A new era is kicking off.
On January 4, A shares ushered in the first trading day of 2021. On this day, CATL's stock price set off an astonishing increase on this first trading day, setting a new record high.
As of the close of the day, CATL’s share price rose 15.09% to close at 404.10 yuan, with a total market value of 941.34 billion yuan, which is only one step away from the trillion yuan mark.
What is supporting the sharp rise in the Ningde era? Has the "Ningde Era" arrived?
Behind the skyrocket, is it inevitable or accidental?
Looking back on the entire 2020, new energy vehicles, medicine and consumption are undoubtedly the main theme of this year.
However, after careful observation, we can find that behind the strong growth of the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors, there is an extremely solid support to promote high growth.
Whether it is the huge promotion effect of the epidemic that raged at the beginning of last year on the pharmaceutical sector, or the huge demand for consumption by residents after the epidemic subsided, good performance growth and environmental factors have combined to have a strong performance of these two sectors in 2020.
On the other hand, the growth rate of new energy vehicles is equally astonishing, but the support behind its growth is not clear. If this is the case, what is it that "blown" the Ningde era's market value of nearly one trillion?
Throughout 2020, CATL’s share price has risen by more than 230%. This is due to the continuous enlargement of the prospects of the entire new energy vehicle industry, which has helped to a certain extent the market value of CATL.
Supporting the high market value of the Ningde era is based on the combined effect of two factors.
The first is that fuel vehicles are entering the process of accelerated elimination.
From a global perspective, it has become a consensus to completely phase out fuel vehicles. As a traditional industry with many years of history, fuel vehicles occupy a huge market share.
In the domestic market alone, there are approximately 275 million vehicles in the country. As the domestic progress in the elimination of fuel vehicles increases, the future market share of new energy vehicles will also expand. In addition, favorable policies will further accelerate the growth of the domestic new energy vehicle market.
"Carbon peak, carbon neutral", according to the goal of this policy, it is estimated that by 2030, the country will achieve the peak of carbon emissions, and carbon emissions and consumption will reach a balance state in 2060. This means that the withdrawal of fuel vehicles is accelerating, and the rise of new energy vehicles is accelerating.
Another factor lies in the frenzy of the domestic new energy vehicle market.
It can be said that the growth of the Ningde era was shaped by the rapid growth of the domestic new energy vehicle market. With the continuous expansion of the domestic new energy vehicle market, the Ningde era, which has mastered the top technology of lithium batteries, has become the biggest winner in this upsurge.
As the world's second largest new energy vehicle market, the enthusiastic atmosphere of the domestic market has a strong impetus for the production of power batteries in the Ningde era. This is also the driving force behind CATL's ability to attack the trillions of market value.
But it still needs to be noted that the current heat of the entire new energy vehicle market has reached a very high level. This growth is largely based on the prediction of its huge future market.
At present, the new energy vehicle market has not shown the high growth it deserves, but the fanatical mood has overshadowed its original appearance. In the frenetic atmosphere, the Ningde era, which is the "heart" part of the manufacturing of new energy vehicles, has also been affected by this sentiment to a certain extent.
Ningde era stock price growth is a combination of the good prospects of new energy vehicles and related policy factors. Growth is inevitable, and this is also determined by the development trend. The point is that this growth has also been affected by market sentiment, and fanatical sentiment amplifies the inevitable growth, resulting in today's amazing increase.
Today's Ningde era has become the leader in power batteries, but today's fanaticism has overdrawn its future growth to a certain extent. The bubble in the new energy vehicle market has enveloped the Ningde era. For investors, risks have already appeared.
Where will the end of the "Ningde Era" be?
It has become inevitable for new energy vehicles to replace fuel-fueled vehicles. This is not only the driving force of policies, but also the development of technology and consumers' demand for electric vehicles.
Before 2020, CATL firmly controlled the world's largest power battery installed capacity, and in China, it controlled half of the country's power battery installed capacity. According to statistical data, in 2019, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries, CATL accounted for 51.8% of the total installed capacity with 32.31GWh, and it ranked first for three consecutive years; and BYD, ranked second, was only 1% of CATL. /3.
Source: Gaogong Lithium Battery
But now, the "dominant" status of the Ningde era is being challenged. In the first half of 2020, LG Chem surpassed the Ningde era and took the top spot in the global installed capacity. Although the Ningde era has regained its throne afterwards, it can be seen that the top position of the Ningde era is suffering a lot. Challenges of competitors.
