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If the scholars who read the official account frequently, they should have read some of the classic literature recommended by the Frontier Literature Research Group. We reassembled these reading notes into this article, as follows: ①Density Economics: Natural Experiments from the Berlin Wall, the best Econometrica thesis, ②All doctoral dissertations in the United States 2002-18, too much information, ③the most popular The beloved economic journal, the economist survey published, ④Islam government is not friendly to women friends? RDD classic literature, ⑤Continuous DID classic literature, Potatoes made the civilization of the old world, ⑥RDD classic literature, RDD model validity and robustness test, ⑦Little Nobel Prize latest research "What kind of family to go to school?", ⑧ more Classical literature of the DID model, explanation of big bad banks, ⑨AER establishment of causality, sensitivity test, heterogeneity analysis and cross-data use classic articles, ⑩Aid and Dutch disease, discovery of Wenchuan earthquake, causal inference literature, etc. .
Author: Hu earnings
Communications E-mail: [email protected]
Hello! I'm sorry to bother you, because I saw the articles published on the econometrics circle public account, and I hope to have the opportunity to go to the Frontier Literature Research Group to learn about the topic selection of doctoral dissertations in recent years.
Before reading this article, it is recommended to understand the measurement method of breakpoint regression design (RDD). For details, please refer to the following articles: 1. Breakpoint regression design RDD classification and operation cases, 2. RDD breakpoint regression, Stata program encyclopedia style Baodian, 3. Frontier research status of breakpoint regression design, RDD, 4. What the hell is breakpoint regression design? Let's listen to the analysis of Harvard guest, 5. Breakpoint regression and readers' questions and answers, 6. Comprehensive explanation of breakpoint regression design RDD, there are many users in the education field, 7. There are no instrumental variables, breakpoints and random impacts, and attribution can be inferred. , 8. What should I do if I can’t find IV, RD and DID? This is an alternative method, Volume 9.2 RDD Breakpoint Regression Manual, including Stata and R software operating procedures, 10. DID, synthesis control, matching, RDD four Comparison of methods, scope and characteristics, 11. Anshen + Clark Prize winner’s RDD paper, breakpoint regression design, 12. Is the Islamic government unfriendly to women friends? RDD classic literature, 13. PSM, RDD, Heckman, Panel model operating procedures, 14. RDD classic literature, RDD model validity and robustness test, 15. Interesting articles published on JDE in 2019, the latest trends in measurement methods.
The paper to be discussed in this article is Dell, M., Lane, N. and Querubin, P. (2018), The Historical State, Local Collective Action, and Economic Development in Vietnam. Econometrica, 86: 2083-2121. doi:10.3982/ ECTA15122
Part 1: Article Overview
The context of the article is very clear, mainly divided into six parts, the first part is the introduction, the second part is the historical background, the third part is the analytical framework, the fourth part is the long-term impact on economic growth, the fifth part is the mechanism, and the sixth part is the conclusion. This article discusses the situation 150 years after 1698. At that time, Vietnam and Cambodia were not called their current names. For simplicity, they are collectively referred to as Dai-Viet and Khmer (Dai-Viet we guess that Vietnam has a large Dai population , So here is transliterated as Dai Yue).
1 Introduction
The last century has witnessed large-scale differences in the economic prosperity of developing countries. In particular, the average development speed of the first poor economies in Northeast Asia (such as Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea) is much higher than that of Southeast Asian economies (such as the Philippines and Cambodia). ). A more important difference between these regions is the historical state of the country, but the factor of the historical state of the country is still more difficult to analyze. This article discusses the state of the country's history by analyzing Vietnam and Cambodia.
This article examines the border between Khmer and Dai Yue, which was established in 1698. Before the French colonization, the village on one side belonged to Dai Yue for more than 150 years, while the village on the other side belonged to Khmer (Khmer colonized by the country). The border created by this special situation made Dai Yue unable to conquer further Khmer territory, forming a relatively good breakpoint.
