China Power Network (WeChat public account: China_Power_com_cn) was informed that Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga recently announced that Japan will achieve net zero carbon emissions no later than 2050. The South Korean government also announced the same goal on October 28. As early as late September, China pledged to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. The three major economies of China, Japan and South Korea have successively issued carbon neutrality pledges, which naturally attracted global attention.
As we all know, China’s dependence on imports of oil, natural gas and other energy sources has remained high for many years, which has become the biggest hidden danger to national energy security. Recently, the country has put forward the requirements of "domestic large cycle, domestic and international dual cycle" and "2060 carbon neutrality". "Goal, under these major backgrounds, focusing on the development of low-cost wind and solar power storage is almost the only option for China.
On the earth, photovoltaic power generation and wind power are inexhaustible natural resources, and the fuel cost is zero. All countries in the world can use solar energy to achieve energy independence as long as they have land and radiation resources of no less than 800 hours. At the same time, there are very few countries in the world that can achieve energy independence on oil and natural gas.
Therefore, the large-scale promotion of wind and solar power storage can improve the energy independence of countries around the world. For China, the development and promotion of wind and solar power storage can also realize the independence and export of power generation + equipment production.
At present, China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry enjoys more than 80% of the global market share, and lithium iron phosphate energy storage is a unique technology route in China. Therefore, the development and construction of wind and solar power storage is particularly "relevant" under the current situation where my country emphasizes the "domestic cycle, domestic and foreign dual cycle".
Of course, compared with hydropower and nuclear power, the main problems of wind and solar power are economy, time mobility and energy intensiveness.
China Power Network (WeChat public account: China_Power_com_cn) noticed that after two decades of technological progress and cost reduction, the current wind and solar power has achieved parity on the Internet under the premise of "not considering power constraint compensation" on a global scale. The cost per kilowatt-hour of photovoltaic and wind power is lower than that of thermal power in regions with different irradiance and different fossil energy prices around the world. Therefore, economics is no longer a fundamental problem that cannot be solved. It only needs to continue to advance and land.
In the next 5-10 years, the solution to the time mobility of wind and solar power is to develop energy storage. When the economic efficiency of “wind and solar storage” power is lower than the price of 0.37 yuan/kWh per kilowatt-hour, we believe that the wind and solar power already has “the economic efficiency under the conditions of time mobility”.
Some people in the industry believe that wind and solar power should "100% incremental replacement" of fossil energy power generation. To achieve "a 1W photovoltaic + 5Wh energy storage power generation system, if it can achieve 6 yuan/unit, the power generation per W can be Increased by 20% on the basis of single-sided PERC modules, and at the same time, the required IRR for power plant investment is less than 4.5%.” Only when these three conditions are established at the same time, the world can realize the availability of optical storage power “compensated by power constraints” Time-movable Internet access at a fair price. The current level is about 5-10 years away from this goal.
China Power Network (WeChat public account: China_Power_com_cn) checked public information and found that although the energy density of wind power photovoltaics is much lower than that of fossil energy sources, the land area is still limited. Based on the current technological level, it is feasible to implement 100MW photovoltaic projects per square kilometer, and the energy density of wind power is at least three times that of photovoltaics. Calculated with an average value of 200MW/km2, in order to meet the 100% replacement of oil, coal, and natural gas power generation by wind and solar power storage in 2060, it is necessary to achieve a global installed capacity of about 57,000GW, which covers an area of nearly 300,000 square kilometers, covering the earth The proportion of land area of 150 million square kilometers is about 0.2%.
It is worth noting that although this ratio seems to be high, photovoltaic and wind power have the lowest requirements on land geology. Photovoltaic power generation can be implemented on any Gobi, desert, or idle land within 200-300 kilometers of a city. , And the cost of 200-300 km transmission under high voltage conditions is less than 10% of the cost of electricity production.
Therefore, although the defect of energy intensity exists, it is not a fatal defect in the long-term development of the photovoltaic industry. The result of this argument also just illustrates the necessity of China's development of wind and solar power storage.