Treasury bonds: MLF operating rate cut by 20BP Treasury bond prices remained unchanged
Wednesday, Treasury bond futures prices fluctuated higher in early trading, the central bank operated 100 billion MLF, interest rates were reduced by 20 BP, in line with our expectations, the market is bullish; March CPI from February 5.2% fell to 4.3%, PPI fell to -1.5%, both lower than market expectations, inflation is expected to continue to decline; social financing and money supply both increased sharply in March, mainly due to the impact of delayed corporate resumption in February, while the central bank Financial support for enterprises; exports improved in March, but affected by overseas epidemics, year-on-year growth is still at a low level, and growth is expected to continue to decline in April; OPEC + agreement is finalized, which may boost crude oil market confidence in the short term, but consider When the demand shrinks sharply and the upside price of crude oil is limited; the central bank lowers the MLF interest rate. We expect the LPR interest rate to fall by about 20BP in April. Overall, the fundamentals are weak, the policy is broad and the sentiment is unstable. The rising trend of futures bonds has not changed, and more orders can continue to be held.
WTI's near-end US $ 20 is likely to be supported again, and crude oil's far-month
bottom is rising. The forward curve of WTI and Brent moved down yesterday. The Contango structure narrowed slightly in the first three lines of Brent, indicating that the market's concerns about the long-term trend of oil prices have slightly increased. Related fundamental news:
1. The epidemic situation in Singapore and South Korea has deteriorated again, but the newly confirmed diagnosis in the United States is still fluctuating.
2. The IEA monthly report shows that global demand in April decreased by 29 million barrels / day compared with the same period last year, and it is predicted that global demand in May will still decrease by 26 million barrels / day compared with the same period last year.
3. The EIA inventory report shows that crude oil inventories increased by 19.25 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 4.91 million barrels, and heating oil inventories increased by 5.72 million barrels, an increase higher than market expectations. US crude oil + refined oil inventories soared at a rate of 30 million barrels per week, triggering market concerns that OPEC + new production reduction agreement still cannot reverse the contradiction between supply and demand.
The bottom of the crude oil long-term contract gradually rose. The WTI forward contract bottomed out in mid-to-late March, and the May contract finally bottomed out. Crude oil triggered a long-term enthusiasm for May contracts after falling to below 30 in mid-to-late March. The recent forced monthly rollovers of various WTI ETFs are the main reasons for the sharp decline in the front end and the widening of the Contango structure. However, the forward contracts after June have not reached a record low, and the center of gravity has risen as a whole. Yesterday, the four-hour K line of the May WTI contract showed two crosses. After the fund moved its position for another month, we think that the May WTI contract is expected to be strongly supported near $ 20 again. It is recommended that WTI can be short on dips.
WTI's May / June spread narrowed rapidly from yesterday's low of 7.5 to US $ 1.4 to US $ 6.1 / barrel. It is reported that the Brent ETF's mandatory monthly rollover is April 23-24. It is recommended that positions with roll monthly demand be used or avoided Time Window.
Middle East to Far East freight rates dropped to 4.19
Precious metals: Gold prices soared and fell short-term shocks.
Foreign supply and demand remained tight, while domestic supply was loose and domestic gold could not be exported. The market showed an increase in the difference between the internal and external disc spreads and the increase in the gold spread between COMEX and London. On the topics such as US stocks and crude oil, there are signs that the spread of New Coronavirus has peaked in Europe and is stabilizing in the United States. An inflection point in the United States may change the medium-term trend of gold prices and needs to be closely watched. Low, there is support below the price of gold and silver; RMB fluctuations affect the price of gold and silver in the inner disk; technically, gold and silver have generally been in a shocking and rising atmosphere recently. The rate is rising, for reference only.
The relatively low volatility of the domestic and foreign sugar markets has narrowed: the main factor affecting the fluctuation of the raw sugar market in the near future is its energy attributes. The correlation between raw sugar and crude oil has increased. Raw sugar temporarily stabilized at the 10 cents line, but the bottom is not clear. The domestic market is in a vacuum of policy. Yesterday, the spot price was slightly lowered by 20. Zheng Tang's disk faced a weak inter-community shock between 5250-5330. Similarly, the market bottom of Zheng Tang's current decline is still unclear. The short-term wave band is treated as a weak shock, and it is not advisable to be radically long.
The black system shocked and rebounded into the second half. In
terms of construction materials, the demand for downstream steel was relatively strong, which promoted the continued strengthening of spot prices. However, it was also
necessary to be vigilant that the continued increase in the production of construction steel brought certain pressure on market resource digestion. It is expected that short-term domestic
construction steel prices will have some resistance during the rebound. At present, it has entered a relatively stalemate
state, the upper and lower spaces are relatively limited, and the amplitude of 10 contracts is also narrowing. At this time, more attention is recommended iron
option opportunity stone 09 contracts last week recommended far-month trial and more calls, there are already some income
benefits, it is recommended Kuaijinkuaichu not recommended position for too long, earning the band The income is enough.
