China's fertility problem has finally stirred up waves.
There is a shortage of people in the world, and China's second-child opening policy has been in place since 2016. However, data shows that the birth population in 2016-2020 is 17.86 million, 17.23 million, 15.23 million, 14.65 million, and 10.35 million. However, the number of new-borns in 2020 is already lower than in the three-year difficult period. It is the highest in history, and it may be lower in the future.
Figure: Visual chart of birth population based on Smartbi big data analysis software
Not long ago, an article on China's population development written by China's Minister of Civil Affairs Li Jiheng caused a public uproar. The article clearly states: At present, affected by many factors, the Chinese population of the right age has low willingness to give birth, the total fertility rate has fallen below the warning line, and population development has entered a critical turning period. As we all know, we are still in a developing country, but our fertility rate is almost the same as that of the two developed countries, Japan and South Korea, that is, we often say that we get old before we have developed.
(Source: Network)
Many people may not understand the concept of total fertility rate, so let me popularize it first: the world’s average total fertility rate is 2.4; the international academic community generally believes that it is necessary to reach the normal level of "population replacement" and maintain the upper and lower generations. The population is basically stable, and the total fertility rate must reach at least 2.1. Minister Li mentioned that our country's total fertility rate has fallen below the "warning line = 1.8"! In other words, our fertility rate is lower than 1.8! The country’s low total fertility rate is equivalent to a nation’s chronic suicide. Presumably, the era of negative population growth in China in the future is not far away from us.
Presumably, many small partners may think that the global population of 7.5 billion, of which China’s population is 1.4 billion, is the most populous country in the world. The large population has caused such a lack of resources, the greenhouse effect, ecological imbalances, and frequent natural disasters. , Wouldn’t it be better to have a low fertility rate and a declining population?
However, at the same time, the aging of our country's population is also increasing. The aging rate of China's population far exceeds that of Europe, America and Japan, on an unprecedented scale. According to the China Development Report, China's population over 65 will account for 14% of the total population by around 2022, and will move from an aging society to an aging society.
(Source: NetEase Digital Reading)
At that time, the aging population and declining birthrate will bring a series of major and far-reaching challenges. The low-cost population dividend will disappear, labor costs will rise, the potential economic growth rate will decline, the young population will decline, the vitality of social innovation and entrepreneurship will decline, and the social class will be solidified. , The investment rate and savings rate have fallen, the social dependency ratio and pension burden have increased, government debt and social security pressure have risen, and so on. In the future, my country will encounter problems such as sudden population decline, production stagnation, and overcapacity. Will China's economy also enter a period of recession with no vitality?
Faced with crises that affect the development of the country, why do young people in China still dare and reluctant to give birth? In fact, it is not a problem of family planning for many years, but some real social problems.
According to Sematic's software Smartbi, there are 11 million single couples in the country, and about 1 million are willing to have a second child, but only about 470,000 are actually born. In fact, many young couples hope that they have both children, at least have two children, so that the children can take care of each other. But the fundamental reason for not daring to give birth is that the family situation is difficult to support the expenditure of the two children. This expenditure includes: economic aspects, energy aspects, and time aspects.
In fact, the main factor affecting the birth of a baby is economic factors.
According to Smartbi’s data analysis, the cost of raising a baby is so high that it can’t be afforded. Nowadays, most of the post-90s are only-child families, and the two couples have to bear the cost of supporting both parents. There are also high costs in first- and second-tier cities. Housing prices, and these are the sources of pressure that cause people to not want to have a baby.
China has fallen into the trap of low fertility rate. To reverse the trend of low fertility rate, we must first change the fertility policy. The crisis has already emerged, and it is hoped that in the future, the country can vigorously encourage childbirth under the premise of full liberalization of childbirth, effectively reduce the burden of raising ordinary families in terms of housing costs, parenting costs and education, and increase people's willingness to bear children independently.