Changsheng Securities pointed out that the recent market adjustments are mainly due to northbound capital disturbances and lack of confidence during the bull-bear transition period in the market. With the introduction of policies to stabilize growth, the economic recovery process is expected to accelerate, incremental funds may return to the rebound stage, and attention will be paid to the simultaneous amplification of the amount. At the same time, after the registration system is fully implemented, its survival of the fittest mechanism will help the market style tend to be "blue chip", and the mid-level market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will not be absent but will only become deeper and deeper. Currently, it is recommended to maintain a balanced configuration in which value is slightly greater than growth.
Export growth in August was -8.8%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points from the previous month, higher than market expectations. my country's import performance in August was overall better than market expectations, and the growth rate of imports of upstream raw materials was still relatively high. Looking backward, it is expected that the favorable factors with a low base will provide certain support for the subsequent increase in export growth. The recent continuous rise in the U.S. manufacturing PMI index may indicate that the U.S. inventory cycle has entered a passive destocking stage, and is expected to gradually replenish inventories near the fourth quarter, which will benefit my country's exports of related industries. At the same time, considering that my country's exports to countries and regions along the Belt and Road, especially Russia, have maintained rapid growth this year, we believe that exports are expected to maintain slightly positive growth this year, and at the same time, the positive contribution of trade surplus to economic growth can be maintained.
On Thursday, the A-share market opened lower and fluctuated widely. Affected by the significant decline in the Asia-Pacific market and the Hang Seng Index, the stock index opened lower in early trading and fluctuated lower. The Shanghai Index found support near 3120 points in late trading. During the session, shipping ports, engineering Industries such as machinery and decoration and decoration took turns leading the gains; industries such as semiconductors, photovoltaic equipment, consumer electronics, and communication equipment fell back in shock, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index basically showed operating characteristics of wide fluctuations throughout the day. The current average price-to-earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 12.66 times and 35.1 times respectively, which are below the median level in the past three years. The market valuation is still in a low area, which is suitable for medium and long-term layout. The trading volume of the two cities on Thursday was 766.8 billion yuan, which was below the median area of the average daily trading volume in the past three years. In the future, the overall stock index is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. At the same time, we still need to pay close attention to changes in policies, funds, and external factors. It is recommended that investors pay attention to investment opportunities in industries such as shipping ports, engineering machinery, and mining in the short term.