1. Vaccine: It is the greatest invention of mankind in the field of medicine
Vaccines have become one of the biggest contributors to the rapid growth of human life expectancy since the 20th century
Vaccines are also listed as one of the 10 greatest public health achievements of the 20th century
Vaccines are effective in disease control and have significantly reduced the prevalence of infectious diseases
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Vaccines control the spread of many malignant infectious diseases
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Vaccine significantly reduces childhood infections and mortality
Currently vaccines cover about 2/3 of important infectious diseases, saving high medical and health expenditures
As of the end of 2018, 77 preventive vaccines against 41 diseases have been approved globally, covering about 2/3 of important infectious diseases. But at the same time, "vaccine hesitation" has led to a trend of resurgence and increase in infectious diseases, and there are still about 20 kinds of diseases such as malaria, hepatitis C, HIV, dengue fever, MERS, etc. that lack effective vaccines.
2. The global vaccine market: oligopoly structure, variety drives industry growth
Global vaccine industry: small but beautiful subdivision track
The global vaccine market is small but growing rapidly: It is estimated that the global vaccine market will reach 44.8 billion U.S. dollars in 2024, with a market share of 3.7% (+0.2pp), ranking fourth in all therapeutic areas.
The global vaccine market is in an oligopoly pattern, and leading companies use mergers and acquisitions to achieve strong ones
The world's four major vaccine manufacturers together account for approximately 88.5% of the market share: There are about 20 vaccine manufacturers recognized by WHO in the world, of which the four major giants GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi, Merck and Pfizer will achieve their vaccine business in 2019. Revenue 8.65 billion, 6.20 billion, 7.97 billion, 6.48 billion US dollars (accounting for 88.5% of the global share).
Variety head effect is obvious, multi-linked multivalent vaccine has more advantages
The focus of the world's vaccine research and development has shifted from monovalent vaccines to multivalent and combined vaccines: combined vaccines are combined to prepare two or more viruses, pathogenic bacteria or antigens to achieve the effect of immunizing multiple infectious diseases at one time, and the potential market overlap brings huge potential Incremental space.
3. The domestic vaccine market: the boom has rebounded and is still in its infancy
The industry's prosperity is picking up, and the second-class seedling batch issuance data grows well
China has a population of approximately 1.4 billion, and the huge population base brings huge demand for vaccines. In recent years, as the people's ability to pay and disease prevention awareness has increased, the demand for vaccination has continued to increase. According to the statistics of Insight Consulting, the size of China's vaccine market increased from approximately 19.9 billion yuan in 2013 to 31.1 billion yuan in 2019, with a CAGR of 7.72%. It is expected that the vaccine market will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030, and the CAGR will increase to 11.30% from 2019 to 2030. The domestic vaccine market is expected to develop rapidly.
Industry concentration is low, and there is still a big gap with developed countries
There are a large number of vaccine manufacturers in China, and the concentration is low: In 2019, there were 41 companies with vaccine batches in China, accounting for 25%-40% of the global vaccine companies.
The differences in the Chinese and American vaccine markets reflect:
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The market is small and the per capita consumption is low;
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Domestically, old varieties are the main ones, and innovative vaccines are rare;
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The vaccine market for adolescents and adults over 6 years old is blank.
4. The outbreak of the new crown epidemic: the value of vaccines is expected to be highlighted
The new crown may coexist with humans for a long time, and the innovative technological route accelerates vaccine research and development
The new crown epidemic remains severe. As of September 3, COVID-19 has caused nearly 26 million infections, including nearly 970,000 deaths. The WHO predicts that COVID-19 may not be fully controlled until 2021.
The new crown may last forever with mankind. According to an article published by Science in April this year, Marc Lipsitch used the transmission data of the new coronavirus-like coronavirus OC43 and HKU1 in the United States to predict the future long-term epidemic of the new crown: (1) If the immunity is maintained after infection Shorter (similar to OC43, HKU1), around 40 weeks, the epidemic is expected to break out every year; (2) If the population’s immunity can be maintained for about 2 years, the epidemic is expected to break out every 2 years.
The global new crown vaccine research and development is imminent, the "arms race" among major countries
The global new crown vaccine research and development is in full swing. As of September 4, a total of nearly 176 COVID-19 vaccine candidates are under development worldwide (34 are in clinical trials and 142 are in preclinical).
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