July 2022, Thiago Freitas
数据来源: The Merge
上周，ETH 的价格出现了明显的上升，在之前发布的开发者会议笔记中，暗示了以太坊合并升级的确切发布日期将近。
ETH price action, previous 30 days - source: Footprint Analytics
这一升级将提高 ETH 网络的安全性能、降低其能源消耗以及改变其代币经济模式。质押将在其中起到至关重要的作用。那么，投资者应该如何为即将到来的合并做准备？
什么是以太坊合并？
一系列的升级正在以太坊区块链上发生，以让它从工作证明（PoW）过渡到权益证明（PoS）的共识机制为代表。在升级的过程中，有以下里程碑式的事件：
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2020 年 12 月 1日，信标链首次被创建和推出。信标链是一种全新的权益证明( PoS )区块链，它也被称为 "共识层"。
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以太坊的 PoW 验证将被全新的 PoS 共识机制所取代（目前估计将在 9 月发生），而现有的 Mainnet 链将充当“执行层”。
共识层将负责网络的安全。执行层是智能合约运行的地方，也是交易产生的地方。
由于升级会将这两条链连接起来作为一个整体，这个事件的名称已经从 ETH 2.0 更新为 "合并"。
为什么合并很重要
Beacon 链已经于 2020 年 12 月开始运行，所以已经有相当一部分供应的 ETH 已经被质押在上面，为维持网络正常运行而获得获得质押利息。目前，有超过 1200 万 ETH 被押在 Beacon Chain 智能合约上：
This figure is almost 10% of the current total ETH supply . Additionally, these ETHs are locked for long periods of time because the PoS ETH chain has not yet set a redemption date.
How the merger affects the release of ETH
After the consensus mechanism changes from PoW to PoS, there will be no more mining rewards. Therefore, the release of ETH will drop significantly on top of the already locked 10% of supply.
According to Etherscan data , the circulating supply of ETH increased by 13,347 ETH on July 21. If we don't look at the income of mining and only look at the income of pledge, the daily net value will be negative. This means that more ETH will be burned as fees than used for revenue rewards, reducing the total supply of ETH.
How to take advantage of the changes resulting from the merger?
By analyzing the available data, investors can adopt some of the following investment strategies:
buy ETH
With the announcement of the merger date, the supply of ETH will continue to grow for a short period of time. After that, it will become "deflationary". If investors believe that ETH will have a significant presence in the cryptocurrency market, its demand will increase and ETH price will follow. We have seen significant fluctuations in the price of ETH, but there is still more room for the price of ETH to rise due to rising ETH staking and deflation.
Liquid staking ETH
Since the redemption time of ETH sent to the Beacon chain pledge contract is unknown, and the minimum amount that needs to be sent is relatively high (at least 32 ETH), some projects have created liquidity pools, and users can obtain ETH without locking ETH. Staking rewards. Some of these pools also created an ERC-721 token as a tradable token for staking ETH.
Take Lido's stETH token and Rocket Pool rETH for example. When users stake ETH on their platform, their tokens are minted 1:1 with ETH.
Source: Lido Finance
However, since it is equivalent to a future redemption certificate, it will trade at a low price compared to the price of ETH. This spread is not fixed, the market decides what the spread is, as we can clearly see in the Footprint chart below:
ETH and stETH price action, previous 30 days - source: Footprint Analytics
After the release of PoS, Ethereum will open the redemption function. If the investor is willing to wait, staking will give the investor an additional 2-3% return and the benefits that come with it. However, the launch date of the redemption function is still uncertain, and the approximate time is 6-12 months after the merger.
summary
In the long run, if Ethereum maintains its dominance in the blockchain and the blockchain industry continues to grow, the price of ETH will rise with the merger. Because the coin will move from inflation to deflation. As supply shrinks and demand remains the same (and likely will increase), it is logical for the price of ETH to rise.
For additional opportunities to increase revenue, if investors are willing to wait more time, participating in the liquidity pledge of ETH can bring additional profits, because compared to the price of spot ETH, the tokens of liquidity pledge tend to be lower than the price of spot ETH. price advantage.
This article is contributed by the Footprint Analytics community
The above content is only personal opinion, for reference and communication only, and does not constitute investment advice. If there are obvious misunderstandings or data errors, feedback is welcome.
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