With a series of adjustments and regulations of Filecoin, when the Filecoin mainnet is finally online, investors of Filecoin mining machines, cloud computing power, futures and other related products, as well as the players of the upstream and downstream participants in the industry chain, also breed different Emotions and judgments reflect the dilemma that Filecoin has encountered.
Author|Wang Dashu
Edit | Gong Quanyu
Year after year, the Filecoin mainnet, launched in 2014, finally ushered in the official launch today, with its grand decentralized storage narrative to accept the public's practical test and launch its new development process.
Prior to this, Filecoin, as the “top stream” in the industry, has gathered a large-scale industry chain, but the repeated delays in launch time not only seriously affected the interests of the participants, but also reflected the difficulties of the project in the development process.
Judging from this year alone, Filecoin's mainnet launch time has been postponed at least 4 times, and almost every postponement will give different reasons, such as the negative impact of the epidemic on the resumption of miners, safety still needs to be tested repeatedly, and the calibration period is added to debug new functions. However, one of the most important reasons considered by the outside world is that the economic model of the incentive layer is uncertain. Filecoin's miner pledge ratio, reward coefficient and other core data have caused many controversies in the industry until the eve of its launch, which reflects Filecoin as a huge ecology The huge problem faced by the system: how to ensure the security and stability of the storage system while balancing the interests of different parties.
Along with Filecoin's series of adjustments and regulations, investors of Filecoin mining machines, cloud computing power, futures and other related products, as well as the upstream and downstream participants of the industry chain, also breed different emotions and judgments, and reflect the difficulties encountered by Filecoin.
Tucao from Filecoin-related communities
01
Futures players: have sold, wait for the short market after going online
Although the pre-collateralized currency problem is expected to be resolved in the future, from the perspective of market value, the total number of FIL coins is 2 billion. Based on the non-small current price of about 30 US dollars, the valuation is about 60 billion US dollars, which has exceeded the global ranking. The second-ranked Ethereum is second only to the first-ranked Bitcoin.
"Even if the initial liquidity of FIL is very small, once the private and public offering phases are unlocked, FIL is likely to usher in selling pressure. Currently, the number of participants in the private equity stage of Filecoin is 143, and the per capita holdings of FIL are 638,000, and the average cost is $0.57; The number of participants in the stage is 2,318, and the per capita holdings are 25,700 FIL, and the average cost is $2.58; if the former is shipped at the current price of 33 knives, the market selling pressure will equal about 140 million yuan; the latter at the current price of 33 knives, the market The selling pressure will be RMB 5.5-6 million.” An exchange insider He He (pseudonym) analyzed this.
He also said frankly that on the first day of the mainnet launch, there will be 239,000 FILs to be sold. Assuming that the unit price is 30U, the released circulation will be 50 million yuan. Assuming the unit price remains unchanged, the market will be similar on the 10th day. The release of 500 million yuan will most likely be unsustainable.
Perhaps futures holders are also aware of this, and most of the futures players known by the chain catcher have already cleared their positions.
"I bought futures at the gate at the bottom. I bought 1,000 FIL currencies. Later, I gradually increased the position to 100,000. The overall holding cost was reduced to about 50 yuan. I took it for 4 months at a unit price of 138 yuan. The position is cleared." Macbeth, a FIL futures player, told Chaincatcher that he has held FIL futures since March and experienced the fourth delay of the Filecoin mainnet launch during the holding period.
Macbeth further stated that there were three main reasons for his liquidation. The first is that I felt disappointed by the frequent official bounced votes in the community with group friends; the second is that I saw friends who made money by reselling mining machines in the air outlet but were not optimistic about the project; the third is that During the holding period, I checked the information related to Filecoin and IPFS, and realized the great vision and technical bottleneck.
Like Macbeth’s strategy, player Jin Jing also chose to sell futures on October 14. "Although the vision is good, it is not a good investment opportunity for ordinary users at this stage. Maybe it will wait until it develops more application scenarios like Ethereum to attract more ordinary users." He also teased that he was looking forward to it. After the launch of the mainnet this time, melons are waiting for the high point of the short market.
However, in Laofu's view, after the mainnet goes live, there will be stories to tell about the capital and futures markets, which means that a wave of opportunities has come.
02
Cloud computing investor: if you can't dig it out, go to protect your rights
"I bought 50T on Bonet at 99U/T in July. It depends on the profit after the mainnet launch. After waiting for 3 months, if I can't dig out Laozi, I will defend my rights." Investor Xu Fei (pseudonym) Anxiety was revealed in the tone of expectation. He told the chain catcher that he currently only knows that the cooperative mining pool of Bonet is Yaochi, and he plans to check the information of Yaochi.
In fact, in addition to Yaochi, Golden Hash Power Cloud, Mars Cloud Mine, Bee Exchange, Tiger Talisman, etc. are all selling cloud computing power, but compared to the sales scene that bloomed everywhere in July, the cloud before the mainnet launch The computing power market seems a bit deserted, reflecting the industry's lack of confidence in Filecoin.
Cloud computing power is mining machine leasing, which aims to lower the barriers to entry for investors, but due to its low transparency, it has been controversial.
On the one hand, as Xu Fei worried, if the authenticity and adaptability of the mining machine, if the configuration of the mining machine deviates greatly from the official specifications, and the mining efficiency is much lower than expected, it is very likely that the benefits will not cover the cost. Even some cloud computing power vendors will directly run away; on the other hand, the FIL produced by cloud computing power mining is often delayed for several months. Due to the current market’s strong bearish sentiment on FIL, investment may also occur People's actual income is not as good as expected.
In fact, not only has the sales situation changed, but the price difference between miners has also been greatly reduced. Compared with the usual price range of 600 yuan/T-3000/T in July, the current cloud computing power pricing is mainly concentrated at 1,800 yuan. -2500 yuan/T, gradually stabilizing.
