Text/Mantis Finance (ID: TanglangFin)
Author/Yimou
In China, there are many names for electric bicycles.
In the official context, it is called a two-wheeled electric car; in the mouths of Zhou and other businessmen, it is called a battery car; in the cities of the eighteenth-line small county, it is directly called an electric car; and in petty-bourgeois environmentalism In the crowd, it is also called a small electric donkey.
Why is it difficult to unify the caliber?
After all, this kind of transportation is too complicated. Take the various phenomena in 2020 as an example-it is common, but it is disliked by the traffic management of big cities; it is more upscale than bicycles, but it is the object of the consumption upgrade revolution; it seems backward, but the sales are hot and the capital is competing to enter the game. .
In 2020, what's wrong with your electric bicycle?
The industry is rapidly becoming "sexy", and dividends and differentiation proceed simultaneously
In 2020, the subversion of public perception of electric bicycles probably started from the stock market.
Since the beginning of this year, the stock market’s best track is none other than new energy vehicles. Tesla 7 times a year, Weilai 25 times a year, Ideal and Xiaopeng have tripled in 3 months after being listed... New energy vehicles are crazy. , Its "relatives" electric bicycles are not bad either.
There are 3 companies listed on electric bicycles. Since the beginning of this year, Mavericks Electric has more than tripled, Yadea Holdings has increased by more than 8 times, and Xinri shares have also more than doubled. On November 26, Emma electric car also caught up with Dongfeng, successfully passed the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and will be listed soon.
In addition to the feast of the capital market, other electric vehicles such as Xinri, Lima, Lvyuan, Taiwan Bell, Xiaodao, Jinjian, Lvjia, etc., have a very moist life, ushering in the biggest policy red envelope-the new national standard.
The new national standard affects the country.
For a long time, electric bicycles have been on the streets, especially in recent years, safety accidents have gradually increased, major manufacturers have been deeply involved in price wars, and the entire industry is chaotic and disordered.
On April 5, 2019, the "new national standard" for electric bicycles officially landed, stipulating that the bicycle must have the ability to ride on foot, and the design speed must not exceed 25km/h, the gross weight must not exceed 55kg, and the battery must not exceed 48V.
The “new national standard” seems to put a heavy shackle on electric bicycles, but in fact it is to improve safety and eliminate low and backward production capacity . The target is the power lead-acid electric bicycles that have fought price wars in recent years. This model has a gross weight More than 55KG, in 2019, domestic sales of 34.64 million electric vehicles, accounting for 97%.
In other words, the sales of the only lithium-ion electric bicycles that meet the new regulations are only about 3%, which is only about 1 million.
In this context, all manufacturers of electric bicycles on the market must either strive to meet the standard, or apply for a catalog of electric motorcycles with a more difficult living condition, otherwise they can only be eliminated from the industry.
This is a big red envelope, but due to the different implementation of policies in various regions, the transition period generally ranges from 3 to 5 years, so the dividends are also paid in 3 to 5 years. However, as long as they are capable manufacturers, they have already begun to deploy, and they will be reflected in 2020 through data such as research and development and sales.
As a result, the industry has experienced great differentiation in 2020:
On the one hand, according to statistics, domestic electric bicycle manufacturers have dropped sharply from the 1,000 or so in previous years to the only 170 remaining (at the same time they have qualifications for the production of electric bicycles, electric mopeds, and electric motorcycles). The market and small workshops specializing in low-end products were forced to close, and small and medium-sized manufacturers were gradually cleared out.
On the other hand, Mavericks, Yadi, Emma, Xinri, Luyuan, Tailing, Green Energy, etc. have realized the lithium battery of electric vehicles, the corresponding leading market share is 73%, Yadi, Tailing, Luyuan, Xin The market share of Japanese brands was close to 60% in 2018.
According to data from the JD platform, online sales of electric bicycles increased by more than 50% in May this year. During the 618 promotion period, sales of Mavericks electric bicycles, Xiaodao electric bicycles, and Emma electric bicycles all doubled.
Especially after the second quarter of this year, many electric vehicle brands have ushered in explosive growth in sales. According to data, as of the end of November, Yadi electric vehicle sales reached 10 million, exceeding the 6.09 million in 2019. In the first three quarters, the sales of Xinri electric vehicles increased by 78.54% compared with the same period last year, and the sales of Mavericks electric vehicles increased by 43.2% compared with the same period last year. Many people in charge of electric car brands said that in the third quarter after the epidemic, even one car was hard to find.
In addition, according to data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first 10 months of this year, China's electric bicycles have produced 25.48 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33.4%. CITIC Research Institute estimates that the "new national standard" will bring the estimated total replacement demand for electric bicycles to reach a peak of nearly 30 million in 2022.
