Following the release of the financial report, SF Express launched a low-key community group purchase product "Fenghuotai".
In the past, there were traditional community group buying players such as Prosperity Optimal Group, Shihui Group, and Food Sharing Club as pioneers. Later, there were Internet giants, chain supermarkets, e-commerce platforms, and front warehouse players waiting for opportunities.
Is there any chance for SF Express to enter the game at this time? SF Express, whose stock price is rising, is going to be smooth sailing in the future?
Community group buying "heart is not dead", SF Express is to strive for the top
"Fenghuotai" is not the first community group buying product launched by SF Express. Before the community group buying became popular, SF Express had tried the field of community group buying through projects such as "Heike" and "SF Optimal". Ended with failure.
However, community group buying is an important means to win the front-end traffic of home users. Any giant and the capital behind it will not easily give up. The "restless" SF Express will naturally not miss this wave of community group buying.
From the current point of view, "Fenghuotai" has also made a difference in the early stage: the leader is not a professional leader, but the SF Express brother in the jurisdiction; "Fenghuotai" preferentially chooses to occupy first-tier cities such as "Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen" , Instead of taking the route of "surrounding the city from the countryside"; "Fenghutai" does not adopt the community self-promotion, but chooses to deliver the goods to the door.
These differences also make "Fenghutai" look so different. So, how does SF Express become "Fenghuotai"?
SF Express has many advantages as a "Fenghutai". First of all, the natural fit between the delivery terminal and the distribution of the community group purchase pick-up points can reduce the marginal cost. Secondly, SF Express's mature logistics supply chain system and superior fresh cold chain transportation technology have formed SF Express's natural advantages. In particular, the supply chain of specialty agricultural products such as hairy crabs, winter fishing, tea, beef and mutton makes "Fenghutai" more competitive.
The "Fenghutai" project integrates SF's supply chain, traffic, stores and other resources, allowing SF to make the best use of the existing logistics supply chain resources, and it can also lay out and extend the agricultural industry chain. "Fenghuotai" gives SF Express more room for imagination in the future.
But "Fenghutai" also has some obvious disadvantages . First, there are fewer SKUs in the station, only about a hundred pieces, which is a clear gap with the giants; secondly, most of the goods on "Fenghutai" are retail boxes, which are only suitable for wholesale or family packaging; in addition, community group buying is aimed at price-sensitive types Customers, and SF Express’s business is still mostly business or high-end consumption scenarios.
In addition, I have to mention that community group buying is too popular, and "Fenghuotai" came too late. But compared with the previous high-profile market competition and low-price competition among giants, SF Express is too low-key.
But in any case, the energetic SF Express got a shining financial report in the express delivery industry, and then got involved in the giant's community group buying. So, is SF really worthy?
The market value exceeds 450 billion yuan. Why does SF Holdings lead the express delivery industry?
In the express business, SF Express has always been synonymous with high quality. According to the results of the 2020 express service satisfaction survey released by the State Post Bureau: SF Express was rated as the number one satisfaction rate. In addition, SF Express is also a success in its financial report.
In terms of revenue, relying on continuous business innovation, management dividends and continuous release of capacity resources. According to the December 2020 business briefing released by SF Holdings, revenue in December reached 15.606 billion yuan, a record high and a year-on-year increase of 31.74%. The business volume was 870 million votes, a year-on-year increase of 48.97%. In 2020, SF Holdings achieved operating income of 151.743 billion yuan, compared with 110.902 billion yuan in 2019, a growth rate of 36.83%. The business volume achieved 8.137 billion votes, an increase of 68.47% from the 4.83 billion votes in 2019.
Regardless of the December or full year data, SF Express's revenue and volume growth continued to exceed the industry average. According to statistics from the State Post Bureau, in December, the business volume of express service companies across the country completed 9.25 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 37.4%; business income was 92.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%. In 2020, the total business volume of express service companies across the country will be 83.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.2%; the cumulative business income will be 879.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%.
Among them, SF Holdings has grown significantly in express logistics and supply chain business. In December 2020, express logistics business revenue reached 14.738 billion yuan, an increase of 30.77% year-on-year, and its supply chain business exceeded 800 million yuan, a new high for the year, reaching 868 million yuan, an increase of 50.69% year-on-year. The growth was mainly attributable to the high growth of time-sensitive products, special-purpose products and other new businesses.
The substantial growth in the supply chain business has also given SF Express the courage to enter the community group buying. SF Express is also constantly increasing its advantages in the supply chain. On January 19 this year, Fengnong Technology (a subsidiary of SF Holdings) and Qilu Quanyuan Supply Chain Co., Ltd. officially announced that they will cooperate to build the first SF fresh produce supply chain center in Shandong Province with a planned total investment of 2.3 billion yuan.
In addition, SF Express has also launched new businesses. This year, SF Airlines announced the entry of its 62nd all-cargo aircraft, and SF Express has officially put into operation on the route. While enhancing SF Express’s aging business strength, it will provide more B-end enterprises and international businesses with greater service and business space. This has added SF's imagination, and other new businesses are also moving forward.