The non-ferrous upward
momentum is declining, and the risk of retreating is beginning to show. Copper prices fell slightly yesterday, and the upward momentum gradually declined. Fundamental changes: 1) Domestic refined copper continued to go to the warehouse, overseas inventories rose slightly, the difference between domestic and foreign demand reflected, the Shanghai-London ratio continued to be high; 2) Weekly TC continued to fall, long-term TC in the second quarter was pending, and operational interference in overseas mining areas continued Expansion, due to the impact of shipping schedule, domestic refined copper output in April is expected to have little effect, and the mine end disturbance in May may be reflected. The logic of price operation: the inflection point in the European and American epidemics, the market sentiment repair, the seasonal copper destocking began, and the disturbance of overseas ore supply is still expanding. Macroeconomic sentiment repair superimposes the fundamental improvement in fundamentals, driving copper prices to rebound. In the long run, the peak of the pandemic may have passed, but the worst moment of fundamentals has not yet arrived, the long-term trend of copper is not optimistic, and the upper resistance is greater. From the disk point of view, the current upward momentum is declining, oil prices plummeted overnight or driven metal retreat, pay more attention to take profit protection, short-term light positions can be tested, and options continue to sell wide-span strategies.
Aluminum prices rose suddenly yesterday, with a sharp intraday rise above 20,000, and then fell back. Fundamental changes: 1) Alumina prices continue to fall, prices are approaching the first line of 2000, northern bauxite prices are synchronously falling, and upstream profits continue to shrink; 2) electrolytic aluminum production reduction volume rises, but new commissioning and resumption of production are still advancing, Observe whether there will be more production cuts in the future; 3) Electrolytic aluminum destocking continues, inventory intensity last week is strong, and domestic demand is marginally warming. Price operation logic: Aluminum prices are still a weak variety in the non-ferrous sector. The industry ’s losses are more carried out by compressing upstream profits rather than reducing production. The oversupply situation continues and the fundamentals remain weak. Short-term rebound lacks strong support, it is not recommended to chase more, short waiting for the opportunity to enter.
Early Comment on Soybean Oil Futures
Although Brazil's soybean production has been lowered again, the output has been less than expected and has been gradually digested by the market. The recent impact still comes from the gradual increase of soybeans to Hong Kong. However, domestic pig and piglet prices both rebounded upwards, which is good for the farming industry, and it is also good for soybean meal demand. Soybean meal may be suppressed by Hong Kong soybeans in a limited way, and in the future it will be mainly shocked or slightly up.
The short-term demand for oils and fats is still growing. It is expected that the supply will increase at the end of April or after May, but the current inventory continues to decline and the demand continues to climb. Oils and oils still fluctuate slightly in the short term. Palm oil production has gradually recovered and exports have performed poorly. India may increase palm oil imports after May, which will help palm oil prices stabilize.
Early cotton comment: ICE cotton fell slightly, and domestic cotton has limited room for adjustment.
ICE cotton fell slightly on Wednesday. The dollar strengthened, crude oil prices fell, and US stock market adjustments dragged cotton down.
Yesterday's domestic cotton fell turbulently, also digesting the impact of foreign cotton decline. However, the epidemic situation in the United States is still at its peak, and the prevention and control situation is grim. The export and demand for cotton exports from the United States have weakened significantly. The overseas orders for domestic cotton have declined significantly, and the demand for cotton yarn has been bleak. However, compared with domestic cotton futures prices, imported cotton has a small advantage, and the basis in recent months is still relatively high, which forms a certain support for futures prices, so the probability of a deep decline in cotton is also small. Technically, the double bottom pattern is established, and under the premise of risk control, multiple orders continue to be held.
Corn futures: Domestic corn futures are expected to hit the previous highs. The
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures fell for the third consecutive trading day on Wednesday and fell to a three-and-a-half-year low. Anti-epidemic measures restrict travel, which has caused a significant drop in weekly ethanol production.
As the price of crude oil again reduced the demand for ethanol, the US corn price continued to fall. China ’s grain farmers have very low corn stocks, and futures prices have been pushed up. The trend of corn futures is strong, and the moving average system is long. It hit a new high yesterday. It is still possible to continue to rise in the short term, with a target of 2096 yuan for C2009.
Polyolefins:
device profits remain high, short-term polyolefin prices
fall again, WTI crude oil once again hit a new low, and European and American stock markets fell sharply, market panic sentiment once again increased, PP fiber material speculation tended to end, short-term due to device profits generally high As the downward pressure on prices is greater, it is recommended that PP2009 air allocation, increase the position of 6950, to maintain bearish MTO profits.
PTA & MEG morning
report PTA: supply and demand, there is no major change, TA supply is still surplus, but the accumulation rate has declined, last week accumulated 60,000 tons to 3.29 million tons, this week will continue to accumulate, prices are still Under pressure. At present, the TA spot processing fee is
791 yuan / ton, the profit margin of the producer is good, and the supply is strong. Looking at it today, due to the recent short-staple market volume and the low absolute price level, TA has performed strongly. Today, the short-staple market has cooled down. It is expected that the upward pressure on prices will increase
and there may be a high drop.
In terms of ethylene glycol, due to the severe losses of coal-based equipment, the start of construction has been reduced to 4-50%, which is better than the previous month, but it has not yet driven to the warehouse. The risk of future expansion of the warehouse still exists, and crude oil continues to bottom, EG is basically weak Under the hood, prices lack
sustained upward momentum, and today ’s adjustments are mainly