Epidemic and tariffs unexpectedly wake up overseas markets
For a long time, most of the eyes of electric bicycles going overseas have focused on Southeast Asia, Europe and the United States.
Moreover, business development is also very difficult.
"Mantis Finance" believes that, on the one hand, trade barriers are too thick.
As early as two years ago, the European Union increased temporary tariffs on China's electric bicycle exports. As long as China exports electric bicycles, they will face a tariff of no more than 37%. The Trump administration also approved a 25% tariff on China's electric bicycles in 2018.
This is especially true in Southeast Asia. Tariffs on the two rounds of electric vehicles are generally high. The import tariffs of Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines are as high as 50%, 45% and 30%, respectively. India’s local protectionism is more serious, which basically isolates Chinese manufacturers from entering. .
On the other hand, travel habits vary greatly from place to place.
Taking Southeast Asia as an example, the penetration rate of gasoline motorcycles is extremely high. In 2019, the annual sales of motorcycles in Southeast Asia was nearly 40 million. Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand, the top three motorcycles by ownership, have about 60 million, 45 million, and 3,000 respectively. In 2019, the sales of motorcycles in the three countries reached 649, 3.26, and 1.72 million.
In such a market, the promotion of electric vehicles is undoubtedly a gradual process, which is greatly related to the local economic development and infrastructure.
Similarly, in Europe and the United States, the popularity of cars is higher in developed regions, and those who choose two-wheel travel are mostly for environmental protection, sports, and short-distance travel purposes, and there is not much demand for electric vehicles. Taking Europe as an example, the total demand in 2019 will be 3.7 million vehicles.
Combining two major reasons, it has always been difficult for electric bicycles to go to sea. Taking 2019 as an example, China’s export volume of electric bicycles was 1.453 million units, a decrease of 22.6% compared to 2018.
In 2020, these two major issues have undergone tremendous changes.
First, tariffs on electric bicycles in Southeast Asia will drop.
According to the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP) signed on November 15, Indonesia and Vietnam will lower the tariffs on Chinese exports of two-wheelers. Tariffs on motorcycles exported to Indonesia will be reduced to zero tariffs next year, some will be reduced to zero tariffs in 15 years, and most of the tariffs on motorcycles exported to Vietnam will be reduced to zero tariffs in 20 years.
Note that this is for "two-wheelers", electric motorcycles and electric bicycles are also included. The reduction of tariffs will directly promote domestic manufacturers to respond to the needs of the Southeast Asian market and benefit related manufacturers to go overseas.
Second, the epidemic has changed the way people in Europe and the United States travel and has also awakened related needs.
Take Mavericks as an example. In 2019, overseas sales accounted for 14.9%, but by the first quarter of 2020, the sales data directly jumped to 28.9%, and the export products were mainly concentrated in high-end models with 10,000 to 30,000 yuan.
In addition, European countries have gradually "unblocked" after May, and the government has also encouraged bicycle travel. About a dozen countries and regions including France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria and Belgium have initiated subsidy programs.
For example, Italy is up to 500 euros, France is 400 euros, and the Netherlands subsidizes more than 30%. According to AliExpress, the sales of bicycles in the Spanish market in May increased by more than 22 times year-on-year, Italy increased by nearly 9 times, the UK increased by 8 times, France increased by 3.8 times, Spain increased by 2.8 times, and Russia increased sharply. 60 times, sales in the United States tripled, and demand in all countries fell short of demand.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, foreign markets have become a major driving force for my country's electric bicycle production and sales in 2020. From January to October, the export volume of electric motorcycles and bicycles reached 13.82 million units, a year-on-year increase of 41.7%.
With the advancement of RCEP and the normalization of the epidemic, electric bicycle manufacturers are still sprinting on the road to sea.
Triple challenges are testing the ceiling of the industry
On the whole, two-wheeled electric vehicles have suffered the three magical experiences of dividends, differentiation and accidents in this year. 2020 is about to pass, and the voice of doubt from the outside world has begun.
"Mantis Finance" believes that it faces three major challenges.
1) The first challenge: falling in love and killing with shared motorcycles, ambiguous and guarded.
Even people in small cities with the 18th tier know that electric bicycles face a barbarian-shared motorcycles. Just like the revolution of shared bicycles to bicycles a few years ago, electric bicycles have begun to be gradually spread across the country by shared electric bicycles.
Currently, manufacturers such as Haro, Meituan, Didi, Xiaoyu, Mango, Xiaomiao, Bee, Xiaolu, Xiaopin, Street Bunny, etc. have all joined the shared bicycle war. Meituan even directly stated at the financial report meeting in Q1 2020 that it believes that this business may be a profitable business in the next few years, and will continue to launch hundreds of thousands of electric bicycles in the second quarter for initial exploration.
