[Blockchain 108] Hao Zexuan of Wanlian Capital: We want to be Sequoia and Goldman Sachs in the field of blockchain

"The investment logic of blockchain is similar to the investment logic of participating in private placement. But the difference is that the change cycle of blockchain is much faster than that of the financial market, and the lifespan of hot hype is only 3 months, which is quite different from that of hotspots. The rhythm of the second-level bull-bear transition in the blockchain market is only 6 months, and the common sense that bulls are short and bears are long has been subverted.” said Hao Zexuan, a partner of Wanlian Capital.

VLANE CAPITAL is a new fund, established in November 2017. The first phase of the ecological fund raised a scale of 20 million US dollars. Hao Zexuan believes that, compared with ZhenFund, Wanlian Capital should be the "Sequoia" and "Goldman Sachs" in the blockchain investment world, betting on the track and finding one-of-a-kind projects in the track and holding them for a long time. Some capitals don’t understand technology at all” and “prematurely laid out application classes”.

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Author Yu Jiao | Editor Qin Yu

The investment logic of blockchain investment and fixed increase of listed companies is similar

"I have never lost money in stocks in the secondary market, and at least I have made 30% gains every year, and I have never lost money." Hao Zexuan's PhD in Psychology gives her a keener intuition about investing.

In fact, Hao Zexuan is one of the lucky ones of the era: when she first worked as a risk control in a bank, she caught up with the golden age of China's real estate industry; when she was a secondary trustee, she caught up with the big bull market from 2014 to 2015. , and obtain considerable benefits in the secondary market by participating in the private placement of listed companies.

Her first investment in the blockchain industry was Bitcoin, and this accidental investment once again bound her to the era of the blockchain: In 2014, Hao Zexuan was still in the trust industry, and once again She came into contact with Bitcoin by accident with her geek friends. Due to his natural sensitivity to finance and currency, Hao Zexuan became interested in Bitcoin's "peer-to-peer virtual currency properties", and tried to buy Bitcoin when it was 800 yuan apiece. "At that time, in 2014, it should have risen so much from dozens of dollars, and the highest point should have been around 3,000. When the market was around 3,000, my friend sold all his thousands of bitcoins, but I still It wasn't a big deal, so it wasn't sold."

Hao Zexuan's seven years of experience in the financial industry mainly participated in the private placement of listed companies. She believes that financial investment is similar to current blockchain investment.

"It turns out that when we invest in a listed company, there is a price negotiation for the shares it issues during the private placement, which also depends on the linkage between the primary market and the secondary market. In the primary market, first, it depends on the company's next three years. The second is to evaluate the overall valuation of the industry, and see the conceivable space of this industry in the next three years; in the secondary market, it is necessary to calculate the current stock price of this company and our next two or three years. Exit price. To judge whether to invest in this listed company or not. Now our logic for investing in blockchain projects and digital currencies is the same.

There are two main investment paths for blockchain projects, one is to invest or withdraw from digital currency transactions; the other is to invest in equity earlier, and you can exit at a premium when the next round of equity price valuation is high. , which belongs to the transfer of old shares. The judgment on the value of the enterprise itself and the price trend of its Token is actually the same as the logic we used to judge the original listed company and its secondary market stock, so we applied this logic to carry out one or two of the blockchain. market judgment. "

The hot spot of the blockchain is switched to 3 months, and the bull-bear switch only takes 6 months

The difference is that the change cycle of blockchain is much faster than that of financial markets. In 2017, Hao Zexuan was not sure about the bubble of Token Found, but through a period of industry observation, she found some cyclical laws in the industry, and summed up the three-dimensional judgment model:

The first layer is the judgment of the outlet. She found that there will be a short-term outlet every three months. Hao Zexuan later summarized it as a 3+3 model - when a project creates a new outlet in a cycle, You invest in this outlet, and then you can get a short-term benefit, probably its cycle may be 3 months. "It's the same thing that everyone is now speculating on EOS. There is no doubt that EOS is an outlet, so just follow the trend."

The second layer is the judgment of the market, that is, the conversion cycle of the bear market and bull market in the token market is about half a year, that is, the "6+6 mode".