- History background
Northern Vietnam was ruled by China in the first millennium BC. After gaining independence, the Dai Viet state in northern Vietnam adopted the general political form of China, electing village bureaucrats by an examination system. In 1461, the system was reformed. Village councils were elected through a male villager election system, while state bureaucrats were still elected through an examination system. These policies have greatly improved the level of local governance. The village keeps a population and property inventory, and the cadastral record allows for the regular redistribution of land, and property taxes have been collected and subject to public supervision since the 1690s. For hundreds of years, Dai Yue has been expanding southward. The area under study belonged to Khmer at first, and was later occupied by Dai Yue and converted into an administrative village of Dai Yue. The rights and obligations of its citizens are the same as those of Dai Yue. In 1698, Dai Yue and Khmer clashed, and Dai Yue occupied the village on one side.
Compared with Dai Yue, Khmer has very few historical records. It is generally believed that the Khmer lack a centralized bureaucracy and that the state has weak control over the periphery. Southeast Asian historian Shawn McHale (2013) believes that in areas with limited national capacity (such as Khmer), farmers can escape state rule. In Khmer, political appointments and land distribution are individualized, and taxation is controlled by the temple system. The land-owning elites consolidated their claim to land by building temples. They used the temple to collect tributes from farmers and passed them to higher-level elites who legalized their possession of the land. In addition, Daiyue’s laws and regulations contain nearly 1,000 clauses, 15% of which are designed to protect the survival of independent farmers. Khmer laws and regulations focus on protecting the relationship between customers and customers.
Daiyue and Khmer are more widely represented in the civilizations of Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia. Asian societies are generally divided into two categories. Greater Vietnam, North Korea (North Korea), and Japan adopted a Chinese-style administrative bureaucracy system including an examination system. They have Chinese-style legal norms, are highly centralized, and the village is the basic administrative unit. These three countries established a tributary relationship with China at some point, and their political relationship prompted them to adopt China's governance system. Laos, Siam (Thailand), Bagan (Myanmar) and Khmer are influenced by Indian Buddhist rule and Indian elite culture. The bureaucracy lacks specialization, the central state has weak control over surrounding areas, and there is a gap between private and state affairs. The boundaries are blurred, and the stability of the regime depends to a large extent on the personality politics of the monarchy.
After the Second World War, Vietnam and France engaged in an anti-colonial struggle. The 1954 Geneva Agreement divided Vietnam into two regions on the 17th parallel line-North Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh, Communism) and pro-Western South Vietnam (Emperor Bao Da). In 1955, Wu Tingyan launched a coup in Saigon and established the Republic of Vietnam (called "South Vietnam"). On July 17, 1955, the United States tore up the "Geneva Agreement", replaced France's position in South Vietnam, established the so-called Republic of Vietnam, supported Wu Tingyan as president, and South Vietnam became a colony of the United States. The continuing conflict gradually escalated into the Vietnam War. The research area in this article is located in southern Vietnam. In 1967, South Vietnam underwent major constitutional reforms, decentralization, and new powers in the villages: control over local councils, and the ability to elect village councils and formulate local development projects. In 1976, Vietnam was unified but failed to collectivize the land in the south. The administrative hierarchy defines the financial relationship between the village and the central government, with provinces and districts in between. Fiscal management is carried out at the provincial level, while village organizations continue to play a role in the management of various services. Communists select officials. However, the locally elected village chiefs continue to exist as informal identities. They play an important role in local politics along with village-level party officials, even though the central government does not officially recognize them.
- Analytical framework and 4. Long-term impact on economic growth
The third and fourth parts studied the economic status changes of the villagers on both sides of the border after the Khmer-Dai border changes in 1698 through breakpoint regression. In 1698, Dai Yue sent troops to occupy part of the Dai Yue villages. These villages were initially loosely managed by Khmer (as above, Khmer’s management is loosely managed), and then taken over by Dai Yue. On both sides of the border, the villages on one side are owned by the Dais and the villages on the other are owned by the Khmer. The article divides the boundary area into a series of 10Km*10Km grids according to geographic location, as a unit, used for analysis; divides the boundary line into 25Km small sections, used to judge whether the village is on the boundary. 
