Text | Kyle
Edit | Wen Dao
On March 18, it was reported that the world's largest hedge fund, "Bridge Water", had burst positions, and the market panic was intensified again. That night, Daolio, founder of Bridgewater, rumors that the financial situation is stable. However, the US stock market failed to recover from the decline, and the fourth meltdown occurred within the month.
The negative impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the drop in crude oil prices on the global financial market is still fermenting. In the past two days, the British pound, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and other sovereign currencies have collapsed. The exchange rate of the British pound against the US dollar has reached a new low in 35 years. WTI crude oil has fallen to US $ 20.81 per barrel, which is equivalent to less than a quarter of Nongfu Spring Water.
It is worth noting that after the fourth blow of US stocks, Bitcoin did not fall again, showing signs of stabilization.
Lebit mining pool Jiang Zuoer believes that the bitcoin market without a fuse mechanism and no restrictions on the rise and fall may have completely released the risks on the 12th and 13th. In contrast, U.S. stocks that are fused again still have the risk of capital flight.
After Bitcoin stabilizes, the subsequent trend of the currency market is still elusive. What is certain is that in the context of economic depression, all aspects of the cryptocurrency industry will be tested.
U.S. stocks, crude oil, funds are involved in the general decline
One day after the rumors of a huge liquidation of Bridgewater Associates LP fermented, the founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, came forward to spread the rumors.
At 10 p.m. on March 18, Dalio stated on Weibo that everything was fine in Qiaoshui and its financial situation was very stable. There were no investment losses that were not in line with expectations and no losses that were inconsistent with the normal investment over the past 45 years.
Rumors of water explosion in Dalio Bridge
Earlier, a chat record was widely distributed on domestic social platforms, and some people claimed that Qiaoshui had burst. According to a document submitted by the Bridgewater Fund to the US Securities Regulatory Commission last December, its total assets under management amounted to US $ 234.587 billion. If the bridge water fund bursts, the market speculates that the current financial crisis may be more serious than imagined.
Dalio directly exposed the situation of its funds since 2020 to prove that there was no liquidation, including the all-weather strategy fell by 9% to 14%, and the Alpha hedge strategy fell by 7% to 21%. Rumors of a liquidated position were rumored, but no small losses did exist.
Bridgewater's loss is just one of the less optimistic footnotes of global financial markets. On March 18th, Eastern Time, the three major US stock indexes closed again across the board. The Dow Jones index fell more than 1300 points and fell below the 20,000 point mark. The S & P 500 index fell more than 5%, triggering the fourth time in ten days this month. Fuse. You should know that US stocks had only suffered a fuse in 1997 before.
During the month, continuous blowouts were triggered, and even Buffett lamented "I will see you for a long time." He believes that the new crown pneumonia and the drop in oil prices are a powerful combination. Under the global financial crisis, Buffett, the "stock god", failed to retreat. According to various media reports, from February 19 to March 17 in the process of US stocks from bull to bear, Buffett's stock portfolio has floated about US $ 80.2 billion.
The financial market was hit hard, and the Fed's 15th rate cut policy did not work. Global mainstream investment products and fiat currencies continued to fall.
On March 18, the national currencies of the British pound, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Singapore dollar all plunged. Among them, the British pound collapsed, the exchange rate against the US dollar plunged 5%, the lowest touched 1.1448, the lowest in 35 years.
WTI crude oil also plunged 23% to US $ 20.81 per barrel in a day; Brent crude oil fell 14% to US $ 24.6, the lowest level since 2003.
"Water is more expensive than oil" has actually happened. A barrel of crude oil is about 158.98 liters, which is calculated at WTI crude oil futures price of 20.81 dollars / barrel. The price of crude oil is about 146.9 yuan / barrel, while the price of Nongfu Mountain Spring mineral water of the same capacity is 635.92 yuan, which is more than four times the price of crude oil.
On March 19, the Hang Seng Index, which reflects the price trend of the Hong Kong stock market, also fell by more than 1,000 points, falling below the 22,000 mark, setting a new low in three years; even the always stable safe-haven asset gold is no longer safe, as of March 19 at 11 am At that time, the international spot gold price hovered around USD 1,472 per ounce, falling below the USD 1500 mark.
In the past month, there has been a historic retreat in the global financial markets, the market panic has not been fully released, and there are still a lot of funds that want to escape.
Bitcoin survived breaking through $ 6,000
When traditional assets such as US stocks, crude oil, and fiat currencies fell, Bitcoin showed signs of stabilization in recent days.
After the US triggered the fourth recent blow, Bitcoin did not follow suit. On March 19, Bitcoin broke through above $ 6,000, rising by more than 10% in 24 hours.
Statistics released by Coinworld show that compared with the trend of Bitcoin, gold, oil, S & P 500, FTSE 100, FTSE China A50 since the beginning of March, the oil price war led to a sharp decline in oil first, followed by various indexes One after another, new lows have been set; due to the absence of the fuse mechanism and the limit of ups and downs, Bitcoin has been the strongest in the short-term downward trend. However, since March 18th, the price of Bitcoin has seen a short-term divergence from other indexes. As other assets continued to decline, Bitcoin stabilized its position.
Graphs of various indexes and assets released by Bitcoin World
This performance has once again raised the expectations of the currency circle for bitcoin, and the "safe-haven asset" attribute has once again become a keyword for social networks to discuss bitcoin.
However, in the view of Jiangzhuoer, the founder of the Lebit mining pool, the reason for Bitcoin's stabilization may be that the risk is released at one time. "Bitcoin may have oversold on March 13."
Looking back at the plunge market a few days ago, bitcoin has been going down since the first U.S. stocks melted. On March 12th and 13th, bitcoin fell from 7780 US dollars to a minimum of 3800 US dollars. One of the assets with the strongest withdrawal.
Seventh CEO of Huobi Global analyzed that in the context of the global liquidity crisis, giant whale users chose to ship, and the ratio of long leverage was too high, which led to a series of bursts and eventually triggered a market plunge. Although it is difficult to quickly restore market confidence in the short term, after deleveraging, the entire market will become healthier in the long run.
Judging from the recent correlation between Bitcoin and the traditional financial market, positioning it as a safe-haven asset is obviously not yet established, but it took the lead to stabilize, indicating that Bitcoin shows the anti-fragility of the free market to "remove weakness and stay strong."
Zhichang University founder Liu Changyong believes that the value support of cryptocurrencies includes two parts, one is the same portfolio demand as traditional mainstream assets, and the other is the innovative investment demand to reform the mainstream economy. The former goes up and down with mainstream assets, while the latter goes up and down with mainstream assets. Since the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin has gradually digested the former demand, and the proportion of innovation needs will increase. "The mainstream crisis has just begun, optimistic about the cryptocurrency market in the second half."
However, the high risks of cryptocurrency investment cannot be ignored. Although temporarily stabilized, it still has traces of volatility with mainstream assets. Tan Chenhui, the founder of Bitcoin World, believes that the market outlook is still uncertain, and the epidemic situation and the global economic downturn are both bearish factors.
What is certain is that when the economic environment is not good, the liquidity of funds becomes weaker. After the crypto market has experienced this round of collapse, the inflow of funds remains to be seen. Whether mining or the exchange industry will face challenges, it was born in The bitcoin in the last round of economic crisis will face the opportunity of trial.
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