The third layer is an overall plan for the industry in the next three years. Based on the value investment path of Wanchain Capital, make a long-term layout. "According to the relatively fast pace of development of the blockchain industry, this year will undoubtedly be the year of technology. The layout of the underlying technology and payment fields will definitely bring a relatively large benefit when the application emerges next year."

Wanlian benchmarks Goldman Sachs, Sequoia

Wanchain Capital was established in November 2017 and is an ecological fund with a scale of 20 million US dollars. Now this stage is mainly laid out on the underlying technology. "Except for the JD.com industrial chain layout, we rarely invest in application projects. The main layout of Wanchain is overseas, including technical team projects in some top universities in the United States, and payment scene projects in Japan." Hao Zexuan believes that only after the infrastructure is completed can the application of qualitative leap. "Rolls-Royces, Ferraris, or even planes can't run on dirt roads or gravel roads, so we're working on roads and tracks."

Every investment institution has a different philosophy. Hao Zexuan believes that traditional VCs are also actively transforming. On the issue of different investment priorities, she believes that it is too early to deploy application projects at this stage. "The biggest difference lies in the investment direction. This is only a stage of the layout, we are more optimistic about the technology, and they are deployed in the application. The technology may be the first year of value explosion in 2019, and the layout and application may be applied in 2 to 3 years. The outbreak period. Then he can graft such technology applications in 2019, and then realize its explosive origin in 2020 or 2021, or after our technology is good, we also need to invest with them in some application companies It's all possible to work together."

Hao Zexuan emphasized that Wanlian Capital has a professional data analysis team, which is different from the traditional VC or other transformational VC investment methods in the blockchain. Control system audit. "Wanlian wants to be Goldman Sachs and Sequoia in the blockchain field, and go in the direction of value investment," Hao Zexuan, who said this, is very confident.

"I have never participated in the activities of the three o'clock group." Hao Zexuan hopes to cooperate with people with more professional and valuable investment ideas. Wanlian's American partner background is a former Goldman Sachs analyst, who has been in charge of the Yale alumni fund and the advisory role of the Jingdong blockchain industry. Wanlian is also cooperating with Japan's top VCs, and the other party is responsible for project mining in Japan.

"Investment should be done by professional people. In fact, there are more professional wealth management institutions in the United States or the United Kingdom, and few amateurs invest by themselves. But why do Chinese investors always get hurt? It's just that many people don't I believe that the institution can help him manage his finances, but the risk of making his own investment is very high. You must know that there are many resources behind the team to provide a basis for judgment.”

Blockchain projects are the flashpoint of the future of internationalization in China

"There are many good projects and good technical teams in China. The team of professors from Beihang University is very professional," Hao Zexuan commented objectively on the current situation of the blockchain industry in China. "There are many air coins, and there are also teams with the concept of cheating. There are not a few people who purely speculate on coins, but the value of the blockchain actually has a lot, and Token is just one of its forms." For the intervention of capital, it is important for the development of the industry. , she believes that the capital of value investment will have a good and healthy development for the industry ecology. However, if you invest in any project like last year's proxy investment or capital without a professional background, it actually contributes to the bubble in the industry.

Hao Zexuan appreciates Masayoshi Son and Charlie Munger's value investing philosophy. "Making money is still a serious matter, that is, we must respect our own bargaining chips, and we must also respect the power of capital and the market."

At the end of the interview, Hao Zexuan excitedly took her mobile phone to introduce a blockchain study tour project she was working on recently, "The technology research in the United States leads the world, and Japan has its innate application landing scene. In fact, I do it in China. This study tour is to hope that Chinese entrepreneurs will learn American technology, see Japanese application payment scenarios and landing scenarios, and bring back what they have learned and ways of cooperation to optimize their products. Because blockchain is international, I still have to go out and see what other countries are doing, and I can’t do it behind closed doors. In fact, it was because I went out that I adjusted my direction.”

When Erudian Finance asked whether China's blockchain industry could be regulated and rich in scenarios like Japan's in the future, Hao Zexuan replied: "It must be possible. The Chinese people's creativity is very powerful. So I am optimistic about the blockchain. The biggest flashpoint in the future will be in China.”

I am Yu Jiao, the author of this article,

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