Outv is income, DaiViet is the power of the village, Dai Yue is 1, Khmer is 0, dist_hcm is the distance between the village and Ho Chi Minh City, used to measure the control of the village by the political (economic) center.
Before regression, the article considered the self-selection of samples. According to previous documents, the village’s negative attitudes towards outsiders created a huge barrier to entry into the established village. Because outsiders will not obtain land ownership even if they enter the village, cross-border migration is considered to have a slight impact on the outcome. In addition, the “Racial Attitudes and Analysis Survey” conducted in the early 1970s found that only 21% and 12% were willing to move to other villages or provinces for higher-paying jobs. Census data indicate that the probability of mutual migration between Daiyue and Khmer is extremely low.
The article uses total consumption minus the transfer payment received to construct a consumption measurement. The data source is the Vietnam National Bureau of Statistics, with the assistance of the World Bank, from 2002 to 2012, collecting the Vietnamese Family Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) every two years. First, I did a test with different bandwidths, and the results were robust. Then add geographic information to do a three-dimensional test, and the fit is good. Afterwards, Ho Chi Minh City was deleted, and nearby villages bordered by rivers were deleted. Considering the immigration rate, the results were very stable. The article also considered three placebo trials (1) the area on both sides of the river but the regime did not change (2) the borders of the provinces in the study area (3) other historical areas where the Dais expanded southward, and the results were not significant. In summary, the main conclusion of this part is that on both sides of the border, the economic development level of the Daiyue region (measured by the consumption of villagers) is significantly better than that of the Khmer region, that is, the change of historical regime has had a significant impact on the economic level. But the conclusions in this part are based on current data (data from 2002 to 2012).
So if time is pushed forward, does the change of regime have a similar effect on the previous economic development? In 1885, the Sino-French War ended, and the Qing government signed the "Sino-French New Treaty" with France, giving up suzerainty over Vietnam, and Vietnam became a French colony. On July 17, 1955, the United States tore up the "Geneva Agreement", replaced France's position in South Vietnam, established the so-called Republic of Vietnam, supported Wu Tingyan as president, and South Vietnam became a colony of the United States. The continuing conflict gradually escalated into the Vietnam War. In history, Cambodia became a French protectorate in 1863 and was occupied by Japan in 1940. After Japan surrendered in 1945, it was reoccupied by France.
Colonization provides historical data for the study of current issues. The only source of existing village-level information is the maps saved by the French National Library in 1878, 1901, 1910 and 1926. Each map shows different types of infrastructure, especially roads, railways, telegraph lines, and military posts. The entire study area of the article is within the same colonial administrative unit. The colony’s state-owned and private companies seem to have invested in transportation and communication infrastructure in areas with the largest economic surplus. The author georeferenced these maps and intersected the village boundaries. During the South Vietnam period, the author obtained village income data through the "Resident Attitudes and Analysis Survey" (PAAS, National Archives RG 330). The survey was initiated by the United States and Vietnam in March 1970 and was conducted monthly until December 1972. Six villages in each province are randomly selected every month, 15 respondents are randomly selected from each village, and stratified sampling is performed based on demographic characteristics. The author also obtained various economic indicators from the "Hamlet Evaluation System" (HES, RG 472), which was jointly collected by the United States and South Vietnam between 1969 and 1973. HES contains economic, social, political and security information of villages in South Vietnam, and data is collected every quarter. The HES question has a clear answer. The author encodes questions with multiple answers as binary indicators. For example, the question about the supply of non-rice food is coded as no or limited supply or sufficient supply. In addition, the results report estimates of Bayesian potential categories. Based on current information, latent category analysis estimates the posterior probability of each village belonging to the "high" and "low" economic prosperity categories. Finally, the author also obtained district-level data on land ownership and rice cultivation after Vietnam's reunification from 1975 to 1985 from the provincial yearbook and decrypted documents of the Communist Party of Vietnam. All these historical data test results are consistent with the previous article, that is, the economic development level of Daiyue region is higher.