"The mainnet is about to go live. Most platforms want to take the opportunity to sell more cloud computing power. However, at present, it is easy to increase prices and it is difficult to reduce prices. Therefore, it is not only difficult to attract retail investors through price wars as before. Ling may also arouse the disgust of old customers, and even have rights protection incidents." Lao Fu, a miner, told Chain Catcher that users who intend to deploy have already bought almost as early as the first half of the year, and will not stimulate them because the mainnet is about to go live. Potential customers who have been on the sidelines for a long time are waiting to see the situation after the mainnet launches. The sales market is not as lively as it has been around July.
In addition to user demand, Wu said in the relevant analysis of the blockchain that the shortage of mortgage coins is also one of the important factors that have caused various companies to postpone the promotion and sale of mining machines and cloud computing power.
03
Merchant: hurriedly adjust the layout in surprise
"There are too many official releases of pigeons. Although it is expected to go online soon, but I didn't expect it to go online as scheduled on October 15." Fang Yunhao, a partner of the open source mining pool, told Chaincatcher. Apart from surprise, the team is more intensified. Technical solutions are optimized, and the machine configuration is adjusted according to the optimization parameters of the software, and the hardware required for the new machine is purchased. At the same time, it communicates with customers to complete the visual mining products. Compared with these, the most urgent thing is the unified deployment of the computer room.
The reason for this is the official adjustment of the economic model and the restrictions of the pre-collateralized currency. The cost of mining has increased compared with previous estimates, and the income has decreased correspondingly, so I chose to save resources from the IDC computer room level. "Filecoin mining is different from Bitcoin mining. Once the machine is turned on, it must ensure the stable and continuous operation of the machine, otherwise it will not be possible to mine FIL tokens. This restriction forces us to complete the unified deployment of the computer room before the mainnet goes live." Fang Yunhao said .
Similar to Fang Yunhao, Shang Silin, the head of Mars Cloud Mine, was also surprised by the official launch time, but the official time node was not much different from what he expected.
"When I heard the news of the launch on October 15, I was at the deployment site of the Mars Shenzhen DeFi Summit. I hurried to the room upstairs and had an emergency meeting with Wang Feng and other responsible persons to determine the target Series adjustments.” Shang Silin revealed to the chain catcher that Mars Cloud Mine currently purchases mining machines in advance to prevent the mainnet from encountering supply chain tensions. On the other hand, it has launched a full-stock computing product for the mainnet, which can avoid pre-emption. The mortgage currency issue.
Shang Silin also said that the issue of pre-collateralized coins is still the biggest problem for miners and even miners. Although miners are trying to communicate with officials to solve this problem, it is not known when the liberation plan will be implemented. In order to prevent the machine from being idle, miners generally obtain FIL coins through OTC and third-party pledge institutions.
However, in view of the small amount of early release, many problems may be caused by this. For example, miners with weak software and hardware technical capabilities have low coin production capabilities, but for the purpose of investor responsibility, they may need to go to the second level. The market buys a certain amount of tokens. In the case of a small amount of early release, the value of FIL may be very expensive, making it difficult for them to afford, and there may even be thunderstorms.
For another example, some futures exchanges that do not have real private equity investment quotas but use underlying assets such as mining machines for redemption. Once the FIL output of the mining machines is not enough, there will also be redemption problems.
04
Mining machine investors: want to withdraw the machine, too pit
"We need to buy pledge coins for the miners we bought?" "If we really want to buy 350 coins as pledge, then refund the miners and count the balls."...These are all sent out by some buyers in the second stage test group of Filecoin The questioning is mainly due to Li Haotian, CEO of Diancun Technology, who publicly stated during the live broadcast of Douyin on October 13 that all customers need to purchase 350 FILs as pre-mortgage after the mainnet goes live, otherwise only 0.5 FILs per month will be dug out. One thing.
Pre-staking means that miners need to provide tokens for mortgage before encapsulating sectors to ensure that miners can complete the committed life cycle of the sector and will not harm the security of the network due to short-term benefits. Currently, the mortgage amount for a single sector is about 0.25 FIL. In the early stage of the mainnet launch, the tokens that can be used for pre-mortgage mainly consist of the block rewards generated by the existing computing power on the mainnet, the reward tokens generated by the space race, and the unlocking of official and early investor shares.
According to the calculation of Mars Cloud Mine, miners encapsulate 331,250 sectors per day at a rate of 10.6 PiB/day. According to the current mortgage demand of about 0.4 FIL/sector, the entire network needs to mortgage 133,000 FIL per day. However, according to the current policy, all FIL tokens have a linear release period of at least 6 months. Therefore, the circulation of FIL in the first 6 months will be very low, and the available rewards generated by miners themselves are difficult to satisfy the new The requirement of sector pre-mortgage will continue to plague miners.
There are two solutions provided by Diancun Technology. One is to help miners advance the cost of pre-collateralized currency in the early stage, and to deduct the advanced currency and related service fees from the proceeds generated by subsequent mining; the other is that customers can choose to do it themselves The market purchases FIL tokens for pledge, and deposits and charges related service fees. Obviously, the above questioning is dissatisfaction with the plan. Just as predicted when the chain catcher interviewed an industry insider in June, after the mainnet goes live, there will definitely be mining machine sellers who will face users' questioning and even defend their rights.
At present, the Filecoin community and core developers are making proposals on related issues such as pre-collateralized coins, but it will take a long time to land, and the stakeholders related to Filrcoin are still in deep trouble.
Regardless of the result, Filrcoin and its people have already made a strong mark in the blockchain industry, bringing more thinking and possibilities to the Internet world.
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