In 2019 and 2020, it should be a bull market, but this bull market is essentially different from the previous ones. Among them, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes are still fluctuating widely within the range, and the performance of the Shenzhen stock market is significantly stronger than that of the Shanghai stock market, but it has not brought investors a strong bull market effect of making money.
Obviously, the previous "all up and down" market operation model has become a thing of the past, and today's A-share index is more susceptible to fluctuations in the stock prices of a few listed companies. For example, take the ChiNext market as an example. Since bottoming out in the fourth quarter of 2018, the ChiNext index has more than doubled the cumulative increase, but it has not brought significant investment returns to most ChiNext listed companies. In the end, it is still a small number of leading companies that continue to lead the rise, and have a certain distortion effect on the GEM index.
According to the Securities Times, after excluding the new stocks listed last month, a total of 197 stocks hit a record low in December last year. In the current relatively good market environment, many listed companies are still on the path of falling or even hitting a record low, and the differentiation effect of the entire A-share market has significantly increased.
One is that some small and medium-sized listed companies have dropped their limits, and even hit a record low; the second is that the share prices of some leading companies repeatedly set records in a period of time. One of the most representative examples is the liquor stocks in the A-share market. The share prices of some leading companies have repeatedly hit record highs. Even though their market value is huge, they have doubled or even increased this year.
With the deepening of the registration system, the future market capital will accelerate the concentration of leading enterprises. The faster the stock market expands, the faster the flow of funds to a small number of high-quality and scarce assets will accelerate. This is also a true portrayal of the A-share market in the past one or two years.
Although market funds are accelerating the flow of high-quality assets and scarce assets, this does not mean that the valuation of a few companies will rise forever. In an environment with ample liquidity, funds can give high-quality assets a higher valuation premium, but the market itself belongs to a long-short game state, and it will never be just long funds. Behind every major capital, it is possible. There is a range of the upper limit or tolerable range of the valuation premium.
In the performance of mature stock markets around the world, with the in-depth advancement of the registration system, a market phenomenon will appear, that is, market funds are increasingly concentrated in a few leading companies, and high-quality and scarce assets have become long-term market recognition objects. On the other hand, the theme stocks that lack performance support and common stocks with higher homogeneity have been marginalized for a long time.
Take the U.S. stock market as an example. Even if the market has been in a long bull market for ten years, it is only a bull market for some leading companies. For many ordinary listed companies, the stock price performance in recent years has been relatively flat and far It underperformed the stock market index increase over the same period. Obviously, this is also a true portrayal of the comprehensive and in-depth advancement of the registration system, and market funds are more inclined to give companies higher valuation premiums.
The registration system is a highly market-oriented issuance system, and its full implementation will change the investment income model of investors to a large extent. For many investors, they are still keen on the investment logic of low-priced stocks, always thinking that the lower the stock price, the higher the security of investment. However, as the market environment changes, the past investment strategies and profit models will also undergo substantial changes. More and more investors may be in a state of making money but losing money for a long time. For many listed companies, The future is more likely to be in an operating trend where prices continue to be marginalized.