- Mechanism analysis
The conclusions obtained in the third and fourth parts indicate that the change of regime has indeed caused the economic development of the Dai and Yue area to be better than that of the Khmer area. So what mechanism does the change of regime use to affect economic development? The hypothesis of the article is that the governance of Dai Yue government transformed into local collective behavior, and local collective behavior (some governance policy guidelines, etc.) continued to exist in a series of turmoil, and may have an important impact on the provision of local public goods and economic development. The author believes that although local collective behavior is not the only mechanism that links historical regimes with long-term economic development levels, it is undoubtedly an important path.
There are three data sources for this part: local-level data on civil society, rural government, and public opinion compiled by the U.S. and South Vietnamese governments from 1969 to 1973; HES; and the Resident Attitudes and Analysis Survey (PAAS). The article assumes that historical regime changes affect the level of economic development by influencing local collective behavior. Local collective behavior consists of two parts, one is the village collective and civil society, and the other is the village collective and the local government. Village collectives influence citizen participation and economic development by participating in non-governmental organizations, economic training, people’s self-defense forces, and self-improvement projects; through cooperation with local governments, in taxation, village cadre election, government assistance and other governance levels, as well as health care, The supply of public goods such as education and law enforcement promotes economic prosperity. The author uses existing data to prove these conjectures.
6 Conclusion
The study used the breakpoint regression of the Dai-Vietnam-Khmer border to prove that over the past 150 years, areas under the rule of a centralized state now have higher living standards and better economic benefits. Historical data shows that in Daiyue villages (power concentration), local collectives better manage public goods and organize redistribution through civil society and local governments.
Centralized states will produce stronger collective actions in villages, and these norms will still exist long after the original state disappeared. This study provides a theory that the history of East Asian centralization has promoted local collective action, which may have caused the difference between the development of East Asian countries and other countries.
2. Literature review
By studying the border villages of Vietnam and Cambodia, the article discusses the relationship between regime change, collective action and economic development in history. The area studied first belonged to Khmer. The village on one side was occupied by Dai Yue in 1698, while the other side still belonged to Khmer. Later, Khmer became a French colony, so Dai Yue was unable to advance the border, leaving the border intact. This article first studied the relationship between the current (2002-2012 data) economic conditions and the border through breakpoint regression, and found that on both sides of the border, the Dai-yue side had better economic development. Through previous historical data (historical data during the French colonial period, historical data during the American colonial period, and data from the Viet Cong), it is found that the economic conditions of the Dais and Vietnam in history are better than those of the Khmer. Afterwards, the article puts forward the hypothesis that the historical regime change has an impact on economic development by influencing local collective actions, and it conducts data verification, and finally draws a conclusion.
I think this article belongs to the structure of substantiveism + statistical inference. The relationship between historical regime change, local collective action, and economic development is inferred through qualitative theory. The author first proposes that there is a certain relationship between historical regime changes and economic development, and uses the method of breakpoint regression (statistical inference) to verify it. These historical factors have provided a good quasi-natural experiment environment for verifying the relationship between regime change and economic development. After proving that the change of historical regime will have a certain impact on economic development, the author explored the path of influence. In the article, the author also mentioned that there are many ways in which regime change affects economic development, and local collective action is not the only influence mechanism. Although there are multiple paths of influence, it is undeniable that local collective action is one of the important paths. Subsequently, the author made a specific analysis of the local collective action path through qualitative theory, proposed two ways of influence by civil society and local government, and discussed in detail.
In terms of data, this paper uses maps saved by the French National Library in 1878, 1901, 1910 and 1926. Each map shows different types of infrastructure, roads, railways, telegraph lines, and military posts. The author georeferenced these maps and intersected the village boundaries. With the development of geographic history and metrological history, many previously unavailable data have more analytical methods, which also provide new directions and ideas for our future research.
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