According to data released by South Korea's SNE Research on October 5, the global installed capacity of power batteries in August was 10.8GWh. CATL ranked first in the world with 2.8GWh installed, with a market share of 25.9%. LG Chem ranked second, accounting for 22.2% of the global installed market share with 2.4GWh of installed capacity.
Ningde era can sit on the throne, and it is inseparable from its many strong partners . Tesla, Volkswagen, BMW, and many new Chinese automakers are all customers of the Ningde era. In particular, the Model 3 model is Tesla's best-selling model, and its domestic version is used by CATL as the battery supplier. At the same time, cooperation with established manufacturers such as Volkswagen and BMW is conducive to the expansion of the Ningde era in the international market.
The core of the power battery industry lies in technology. As a top power battery manufacturer, the battery products produced by CATL have been widely recognized by the market and users. The rapid growth of the CATL is due to its strong technological advantages in battery manufacturing. Today, CATL is already the world's largest manufacturer of automotive batteries, occupying the throat of the entire new energy automotive industry chain.
However, the head position of the Ningde era is under attack.
In fact, CATL has been able to occupy the top spot for many years in a row, largely due to its extremely high share in the world's second largest new energy vehicle market in China. With policy support, the CATL has not been harassed by strong competitors in the domestic market for a long time.
In the past few years, domestic policy subsidies for new energy vehicles have been bundled with the power battery manufacturers that they use. Only batteries equipped with battery "whitelisted" companies can receive subsidies. Policy support has provided sufficient development space for the Ningde era, so that it can develop rapidly and successfully reach the top position.
With the liberalization of foreign-funded batteries, the Ningde era, which has no rivals in China, will be strongly blocked by foreign-funded battery manufacturers. In June 2019, the power battery "white list" was announced to be abolished, and foreign battery companies have no obstacles in entering the domestic market. As the leader of the Ningde era, it is the first to usher in the "collision" of foreign battery companies.
In the technology-driven industry of power batteries, the competition between battery manufacturers is a competition for technical strength. In the "white list" period, the Ningde era, which relied on technical strength to occupy half of the country, has shown a certain decline.
For the power battery industry, the longer delivery time means that today's market share is actually the data a year or more ago. It now appears that CATL can still maintain its current position by relying on the huge order reserve in the domestic market. In this increasingly competitive power battery market, how long can the Ningde era maintain its momentum? Now that we see, hidden dangers still exist.
The leading position of automobile batteries in the Ningde era has begun to be shaken. After losing the blessing of the "whitelist", in this market where technology is the core driving force, the Ningde era can only continuously increase its investment in technology to continue to maintain its technological leadership. Advantages to maintain their leading position.
Market value is not the focus of the Ningde era. If you lose the advantage of leading technology, even the trillions of market capitalization will be nothing more than passing away.
Ningde era, which is overly dependent on the domestic market, how to expand overseas markets is the key to growth
It is undeniable that Ningde era stock price rise has such capital. Whether it is related to power battery technology or production capacity, CATL has opened up the entire vertical chain of battery production.
For the current Ningde era, the biggest threat may be LG's eye-catching eyes. With a small gap in technology and production capacity, LG is undoubtedly the strongest competitor in the Ningde era.
Before the "white list" has disappeared, relying on the Ningde era in the domestic market, it can maintain its leading position. After the "white list" disappeared, the Ningde era was forced to go hand-in-hand with LGs.
The current Ningde era relies too much on the domestic market, and in the other two major new energy vehicle markets in Europe and the United States, the Ningde era has shown "unacceptable". The domestic market is being eroded by foreign battery manufacturers, and the expansion of foreign markets is not smooth.
Although only relying on the domestic market, the Ningde era can survive like a fish in water. Without the protection of the "white list", the stable position of the Ningde era in the domestic market will be severely impacted. To achieve greater development goals, for the CATL, the expansion of the external market has no time to delay.
The Ningde era, which has reached the trillion mark, has surpassed the former energy giant PetroChina. In the Ningde era, which is standing on the edge of trillions, the upper limit is not limited to the trillions mark. However, the current era that belongs to the Ningde era has not yet arrived, and there is still a long way to go before the curtain of this era can be opened.
Article source: Songguo Finance, please indicate the copyright for reprinting.