the separation of software and hardware, with OEMs participating and suppliers providing modular solutions; after 2025, it will enter the fourth stage, spanning multiple The application ecology of the car factory is formed.
Liang Chen, CTO of PATEO Internet of Vehicles , said that in response to changes in industry trends, the company is gradually deconstructing the full-stack self-development of products and turning them into customized development. In this mode, the base part of the hardware cooperates with the company, and the upper-layer application algorithms and middleware are controlled by the car company and adjusted according to its own SOA architecture. The company has a deep understanding of the transformation of industrial division of labor and has the ability to quickly provide smart cockpits. The capabilities of the domain controller base.
At the level of car companies, they are also actively planning the layout in the field of smart cockpits.
As the two leading car companies in the Chinese market in 2022 in terms of smart cockpit and domain controller configurations for passenger cars, Changan Automobile and Great Wall Motors are also in the new development cycle of smart cockpit software and hardware, and they have more open and ecological thinking .
Wang Jiming, Product Director of Great Wall Motors Intelligent Platform Development Center, introduced that Coffee Smart is the brand of Great Wall Motors' complete vehicle intelligent technology, which has four capabilities including coffee smart cockpit, including the coffee smart system Coffee OS.
The coffee smart cockpit is based on a large computing power cockpit chip, integrates various hardware, and upgrades the evolutionary core algorithm. Among them, Coffee OS and the middle layer are self-developed, provide standardized interfaces, and are compatible with various application service ecosystems.
Gaogong Intelligent Automobile noticed that some people in the industry said in recent communications that the smart cockpit is currently focused on stack configuration and screen size, but lacks "killer applications" and does not bring high enough value to users. A car machine worth 10 yuan is not as good as a mobile phone holder worth 10 yuan.”
Judging from the popularity of the track, the smart cockpit is not as good as smart driving. So, where is the real value of the smart cockpit at this stage?
As a subsidiary of Changan Automobile, Cui Ruizhe, senior director of strategic management of Wutong Automobile Association , believes that the smart cockpit is going through the stage of "stacking configuration and stacking functions" to some extent, and the company is doing some "subtraction".
It believes that the first focus of the current cockpit should be car-related functions, such as basic experience, car control, voice, etc. In addition, the future cockpit will become a multi-interface base, providing ecological partners with the possibility of accessing the car, allowing more players to participate.
Obviously, smart driving is more about the function itself, for example, whether it can gradually realize the transition from hands-on to eyes-out, reducing driver stress and enhancing driving safety at the same time. In contrast, the smart cockpit puts more emphasis on how to optimize human-computer interaction starting from people, and gradually realize the upgrade from car to living space.
How to subdivide the track?
In 2022, China's passenger car market will also be changing rapidly in segments such as HUD, 5G, CMS, and digital keys. Different players are also thinking about their own logic.
Gaogong Intelligent Automobile Research Institute believes that the HUD market will be hot in 2022, especially with the ideal L9 equipped with W-HUD, the market attention will rise rapidly. The data shows that in 2022, the market deployment rate of W-HUD is 6.98%, and the market deployment rate of superimposed AR-HUD has not yet reached 10%. "We think this year may be a relatively important turning point, which is the 10% that has passed threshold."
In terms of 5G, Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute believes that the reason why 5G deployment rate and shipments have been lower than market expectations in the past three years is cost. Monitoring data from Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute shows that from 2020 to 2022, the average delivery price of 5G pre-installed standard models will increase year by year, to 250,100 yuan, 289,500 yuan, and 338,200 yuan, respectively.
At present, the cost of 5G automotive-grade modules is about 2-2.5 times that of 4G modules. "We believe that the breakthrough of this market segment lies in whether the cost of 5G modules can be reduced and whether domestic 5G chips can break the game; at the same time , the abundance of 5G applications is also a key driver."
In addition, in terms of human-computer interaction, the implementation of CMS (external electronic rearview mirror), which has been popular in the industry since last year, may still face certain uncertainties.
In terms of policy standards, on December 29, 2022, the National Standard No. GB 15084-2022 "Performance and Installation Requirements for Motor Vehicle Indirect Vision Devices" was promulgated, adding "camera-monitor system", "mirror and CMS dual functional system", etc. The new standard will be officially implemented on July 1, 2023.
However, Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute believes that after the standard is implemented in July 2023, the outbreak of the CMS market may still be constrained by costs. Under the general trend of cost reduction in the entire automotive industry, if the implementation of CMS requires additional configuration of "2 cameras + 2 screens", it may be difficult to increase the scale.
In this regard, players in the industry have their own thinking and corresponding solutions.
At the summit, Pan Bo, Vice President of Chuangda Intelligent Vehicle Business Group and General Manager of the Customer Department, believed that it is inevitable for CMS to move from an independent product to a high degree of multiplexing with existing hardware in the car (including cameras and displays ) At the same time, CMS has the advantages of smaller blind spots, lower drag coefficient, and electronic imaging (especially traffic scenes such as nighttime, dark light, and overexposure that cannot be improved by traditional mirroring).
Digital key is also an important subdivision track.
According to the monitoring data of Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute, in 2022, 4,618,800 passenger cars equipped with digital keys will be delivered in the Chinese market (excluding imports and exports), a year-on-year increase of 75.49%. . It is estimated that by 2025, the standard digital key installed rate will exceed 70%.
"Digital keys can subvert the future of car travel." At the summit, Lu Junyong, director of the digital key platform department of Yinji Technology , said that the advent of the "keyless" era means that digital keys are not just APPs, but It is more focused on security, connectivity, and intelligence.
Up to now, digital keys are divided into three generations: Bluetooth digital keys (BLE), near-field digital keys (NFC), and smart digital keys (keyless). "Hardware stability is a relatively big pain point in the industry." From the initial separation of software and hardware to the integration of software and hardware, the ultimate user experience is the core competitiveness.
In the stage of intelligence and networking, the digital key is to open up ecological connections and bring more empowerment points to OEMs, such as the extension of digital life. From the perspective of car companies, if a car owner turns on the digital key while driving, he will open the APP of the OEM, and then establish a traffic portal for people and cars.
At the end of last year, Yinji Technology and Tencent Smart Travel jointly launched "My Car Key", which provides services in the form of WeChat applets. Users do not need to download and install them. Car control, car status query and key sharing.
In addition, some players are also committed to the implementation of laser display technology in the cabin. Yu Xin, vice president of Appotronics , said that there are more and more screens in the car, but there are pain points such as the inability to display in different shapes and limited installation positions. Compared with this, laser display can realize "everywhere in the car." For example: smart surfaces can be realized on any interior surface; transparent displays can be realized on car windows and sunroofs; more efficient HUDs can be realized.
In terms of core devices, Appotronics has given full play to the core competitiveness of ALPD® laser display technology, and has successively obtained the IATF 16949:2016 quality management system certification and the development designation of 3 well-known domestic and foreign car companies, entered the BMW supply chain system, and It can provide car companies with diversified automotive optical solutions such as PGU modules adapted to AR-HUD, laser headlights, laser projection lights, and automotive optical components.
According to Gaogong Intelligent Vehicle Research Institute, with the rapid improvement of the richness and performance of the hardware in the cabin, the era of software-defined cockpit has also begun. From chips to displays, from hardware to software, from perception to interaction, all are entering a new round of transformation.