According to incomplete statistics, in June 2020, the average daily order volume of Haro motorcycles is about 4 million, and that of Didi and Meituan will reach 3 million and 1 million daily orders respectively. In 2020, both Haro and Didi plan to release more than 100 10,000 motorcycles, Meituan plans to release 2 million.
This also means that a new round of sharing wars has begun, which will inevitably erode the sales market of electric bicycles. However, there is another BUG here-Internet companies are okay in operating, and car building must be outsourced, right?
As a result, the two opposing industries became ambiguous again. For example, Xinri shares disclosed in Hudongyi that as of April 20, the company has obtained orders from group buying customers to be delivered in the second quarter of about 300,000 vehicles and related accessories. The total order amount is about 880 million yuan.
In other words, the east side is not bright and the west side is bright. These traditional electric bicycle manufacturers have turned their business to B. The same is true for receiving more group purchase orders for shared motorcycles. It is nothing more than losing some bargaining power, for most of the production capacity. For enough manufacturers, this might not be a good business.
The only thing that needs to be vigilant is that orders from shared bicycle companies are not sustainable. For example, on November 27th, Li Kaizhu, CEO of Haro Travel, revealed at a forum that Haro Travel will enter the household two-wheeled electric vehicle business, launching two-wheel smart "new species", and it is expected that the first generation of smart products will be It will be launched early next year, revealing the possibility of "self-built factory".
2) The second challenge is that the high-end will not rise and the added value will be low.
Two-wheel electric vehicles are far from comparable to four-wheel electric vehicles in terms of entry barriers and technical content. Even for some special enterprises, it is not too difficult to cross-border electric bicycles.
Even the "new force of car building" Mavericks in two-wheeled electric vehicles, it uses innovative features such as trendy shapes, electric vehicle APP, smart sensors, etc., are extremely easy to be imitated and plagiarized, especially the upstream lithium of the Ningde era. When battery manufacturers join forces with competitors, the moat will become narrower.
Moreover, the two-wheeler has strong functional characteristics, especially the target audience and usage scenarios, which determines that its commercial imagination has huge limitations. This limitation is not only reflected in the low unit price of vehicles, but also in software payment and Internet of Vehicles. And other emerging business models can generate low value.
This also means that intelligence, a technology that has a revolutionary significance for automobiles, has a discount on the value of two-wheelers.
From another point of view, if a certain industry wants to produce a high-end product, it must find its needs beyond rigid functions. For example, Europe and the United States are environmental protection and fitness, while the Chinese consumption concept cannot reach this in the short term. One level.
Perhaps, one day when everyone can confidently show their own calf key to the mother-in-law, that is the high-end electric bicycle.
3) The third challenge: high pressure in first- and second-tier cities is contrary to urban management
In China, urbanization and consumption upgrades have always been two big mountains on top of electric bicycles.
The "motor ban" in some cities has not yet been released. Even some small 18th-tier cities require electric bicycles to be licensed, driving licenses, etc., which are extremely restrictive. Its future depends on the transportation department, city management, manufacturers and users. Game.
As early as March 2016, Shenzhen launched the "Motorcycle ban and electricity restriction" rectification action. In the first 10 days, 17,975 electric vehicles were seized and 874 people were detained, including several courier and takeaway brothers. Public opinion.
In early January 2017, the "No. 7 Motorcycle" launched 400 shared motorcycles in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, and the traffic control department ordered them to be withdrawn on the first day they landed. In Beijing, Xiaomi electric cars and electric zebras also encountered similar experiences.
In short, first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have always discouraged the development of electric bicycles. Even if residents buy and use them by themselves, there are strict regulations and controls on charging and driving.
Take Changsha as an example. On November 23, the three departments of Changsha City’s transportation, traffic police, and urban management intensively interviewed six shared electric bicycle companies, including walking and sharing, meow, Hello Travel, Qingju, Meituan, and Xibaoda. The above-mentioned enterprises cleaned up and recycled unlicensed electric bicycles, and started a new round of centralized rectification.
As the "relatives" of shared motorcycles, electric bicycles are also "favorable". It is unknown whether they will be boiled by warm water.
With high-frequency safety accidents, urban congestion, and the popularization of private cars, the restrictions on electric bicycles may be further restricted, similar to the example of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which does not rule out being followed by more first- and second-tier cities.
Conclusion
2020 is the most special year in the history of electric bicycles.
Whether it is being cleared or eating big dividends, companies in this industry must face an inflection point. Historical experience tells us that every time a dividend period is ushered in, a new round of fierce competition is inevitable, and one to three leading manufacturers are finally competed.
And the short-term policies and the dividends brought by the epidemic are exhausted, how should they deal with it?
*The pictures in this article are from the Internet
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