1. Traffic generation
Traffic generation goal: to
predict the total amount of travel and all traffic within the cell occurs in the area in future take place , attracting traffic.
Data to be investigated:
- Socio-economic characteristics, demographic characteristics, income characteristics, vehicle ownership and other characteristics.
- Land type, area, nature, building area, nature.
Calculations
We already know the influencing factor data and traffic occurrence and attraction data in recent years, so we can obtain the prediction equation through multiple regression methods, and then predict the future changes in influencing factors to predict the future traffic occurrence and attraction.
2. Traffic distribution
The goal of traffic distribution:
According to the current OD distribution, the economic characteristics of the traffic district, and the development and changes of land use, find out the amount of travel between the traffic districts in the future.
Data to be investigated:
- It is necessary to know the current traffic volume between various traffic districts, which is the OD matrix of the current traffic district.
- The economic characteristics of each traffic district and the development and change of land use.
Calculation
We already know the current OD matrix and some characteristics of each traffic area, so we can use gravity models and other methods to calculate the future OD matrix.
3. Classification of transportation modes
The goal of traffic mode division:
the proportion of people using various modes of transportation in the total number of trips in a region.
Data to be investigated:
- Traveler characteristics. Personal attributes; family attributes; regional characteristics, etc.
- Travel characteristics: travel purpose; travel time, etc.
- The characteristics of various methods: time, cost, comfort, etc.
Calculation
We already know the characteristics of travelers and the proportions of various modes of travel under the current situation, so we can calibrate common ones such as logit models. (This step is also where the aggregate model and the disaggregate model and many other studies are concentrated.) After obtaining the equation, only need to predict the changes in the influencing factors in the next year, and then the proportion of various travel modes can be predicted.
4. Traffic distribution
The goal of traffic distribution:
the process of specifically distributing the travel distribution of different transportation modes between various traffic districts to each line.
Need to investigate data:
no additional data is needed for
calculation
5. Some supplementary notes
Since I am not very familiar with the four-stage method, I asked a super-excellent student to take a look and give the following supplements or corrections.
- Four-stage method of division. This step is actually the non-aggregate logit model, and the other three steps are the aggregate model (the Logit model is a discrete choice model and is essentially non-aggregate)