In terms of net profit, the net profit of SF Holdings in the first three quarters of 2020 was about 5.598 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.84%; basic earnings per share were 1.26 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.57%. In the express market share, SF Express has been hovering around 10%. Performs well in the Tongda department.
The main business lines are progressing in an orderly manner, and the stock price and market value of SF Holdings have also risen. On January 21, SF Holdings stood at the 100 yuan mark for the first time, and its share price hit a record high with a market value of over 460 billion yuan. As of press time, the stock price of SF Holdings is 101.75 yuan per share, an increase of 8.26%, and the market value reaches 463.9 billion yuan.
The stock price is like a "roller coaster". Is SF Express really big?
Affected by the "private equity withdrawal" some time ago, SF Holdings' share price plunged. Recently, due to high performance, the stock price has continued to rise. The "roller coaster" performance of the capital market shocked the spectators.
However, this also confirms from the side that SF Holdings is not as good as it seems. Although he has strong strength in the express market, many new situations have emerged.
(1) The growth rate has slowed down, and the price of a single ticket has continued to fall. According to the financial report data previously announced by SF Express, the growth rate of its total revenue in Q1-Q3 in 2020 will be 39.59%, 44.31%, and 34.04%, respectively. In December, revenue reached 15.606 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.74%. From this data, it is not difficult to see that after a brief increase in its growth rate, it has begun to decline significantly.
In addition, the price of a single ticket has also fallen all the way. According to relevant financial report data, the single ticket revenue of SF Holdings dropped from 24.93 yuan per unit in 2019Q3 to 17.84 yuan in 2020Q3, a year-on-year decrease of 23.89%; the December 2020 business briefing shows: SF Express’s single ticket price Fell more than 10%,
This is mainly because of the impact of the "price war". In addition to SF Express, other companies have not been spared. According to the business briefing just released in December 2020, the single ticket revenue of Shentong and Yunda also dropped by more than 25% year-on-year. While e-commerce is expanding its revenue, it also consumes the overall profitability to some extent.
(2) The traditional express business is facing the ceiling of the industry, and the price war is getting fiercer. Although the express delivery industry has maintained rapid growth in 2020, each express delivery company has fallen into the dilemma of not increasing revenue; in order to increase revenue, express companies want to cut from logistics to business flow, and competition extends beyond the industry. In addition, Tongda companies are racing to increase the high-end aging parts market, which poses a certain challenge to SF Express's position in the high-end market.
(3) In order to break the growth bottleneck of the industry, SF Express has been unsuccessful in going upstream in the industry repeatedly. SF Express has entered into new sectors such as e-commerce, intra-city, express, pharmaceuticals, etc., striving to develop the second growth curve. Since 2009, SF Express has successively launched its e-commerce business "SF E Business District", "SF Best Choice", offline stores "Hey Customer", unmanned shelves "Fun E Sudden Food", and corporate group meals "Feng Shi" Applets. But it didn't seem to arouse many waves.
Compared with Cainiao, JD Logistics, and Suning Logistics, SF Express’s weakness is that there is no stable backing behind it. From "Hey Customer" to SF Express’s preferred, to today’s "Fenghutai", with the help of the deep foundation laid in the logistics circle, SF Express has repeatedly extended its tentacles to the upstream business flow but has not been successful. This has become the "heart disease" of SF Express.
Moreover, now express companies are eyeing this market. As early as 2019, Zhongtong Commercial (subsidiary of Zhongtong Express Group) had strategically invested in the community group buying platform Soonongfang, and Cainiao Station had sounded the clarion call to enter the local life service industry. In addition, Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Best Express have also repeatedly reported that express franchise sites test the water community group buying business. Doing well is something later, but SF Express now needs to get off the court quickly.
In fact, "Fenghuotai" is very important to SF Express, not only because of SF's position in the community group buying market during "Fenghuotai", but more importantly, it is another attempt by SF Express to move toward upstream "business flow". . It is an all-out attack by SF Express to build a complete ecosystem in the commercial landscape.
But at this time, SF Express's entry may be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. On December 22, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the Ministry of Commerce organized an administrative guidance meeting to regulate the order of community group purchases, and the meeting introduced the "nine no" community group purchase rules. The "Nine No" new regulations restrict community group buying from 9 aspects such as commodity prices, market monopoly, restriction of competition, and big data.
While guiding the community’s group buying business to be more standardized, the new "Nine Musts" regulations have also made e-commerce and Internet giants on the field be cautious. Compared with the previous giants’ needle-pointing to the wheat, new players may enter or even seek The best chance for overtaking in a curve.
But in the field of e-commerce business, SF Express needs to learn more about the needs of end customers and constantly explore e-commerce logic that suits it. The market may not leave too many opportunities for express companies. Compared with the highlight moments shown in the financial report, what should be seen is the crisis that SF Express cannot resolve behind the bet on "Fenghuotai".
Author: rather lack
Article source: Songguo Finance, please indicate the copyright for reprinting.